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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
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9 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Three charts to highlight vaccine impact in England... Hospitals: For almost all the second wave hospitalisations were highest in the over 65s - but at the end of February the under 50s (unvaccinated) overtake over 65s in admissions... This is good news on vax impact! 1/3
Deaths: REACT released its latest report this week. In it they overlaid actual deaths onto infection trends adjusted for the time lag between infection & death and scaled for case fatality rate. Since Jan deaths have dropped off the infection line - more vaccine impact! 2/3
Deaths *and* Hospitals: Using published case, hospital and death data we see similar trends as this beautiful plot from @jburnmurdoch shows.

PHE estimates that vaccines have saved 10,000 lives so far! assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…… 3/3
PS
@jburnmurdoch tweet and tweet thread are here in full

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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Apr
THREAD on cases in the UK:

TLDR things going in right direction overall but some areas of concern for deprived communities & in schools. 1/19
Overall cases in the UK have fallen over last week after a long flat period. Note that tests have fallen too though (mainly lateral flow device (LFD) tests as schools are on holiday). 2/19
The ONS infection survey with data to 3 April - which tests random sample every week - reports new cases going *up* in England, flat in Wales and NI & going *down* in Scotland. 3/19
Read 19 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Apr
Quick THREAD on vaccine progress in UK:

Firstly, vaccines have slowed down a bit since March - 1.6m jabs last week (but includes Easter weekend).

We are now giving mostly 2nd doses. Expect that to continue until end of May... should still be able to jab 40+ by end May tho. 1/6
53-58% of adults in UK have had a first dose of vaccine and 11%-18% have received a second dose.

Wales is storming ahead with its second doses! 2/6
Digging into English data now...

Almost 60% of over 80's have had their second dose which is great.

One thing to watch out for is whether we will get *everyone* coming back for their second dose across age groups - it's important to get full benefit from the vaccines. 3/6
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
7 Apr
SHORT UPDATE THREAD on COVID and DEPRIVATION

This week @ShaunLintern highlighted the growing divide in case numbers between North and South in England.

Just adding a few more graphs as context for this really important issue. 1/5

independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
Firstly, overall there is a big difference in case rates between most and least deprived - almost threefold.

That means more deprived areas are in a much more precarious situation as we open up. 2/5 Image
But the size of the gap varies a lot by region - it's higher in the north and midlands than the south and highest by far in Yorkshire & the Humber.

This will be contributing to the higher case rates in the north.

London is by far lowest differential. I'm not sure why. 3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
7 Apr
THREAD on English vaccine supply & what this might mean for the roadmap.

It was reported the other day that England will have relatively restricted supply for the foreseeable future
theguardian.com/politics/2021/… 1/9
This is based on the recent SAGE SPI-M modelling where the central estimate for vaccine supply was 2.7m doses a week in England from April -July and then 2m doses a week. This compares to 3.2m doses a week in February & March & the previous plan of increased supply. 2/9
This means that most of April AND May will taken up honouring second doses for the over 50s.

Under 50s won't be getting their first doses in any big numbers until June and July...

What does this mean for the roadmap? 3/9
Read 10 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
3 Apr
THREAD ON VARIANTS:
Some key bits from latest PHE report on Covid variants currently under surveillance in England.

TLDR: v low levels of everything apart from our Kent strain (B117) but S. African & Brazilian strains spreading.

Full report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 1/10
Variants with the "Eek" mutation (E484K) are of particular concern since this mutation is thought to help covid evade antibodies so that it can more easily infect people who have had covid already or (potentially) the vaccine.

bmj.com/content/372/bm… 2/10
Two variants with this mutation (the Bristol strain which is our Kent variant+E484K, and the Brazilian P2) are *not* spreading, but four variants with this mutation *are*. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
1 Apr
The latest @ONS infection survey includes breakdown by age for all home nations.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

We're seeing two different epidemics by age (thx to @dgurdasani1 for phrase).

(expand gif to see corresponding dates and whole thing) 1/4
The increase in younger children after schools go back is very obvious in Scotland (after 22 Feb) and in England (after 8 March) while decrease in older ages continues.

So vaccination & restrictions offsetting opening of schools - this is good! BUT 2/4
With the release of latest long covid estimates from ONS infection survey today as well, I still don't think we should be complacent about lots of younger people reporting long covid (10%-13%).

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… 3/4
Read 5 tweets

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