Firstly, vaccines have slowed down a bit since March - 1.6m jabs last week (but includes Easter weekend).
We are now giving mostly 2nd doses. Expect that to continue until end of May... should still be able to jab 40+ by end May tho. 1/6
53-58% of adults in UK have had a first dose of vaccine and 11%-18% have received a second dose.
Wales is storming ahead with its second doses! 2/6
Digging into English data now...
Almost 60% of over 80's have had their second dose which is great.
One thing to watch out for is whether we will get *everyone* coming back for their second dose across age groups - it's important to get full benefit from the vaccines. 3/6
We still see a gap in uptake by deprivation for the over 55 group of about 10 percentage points.
In the last week, case rates in the most deprived communities were almost 3 times higher than the least deprived... 4/6
Looking at this by ethnicity, the differences are even starker. Only 65% of black Britons over 55 have had a first dose compared to 93% of white Britons.
These differences mean that there *will* be communities that are much less protected as we emerge from lockdown. 5/6
However vaccine acceptability among ethnic minorities has increase markedly since January - we *should* be able to reduce that uptake gap and we must try. As well addressing hesitancy we must make it as easy as possible to access vaccines. 6/6
PS thanks to Bob Hawkins for the charts as ever!
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TLDR things going in right direction overall but some areas of concern for deprived communities & in schools. 1/19
Overall cases in the UK have fallen over last week after a long flat period. Note that tests have fallen too though (mainly lateral flow device (LFD) tests as schools are on holiday). 2/19
The ONS infection survey with data to 3 April - which tests random sample every week - reports new cases going *up* in England, flat in Wales and NI & going *down* in Scotland. 3/19
Three charts to highlight vaccine impact in England... Hospitals: For almost all the second wave hospitalisations were highest in the over 65s - but at the end of February the under 50s (unvaccinated) overtake over 65s in admissions... This is good news on vax impact! 1/3
Deaths: REACT released its latest report this week. In it they overlaid actual deaths onto infection trends adjusted for the time lag between infection & death and scaled for case fatality rate. Since Jan deaths have dropped off the infection line - more vaccine impact! 2/3
Deaths *and* Hospitals: Using published case, hospital and death data we see similar trends as this beautiful plot from @jburnmurdoch shows.
THREAD on English vaccine supply & what this might mean for the roadmap.
It was reported the other day that England will have relatively restricted supply for the foreseeable future theguardian.com/politics/2021/… 1/9
This is based on the recent SAGE SPI-M modelling where the central estimate for vaccine supply was 2.7m doses a week in England from April -July and then 2m doses a week. This compares to 3.2m doses a week in February & March & the previous plan of increased supply. 2/9
This means that most of April AND May will taken up honouring second doses for the over 50s.
Under 50s won't be getting their first doses in any big numbers until June and July...
Variants with the "Eek" mutation (E484K) are of particular concern since this mutation is thought to help covid evade antibodies so that it can more easily infect people who have had covid already or (potentially) the vaccine.
Two variants with this mutation (the Bristol strain which is our Kent variant+E484K, and the Brazilian P2) are *not* spreading, but four variants with this mutation *are*. 3/10
We're seeing two different epidemics by age (thx to @dgurdasani1 for phrase).
(expand gif to see corresponding dates and whole thing) 1/4
The increase in younger children after schools go back is very obvious in Scotland (after 22 Feb) and in England (after 8 March) while decrease in older ages continues.
So vaccination & restrictions offsetting opening of schools - this is good! BUT 2/4
With the release of latest long covid estimates from ONS infection survey today as well, I still don't think we should be complacent about lots of younger people reporting long covid (10%-13%).