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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
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15 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The latest PHE variant of concern update is out...

TWO KEY things:

1) B1351 ("South African") variant continuing to spread (as we've seen in the headlines!)

2) 77 cases (!) of the new B1617 "double mutant" variant discovered in India .

B1617 is worrying because... 1/3
It has some potentially worrying mutations NOT seen in SA, Kent or Brazil strains.
forbes.com/sites/williamh…

This variant *might* escape both T-cell and antibody action. India going through a big surge - mix of B117 & new B1617 (location dependent)
science.thewire.in/health/sars-co… 2/3
As I tweeted yesterday, India should be on the red list (as should many other countries that currently aren't btw) *and* Johnson should *not* go on a trip to Delhi this month! madness!

*PS I meant "First discovered in India" in tweet 1

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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
15 Apr
THREAD on VACCINATION & EQUITY in ENGLAND:

I know I've tweeted about this before, but now we can look at how gaps by deprivation and ethnicity change with age groups and what that might mean...

TLDR: widening gaps but access and communication will be key I suspect 1/5
By deprivation:
Vax coverage gaps *widen* markedly as we move to young ager groups. This is not just a time effect - coverage has flattened off for all these age groups.

Access (able to leave work to get vaccinated, travel, internet access) & communication likely issues 2/5
By ethnicity:
Much larger gaps for all age groups by ethnicity but less impact by age.

Different but overlapping reasons driving ethnicity gaps compared to deprivation gaps? 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
14 Apr
THREE TWEETS:

1. The situation in India is very bad and worsening.
theguardian.com/world/2021/apr……

It is frankly insane that Bangladesh and Pakistan are on the UK travel red list countries but India is not.

gov.uk/guidance/trans…
2. Globally we are back in a pandemic that is as bad as it has been and no sign of peaking yet.

Deaths are trailing cases by a few weeks as expected but they are also rising steeply - this isn't just more testing or ok because we have vaccines & better treatments.
3. Out of control covid anywhere is a danger everywhere.

We need to address vaccine inequality ASAP. This is urgent - morally for global fairness & self-interestedly to stop future UK waves.

We'll be covering this in Friday's @IndependentSage
briefing - join us!
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Apr
THREAD on cases in the UK:

TLDR things going in right direction overall but some areas of concern for deprived communities & in schools. 1/19
Overall cases in the UK have fallen over last week after a long flat period. Note that tests have fallen too though (mainly lateral flow device (LFD) tests as schools are on holiday). 2/19
The ONS infection survey with data to 3 April - which tests random sample every week - reports new cases going *up* in England, flat in Wales and NI & going *down* in Scotland. 3/19
Read 19 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Apr
Three charts to highlight vaccine impact in England... Hospitals: For almost all the second wave hospitalisations were highest in the over 65s - but at the end of February the under 50s (unvaccinated) overtake over 65s in admissions... This is good news on vax impact! 1/3
Deaths: REACT released its latest report this week. In it they overlaid actual deaths onto infection trends adjusted for the time lag between infection & death and scaled for case fatality rate. Since Jan deaths have dropped off the infection line - more vaccine impact! 2/3
Deaths *and* Hospitals: Using published case, hospital and death data we see similar trends as this beautiful plot from @jburnmurdoch shows.

PHE estimates that vaccines have saved 10,000 lives so far! assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…… 3/3
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Apr
Quick THREAD on vaccine progress in UK:

Firstly, vaccines have slowed down a bit since March - 1.6m jabs last week (but includes Easter weekend).

We are now giving mostly 2nd doses. Expect that to continue until end of May... should still be able to jab 40+ by end May tho. 1/6
53-58% of adults in UK have had a first dose of vaccine and 11%-18% have received a second dose.

Wales is storming ahead with its second doses! 2/6
Digging into English data now...

Almost 60% of over 80's have had their second dose which is great.

One thing to watch out for is whether we will get *everyone* coming back for their second dose across age groups - it's important to get full benefit from the vaccines. 3/6
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
7 Apr
SHORT UPDATE THREAD on COVID and DEPRIVATION

This week @ShaunLintern highlighted the growing divide in case numbers between North and South in England.

Just adding a few more graphs as context for this really important issue. 1/5

independent.co.uk/news/health/co…
Firstly, overall there is a big difference in case rates between most and least deprived - almost threefold.

That means more deprived areas are in a much more precarious situation as we open up. 2/5 Image
But the size of the gap varies a lot by region - it's higher in the north and midlands than the south and highest by far in Yorkshire & the Humber.

This will be contributing to the higher case rates in the north.

London is by far lowest differential. I'm not sure why. 3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets

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