1/n Haven't done this one for a while: This is the number of expected deaths, blue, in Ontario's daily case mix, based on the avg. observed mortality from Aug. thru Dec. 31., overlayed on the reported number, red.
2/n As older people get vaccinated, the mix should avg. less deadly, and you'd expect this blue line to become increasingly disconnected from the overall trend in daily cases.
Ie: As cases get younger, there should be fewer expected deaths within those cases.
3/n So far, the blue line *is* rising, which suggests the Wave 3 rise in cases is happening a bit faster than the improvement in the case mix.
Short term: Since the blue line has led the red one by a couple weeks or so, I wouldn't expect Ontario's death numbers to keep falling.
1/n There are a few things we couldn't get into in our story this morning on the higher death rates in for-profit LTC homes, including the extent to which Wave 2 was relatively much *worse* in for-profits.
2/n For-profits have, in fact, reported higher death rates even accounting for factors the industry says explain the difference: Their homes’ older design & community infection rates.
Older or newer, hard-hit cities or no, for-profits saw more deaths per capita across the board.
3/n To be clear, older homes and those in areas with higher infection rates have *clearly* seen elevated death tolls.
We don't dispute that.
But: For-profits had worse avgs. than non-profits & municipal homes across virtually every combination of factors we looked at.
First, it was an emergency. They shut schools and the border was closed. But not at Pearson (and we went on March break.) They closed parks for the cherry blossoms. We lined up outside grocery stores. Then it was Stage 1, 2 and 3. Then it was “modified stage 2”.
We were told not to dine indoors — but you still could. They said "everyone can get tested," then it was only a few of us. Then appointments only. We all had our bubbles. Then there was colour coding. Then they changed the colours. And grey was worse than red.
Then there was “grey +” which was also a “lockdown” (but for most of us only after Boxing Day). The border was still closed, but you could fly to Cancun. Still can. Our kids went to school during the lockdown, then they didn’t. They will again soon. Probably.
2/n The problem is that all the ups and downs in these lines strongly suggest *narrative* — but for the most part, the data doesn't have anywhere near that fidelity.
Big turnarounds happen in pandemics, yes, but you won't know for sure you've had one until weeks later.
3/n Think of all the times we've heard about flattening, or a plateau, or a spike after some holiday.
You can see those moments clearly in the ups and downs of the fall wave.
At the same time: You can also draw a remarkably straight line through the same curve.