The debate on Scottish independence focuses (logically & obviously) on the immediate cost to Scotland or the psychological blow it delivers to the idea of the UK.
But there’s another way of looking at it.
- thread -
But there’s another way of looking at it.
- thread -
2/
It’s 2022 and 🏴 has voted for independence what’s the immediate aim of 🏴🏴 & 🇪🇺?
If you think about it all 3 - even if for differing reasons - would have an interest in as little economic dislocation as possible.
It’s 2022 and 🏴 has voted for independence what’s the immediate aim of 🏴🏴 & 🇪🇺?
If you think about it all 3 - even if for differing reasons - would have an interest in as little economic dislocation as possible.
3/
🏴 Clearly wouldn’t want to start in Indy with chaos
🇪🇺 Wouldn’t want to look like it was causing problems for a proEU potential member
🇬🇧 Motivation is more complex but rationally 🇬🇧 facing slow loss of NI & now 🏴 wouldn’t want to see its internal mkt shrinking even further
🏴 Clearly wouldn’t want to start in Indy with chaos
🇪🇺 Wouldn’t want to look like it was causing problems for a proEU potential member
🇬🇧 Motivation is more complex but rationally 🇬🇧 facing slow loss of NI & now 🏴 wouldn’t want to see its internal mkt shrinking even further
4/
But also politically..
🏴 Indy confirms Brexit has failed.
Global Britain is over.
On one level this is painful.
But on another it’d free up the 🇬🇧 headspace to seek what is actually helpful rather than the Empire 2.0 dreams.
All of a sudden new options present themselves.
But also politically..
🏴 Indy confirms Brexit has failed.
Global Britain is over.
On one level this is painful.
But on another it’d free up the 🇬🇧 headspace to seek what is actually helpful rather than the Empire 2.0 dreams.
All of a sudden new options present themselves.
5/
Is 🇬🇧 shorn of 🏴 & NI really going to pursue an 🏴&🏴 version of Brexit?
The biggest trade win would involve keeping 🏴 Mkt & looking again at 🇪🇺 trade.
Now I’m not saying that 🏴Indy makes 🇪🇺 rejoin more likely but rather it makes a more humble Brexit policy inevitable.
Is 🇬🇧 shorn of 🏴 & NI really going to pursue an 🏴&🏴 version of Brexit?
The biggest trade win would involve keeping 🏴 Mkt & looking again at 🇪🇺 trade.
Now I’m not saying that 🏴Indy makes 🇪🇺 rejoin more likely but rather it makes a more humble Brexit policy inevitable.
6/
A lot of people buy into idea 🏴 economy is tiny compared to 🏴. Its smaller yes - but still significant.
🇬🇧 without 🏴 & NI confirms its drop to below 🇫🇷 & 🇮🇳. Perhaps more importantly it means 🇬🇧 is much nearer to 🇮🇹 than 🇩🇪 in economic terms.
This is Brexit as little 🏴.
A lot of people buy into idea 🏴 economy is tiny compared to 🏴. Its smaller yes - but still significant.
🇬🇧 without 🏴 & NI confirms its drop to below 🇫🇷 & 🇮🇳. Perhaps more importantly it means 🇬🇧 is much nearer to 🇮🇹 than 🇩🇪 in economic terms.
This is Brexit as little 🏴.
7/
So what could be on offer?
What would post Indy 🏴 🇬🇧 & 🇪🇺 want.
The answer is clear:
No borders between 🏴 & 🏴 Indeed economic status quo to remain as much as possible.
🏴 Indy *could* be the lever towards a reappraisal of soft Brexit.
And a soft Brexit could help...
So what could be on offer?
What would post Indy 🏴 🇬🇧 & 🇪🇺 want.
The answer is clear:
No borders between 🏴 & 🏴 Indeed economic status quo to remain as much as possible.
🏴 Indy *could* be the lever towards a reappraisal of soft Brexit.
And a soft Brexit could help...
8/
A soft Brexit could help 🏴 & r🇬🇧 towards a new kind of relationship:
More than federal but with so many shared institutions that full independence is masked - a kind of (whisper it softly) EU for the UK if you like...
A soft Brexit could help 🏴 & r🇬🇧 towards a new kind of relationship:
More than federal but with so many shared institutions that full independence is masked - a kind of (whisper it softly) EU for the UK if you like...
9/
Much as the invention of the Commonwealth masked independence of the old empire..
..a UK of “shared institutions & practices” across 🏴🏴🏴 could help soften the blow of independence of these countries within a soft Brexit.
And Rejoin?
That’ll be for another day...
/ends
Much as the invention of the Commonwealth masked independence of the old empire..
..a UK of “shared institutions & practices” across 🏴🏴🏴 could help soften the blow of independence of these countries within a soft Brexit.
And Rejoin?
That’ll be for another day...
/ends
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