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Luigi Warren 😊

@luigi_warren

22 Mar

@RolandBaker

1/ Looking at FOHM's excellent data set, C19 mortality in Swede, which had a major primary urban epidemic and where the virus has been given almost free rein for a year, is about 1/15000, compared ... @RolandBaker @ElonBachman @Undergroundsar3 @KevinMcH3 @naomirwolf @NassMeryl

https://twitter.com/JeremyMHarris/status/1373755454199717889

2/ compared to this 1/30,000 number for one, newly-discovered fatal side effect of the AZ vaccine recorded in Norway -- apparently being seen primarily in young people, though the article we're discussing doesn't give full details. But the true comparison is not with 1/15000 ...

3/ First, C19 topline mortality is highly misleading because many deaths being put in that bucket are linked either purely coincidentally, C19 being an extremely common, generally mild nosocomial infection now, or have multiple causes and are occurring in people who are ...

Read 15 tweets

Luigi Warren 😊

@luigi_warren

7 Jan

@TimTravis2

@TimTravis2 @AlexBerenson 1/ Depends on the technology used. A dead-virus vaccine would seem the closest to natural immunity in terms of producing a heterogenous response, although even that would not be as good because you wouldn't get the localized protection against emerging mutants.

@TimTravis2

@TimTravis2 @AlexBerenson 2/ Not sure if any of the other candidates are dead virus vaccines. Supposedly, the narrowly-focused vaccines have the advantage of avoiding some of the worst triggers of the Vaccine Induced Enhancement which plagued the development of SARS vaccine, where prior vaccination turns

@TimTravis2

@TimTravis2 @AlexBerenson 3/ what would normally be a mild respiratory infection into a life-threatening condition -- I understand in some of the experiments with the prototype SARS vaccine, all the ferrets that got the vaccine died on exposure to the coronavirus.

Read 4 tweets

Luigi Warren 😊

@luigi_warren

5 Dec 20

@EnjoyTheDecline

@EnjoyTheDecline 1/ My concern would be that the approval process has been rushed in order to field the vaccine in time to be relevant -- and then, likely only slightly relevant in the big picture -- for a disease that mostly represents a way of slightly accelerating death from old age, and for

@EnjoyTheDecline

@EnjoyTheDecline 2/ which hundreds of millions will have to be vaccinated. I would personally take a wait-and-see approach -- let's see what the real-world incidence of side effects is after this has been given to a few million human guinea pigs, and how serious an issue C19 remains after it

@EnjoyTheDecline

@EnjoyTheDecline 3/ has fallen into an endemic equilibrium -- i.e., is there much resurgence in the late fall of next year. Also, I'd like to have better ways of evaluating whether I likely have had the disease and developed significant immunity -- a number of papers have demonstrated that

Read 19 tweets

Luigi Warren 😊

@luigi_warren

14 Oct 20

@JHouse678

@JHouse678 @TheSeeker268 @gdemaneuf @HL3133 @NoWackyScience @Ayjchan @serdardirican @_hoeman @babarlelephant @shingheizhan @notoriousFIL @MonaRahalkar @ydeigin @flavinkins @Rossana38510044 @emmecola @nytimes 1/ Interesting story about Steven Hatfill's lawyer in the suit against John Ashcroft/DOJ, a fellow by the name of Thomas G. Connolly (a recipient of the CIA's Intelligence Medallion, its highest civilian honor, no less)...

hwglaw.com/team/thomas-g-…

@JHouse678

@JHouse678 @TheSeeker268 @gdemaneuf @HL3133 @NoWackyScience @Ayjchan @serdardirican @_hoeman @babarlelephant @shingheizhan @notoriousFIL @MonaRahalkar @ydeigin @flavinkins @Rossana38510044 @emmecola @nytimes 2/ During the years of Steven Hatfill's pro bono person of interest-hood, I was in frequent discussions with Dr. Stuart Jacobsen, a Texas-based materials scientist who shared my interest in the case. We both had broadly similarly views on the anthrax matter.

@JHouse678

@JHouse678 @TheSeeker268 @gdemaneuf @HL3133 @NoWackyScience @Ayjchan @serdardirican @_hoeman @babarlelephant @shingheizhan @notoriousFIL @MonaRahalkar @ydeigin @flavinkins @Rossana38510044 @emmecola @nytimes 3/ Stuart's particular hobby horse, which I was and remain agnostic about, was his opinion that the Daschle anthrax had a special coating that facilitated its very efficient aerosolization and maximized its lethality.

Read 51 tweets

Luigi Warren 😊

@luigi_warren

27 Aug 20

@VanGennepD

@VanGennepD @ADreyzen @FatEmperor 1/ Herd immunity in general just refers to the check on the spread of a contagion produced by rising immunity depleting available susceptible individuals.

@VanGennepD

@VanGennepD @ADreyzen @FatEmperor 2/ The herd immunity threshold is mathematically the percentage of the population which must be immune for an epidemic to go from the growth phase to recession.

@VanGennepD

@VanGennepD @ADreyzen @FatEmperor 3/ Clearly the epidemic in Sweden (and many other places) has been in recession for months, viewed at the national level. That doesn't mean that it's in recession everywhere in the country, just that net-net, declines outweigh new growth as the virus percolates into new regions.

Read 14 tweets

Luigi Warren 😊

@luigi_warren

20 Jul 20

@DocMcQuinn

@DocMcQuinn First, 20% by antibodies means 60%-100% actual infected & recovered, based on recent studies that looked at what fraction of recovered have detectable T-cell & mucosal Ab but not serum Ab responses -- a finding that's also consistent with several other observations and studies.

@DocMcQuinn

@DocMcQuinn NYC showed 20%-25% IgG+ in two randomized surveys conducted by the NYS Dept of Health as far back as late April, so presumably the great majority of NYC residents have been infected by now -- not surprising, given their high death toll & the total collapse of their death curve.

@DocMcQuinn

@DocMcQuinn Stockholm blood donors were 30% positive for COVID-19-specific T cells in May (about 3X the percentage of seropositives) and the Swedish FHM estimated a few days ago that the number of infected is now about 40%, which seems reasonable given another couple of months have passed.

Read 14 tweets

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Luigi Warren 😊

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