Thread by @_scottreid

Three takeaways on #Budget2021 First, yes, it's chock full of spending but go back to that mandate letter Trudeau wrote for Freeland where he said, steer clear of new permanent spending. Some of these initiatives may create future pressures for renewal but... #cdnpoli

There's relatively little that obligates the federal government to ongoing structural spending. In fact, you have to assume that at some point provinces and territories will move to make boosted transfers a signature demand. It's an inevitable future fight #cdnpoli

On the revenue side, who the hell knows where this leave us. Appropriately, the focus is on getting Canadians completely free of the pandemic's blast zone. But that doesn't necessarily mean all these measures add up to a plan for higher growth in the longer term #cdnpoli

Where will Canada - or any other OECD country, for that matter - locate the kinds of growth that this document implicitly pins its hopes on? And Christ help us all if interest rates ever rise. We won't be talking about cutting taxes, that's for darned sure. #cdnpoli

That said, it manages to both spend a ton while not permanently packing the fiscal framework. And maybe a ton is what we need to get ourselves reliably and sustainably out of this mess. Also, if I was in government, I wouldn't waste this chance to invest when you can #cdnpoli

Second, I think the size of the child care commitment is obviously impressive. I'm really hoping it creates the sort of bargaining power that permits the feds to negotiate effective child care systems province-by-province. Ultimately, the power the federal gov't wields #cdnpoli

In our federal state is the size of its chequebook - especially when you look at its ability to borrow cheaply. So, use that financial heft to incentivize the provs into acting. I just pray the feds don't cave and agree that any damn thing labelled child care qualifies #cdnpoli

Those on the right will demand 'choice' and decry 'one size fits all'. Yeah. Sure. But early learning and child care should be early learning and child care. Build a system with guiding, consistent principles and benefits. Don't fund just anything for the sake of peace #cdnpoli

On the pure politics: this could roll out with a heavy punch. Take Ford. Even 50/50 dollars are too expensive for Ontario. But how does he tell the GTHA no to this initiative? If the feds stick with the sell-job, the pressure to sign on will be savage. He's cornered #cdnpoli

One last thing: in 2005 the Paul Martin government negotiated bilateral deals for a national child care system with every province and territory, largely using the same strategy of tempting the provinces with the federal chequebook. Hope it gets finished this time. #cdnpoli

But, also there's something the Trudeau gov't is doing that we did too little of. They're positioning child care as an economic initiative. We should have hit that even harder. Not only is it true, it's smart politics. I hope they stick to that beat. It's a winner #cdnpoli

Third, Freeland got the balance right on the budget's meta-narrative. For Libs, the 'Build Back Better' slogan is rat poison disguised as cheese. It signals social engineering. She wisely sidestepped that trap, speaking first and foremost about the task of digging out #cdnpoli

Consequently, there was a bit less narrative emphasis on this and that every other damned thing too. But that's good. In writing a budget speech the temptation is to give everyone their 'sentence'. Their little shout-out. But that's government-think, not shrewd politics #cndpoli

And it's not just the one-off stuff. If you look at the actual spending, this whole budget story could have been about climate and reimagining the economy in a greener hue. Prudently, Freeland didn't make that story her story. She could have. The commitments are there #cdnpoli

But my bet is that she opted to emphasize COVID and child care on purpose. There's plenty of time to roll out the climate and carbon-transition measures. It would have been a mistake to look too far past the pandemic at this moment. She sized that up correctly #cndpoli

And that's the fundamental takeaway. This is a pretty potent political document. It leaves precious little room for the NDP or Conservatives. Will Singh say it spent too much? He can't. Will O'Toole say it spent too little. He will - but it won't work. Strong stuff #cdnpoli