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10 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
US job postings on @indeed now 13% below last year's trend. Improvement continues, though at slower pace than the summer rebound.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/10/job…

1/
Lots of postings for jobs that get things to people. Loading & stocking and driving jobs well above last year's trend.

But arts & entertainment and hospitality & tourism have improved little.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/10/job…

2/
Postings are down most in larger, richer metros where more people can work from home and where some hard-hit sectors are clustered.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/10/job…

3/
It's a big-city recession. But job postings have almost fully recovered in smaller places (metropolitan & micropolitan areas with fewer than half-million people).

hiringlab.org/2020/11/10/job…

4/end

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More from @JedKolko

Jed Kolko Profile picture
11 Nov
The election scrambled some local partisan differences, but the red-blue economic divide hardened.

My latest in @UpshotNYT

nytimes.com/2020/11/11/ups…

1/
Places with brighter future economic prospects swung toward Biden. Higher college attainment, higher median household income, faster projected job growth, and fewer routine jobs were all correlated with a bigger Democratic margin in 2020 than 2016.

nytimes.com/2020/11/11/ups…

2/ Image
Places with better economic outcomes swung toward Biden in 2020. Faster job growth and lower unemployment pre-pandemic -- as well as pandemic-era milder job losses and smaller unemployment increases -- went hand-in-hand with bigger Democratic margins.

nytimes.com/2020/11/11/ups…

3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
6 Nov
Core unemployment remained high in October -- falling just slightly from Sept.

Core unemployment excludes temporary layoffs and remains near its pandemic high.

1/
Although the headline unemployment rate is far down from its peak, core unemployment remains near its pandemic high. Temporary layoffs are fading. Permanent unemployment is not.

2/
The temporary share of unemployment is down to 29% in October, from a high of 78% in April. Normal is in the 10-15% range.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
5 Nov
Job postings in the US 14.0% below last year's trend, as of last Friday.

Continued improvement but at much slower rate than in summer.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/05/job…

1/
Moving-stuff-around jobs (loading & stocking, and driving) above last year's level. But arts & entertainment and hospitality & tourism still suffer.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/05/job…

2/
Job postings down most in Honolulu, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle.

hiringlab.org/2020/11/05/job…

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
4 Nov
Some preliminary and incomplete thoughts about preliminary and incomplete data.

Let's not over-generalize about Hispanic/Latino vote patterns. Yes, there was a big shift toward Trump between 2016 and 2020 in Miami and the Texas border. But, details ...

1/
In the Texas counties where a majority of the population is of Mexican origin (Census definition), Trump did 6.6 points better in 2020 than in 2016. But outside of Texas, majority-Mexican-origin counties (mostly California) actually swung about half a point away from Trump.

2/
Another way to see this:

county-level correlation between % Hispanic/Latino and swing toward Trump (excl clearly incomplete counties):

0.32 overall
0.16 without Miami-Dade
0.01 without Miami-Dade or Texas

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
7 Oct
New employment data show widely shared labor-market pain. I think the K-shaped recovery story -- that the top third or quarter is just fine -- is too simplistic.

Short thread focusing on education levels, using new Sept CPS microdata.

1/
In general, unemployment has risen more for people with less education. Older workers with college degrees have seen the smallest rise.

But unemployment is up several points for younger people with college degrees, too.

2/
Core unemployment -- which strips out temporary layoffs -- is up similarly across all three education levels. Headline unemployment shows a bigger gap by education, but some of that is temporary.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jed Kolko Profile picture
7 Oct
Short thread:

Employment has fallen significantly more for mothers than for fathers. Big gender gap for parents, regardless of marital status.

New CPS microdata for Sept.

1/
Prime-age EPOP (employment-population ratio for age 25-54) has fallen several more points for women with kids than for men with kids. The gender gap in EPOP decline is bigger for people with kids than for people without kids.

(repeating same graph)

2/
This parent gender gap in the labor market started early. In February, prime-age EPOP was 19.5 points lower for mothers than for fathers. Employment fell more for mothers than for fathers from February to May, and the gap widened. Gap has persisted since May.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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