US export restrictions aren't cause of India's COVID crisis & not clear if lifting them will solve immed prob (cuz affects Novavax prod). But they will hv an adverse effect down the line on global vaccination efforts & they're already being blamed – in some cases, instrumentally. ImageImage
2/ For those who've asked re impact of US export restrictions on vaccine production, couple of articles that might be helpful
- bbc.com/news/world-asi…
- indianexpress.com/article/explai…
3/ This US export restrictions issue & India has come up in pressers. On March 12, separately NSA Jake Sullivan & FonSec Shringla were asked about it. It also came up in the WH press briefing yesterday.

Not many details other than GoI noting it'd been taken up bilaterally. ImageImageImageImage
4/ Yesterday, SecState Blinken & Indian EAM Jaishankar spoke on the phone. Neither side explicitly mentioned that this issue came up, but they did note that the two sides talked about health coop/COVID ImageImage
5/ Since ppl hv a comprehension problem, let me spell this out
I don't think US export restrictions are a good thing; might hv been understandable (esp pol) earlier but increasingly less so. Multiple adverse effects:
a. global vaccine prod
b. opinion of US
c. helps PRC propaganda
6/ On a separate but related issue, 10 US senators hv asked Biden admin to "support the temporary waiver of some Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) rules proposed by India &
South Africa at the WTO during the COVID-19 emergency"
sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/upl…
7/ Re point "b" in tweet 5 above on impact of views of the US...
8/ Additional details on how US - and other countries' - export restrictions could disrupt vaccine production in India & elsewhere (SII says in 4-6 weeks) economist.com/science-and-te…
9/ One thing that would help is to get some clarity from the governments on where this issue stands. At the moment, most of the comments have come from SII.
10/ For instance, this says "Covovax, is the vaccine undergoing bridging studies in India. The ban on export only threatens to derail the stockpiling of Covovax and not any other vaccine, sources say."

[while other reports say AZ will also be affected]
indiatoday.in/coronavirus-ou…
11/ & then there's this: "'US side has clarified that there are no export restrictions on such items & that domestic regulations hv only prioritised use of these materials for production of vaccines in the US,' sources familiar with the conversations" said
tribuneindia.com/news/nation/we…
12/ a reminder from @prash9 that this issue of the vaccine supply chain also came up in the Indian foreign minister's remarks [& the connected trade-offs that India, US are having to make btwn domestic/foreign imperatives]
13/ "'[The US] understand[s] the challenge India is facing,' an Indian official told ET. 'They are not deliberately holding back anything and the dialogue process is going on.'"
14/ GoI sources noted yesterday, and Serum Institute head now clarifies that AZ/Covishield production is not affected by US export restrictions (contra earlier indications from his company).

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More from @tanvi_madan

20 Mar
🧵 Tweeps: after bringing you "US-China relations, Mean Girls edition," I present to you....

"The Quad & China, Pride and Prejudice Edition" 1/
2/ The Quad summit did not suddenly happen. The grouping and the countries' deepening ties have developed over time...
3/ Inspiration for Quad 1.0 in 2007 came from the coordinated response to the tsunami in 2004-05. They seemed like-minded at the time...
Read 20 tweets
20 Mar
1/ Cuz of Quad, been some debate abt the extent of 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵🇺🇸 coop in 2004/Tsunami Core Group.

2005, Jt Secy (AMS) S. Jaishankar:
- TCG coordinated int'l reax
- daily 📞, 🇮🇳: FS
- initially 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵🇺🇸, then + 🇨🇦🇳🇱🇺🇳
- US-IND coord re Sri Lanka
- Indian liaisons in Thailand, PACOM
2/ I've covered Quad 1.0's origins in the Tsunami Core Group in my WOTR piece bit.ly/31062Xh

I'd also recommend reading @nilanthis et al's "Improving U.S.-India HA/DR Coordination in the Indian Ocean" cna.org/cna_files/pdf/…
3/ This was then Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, the Indian lead on the Tsunami Core Group, on the group at a press briefing on Jan. 5, 2005 (worth reading in full for the broader response effort) mea.gov.in/media-briefing…
Read 4 tweets
19 Mar
Indian readout of PM Modi-@SecDef Austin meeting
pib.gov.in/PressReleseDet…
2/ US readout of day 1 of SecDef's visit to India
defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…
3/ Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh's statement
pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
Read 4 tweets
12 Mar
.@ryanl_hass: "Implicit in the structure of the [#Quad] agenda will be a recognition that the US & others will enjoy greater attraction & influence by delivering solutions to problems than by presenting opposition to China"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
.@ryanl_hass: "...If the coordinated efforts of the Quad countries spurs China to up its efforts to deliver solutions to regional challenges, that’s all to the better.”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Noone believes the Quad has nothing to do w/ China; & denials are only seen as "the Quad doth protest too much."

But there is a nuance here that Ryan alludes to -- the Quad is not about containing China; it *is* in part about shaping China's behavior.
Read 4 tweets
10 Mar
🧵 for the many Quad newbies, who will be joining us this week due to the 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵🇺🇸 summit. 1/

For a quick primer, here are a series of Quad charts
Part I: brook.gs/3jzZB52
Part II: brook.gs/2SFiAzo
Part III:
2/ Some articles on the Quad
Origins: bit.ly/3l3Mr1R
Significance: bit.ly/3rMhcdS
Promise: bit.ly/3rBEIu7
Progress: bit.ly/2NaFwaA
Potential areas of coop: HA/DR (bit.ly/38oaSBF), tech (bit.ly/2N52pfv, bit.ly/2N3BqRo)
3/ One thing expected from the upcoming Quad leaders summit is a COVID19 vaccine initiative.

Idea is to put a positive foot forward, signal Quad is not just abt China, but also a value add for the Indo-Pacific

Relevant pieces
- on.ft.com/3qzjNGS
- reut.rs/3cycTNh
Read 12 tweets
20 Feb
🧵 Following up on the Quad ministerial held yesterday, a quick addition to my Quad charts, breaking down the readouts from Australia, India, Japan & the US. 1/
2/ The “when”: this was the 3rd ministerial of the Quad, which was revived after a decade in 2017. Beyond these senior-level meetings, the Quad countries interact in various ways (see brook.gs/3blCOXQ). This was the first hi-level Quad meeting of the Biden administration.
3/ While there had been some questions abt the fate of the Quad, over the last few weeks, comments from Prez Biden on down (incl Austin, Blinken, Sullivan) hv indicated it is here to stay for now. At yda's ministerial, the countries agreed to an annual ministerial + add’l mtgs
Read 10 tweets

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