Jon Worth Profile picture
21 Apr, 5 tweets, 1 min read
I know what-ifs are hard, perhaps even borderline futile...

... but what if the European Commission had *not* introduced its vaccine export transparency mechanism end of January?

euractiv.com/section/uk-eur…
At one level, we know two comparatively minor things happened: only 1 export (250k AZ doses to Australia) was stopped as a result. And the mechanism has given us some statistics on numbers of vaccines exported since 31 January
But beyond that?

Would more AZ doses have gone from EU to UK had it not been introduced?

Would J&J have sent more doses to the USA?
The EU is in a *much better* situation with vaccine supply now than 3 months ago, but the majority of that change... is because of a ramping up of BioNTech production, and Pfizer/BioNTech hasn't been touched by the transparency mechanism
A counter argument would be that the mechanism marked the point where the EU said "OK, enough is enough. No other bloc is doing anything other than defending its turf. Now we need to as well."

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More from @jonworth

22 Apr
Listening to BBC Radio 4 Briefing Room with @DAaronovitch explaining the German Grüne and why Baerbock is Chancellor candidate. It interviews @fazbub and @chantalS_T. It has some interesting background, but I'm not sure it really explains what's going on

bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/li…
It makes the case the rise of the Grüne was a sort of counterweight to the rise of the AfD in 2015-2017. That's not really right I think. The programme doesn't really explain the headaches of other parties that help the Grüne.
Also I am not sure you can understand what the Grüne could do without asking where they'd manage to get agreement with coalition partners.

@SophiaBesch talking on foreign policy at the end of the programme is the clearest of the speakers.
Read 5 tweets
22 Apr
Damn I'm annoyed at vaccine supply pieces like this one on Novavax
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…

I'm going to take this one apart piece by piece...
"A factory on Teesside making the new Novavax Covid-19 vaccine is on target to make the 60 million doses ordered by the UK, bosses have confirmed."

60m doses, sure, but *by when*? Without that answer on the schedule the number has little meaning
"Fujifilm Diosynth Biotechnologies in Billingham began production in February ahead of approval for its use, which is expected within weeks."

OK, good. But without any number of numbers per week, or numbers so far this also means rather little
Read 13 tweets
19 Apr
Hey Brits!

Turn your head away from some silly argument in a pub between a politician and a landlord in Bath for a moment

Today is *really important* for German politics as it will help determine Merkel's successor

So listen up...

It concerns these 3

A 🧵 ImageImageImage
Germany has a federal election on 26th September

Merkel is leaving the political scene. She is no longer going to be Chancellor... Image
Who's going to replace her?

🇩🇪 has a proportional election system. Chances of any party getting >50% of the seats are close to zero... But the party with the most seats after the election normally chooses who the Chancellor is

There are 2 (possibly 3) parties that could be...
Read 17 tweets
18 Apr
Two nerdy German coalition questions...

1. Is there any likely situation where no 2 party coalition would work?

2. If the GRÜNE were the largest party would GRÜNE-CDU/CSU be tried rather than Green-Red-Red?
On 1. I suppose CDU/CSU, GRÜNE and SPD all getting 20-23%, AfD 15, Linke and FDP 10 each, others 5 is not impossible, but is pretty unlikely...
On 2. if the GRÜNE did well enough to be the largest party, that’d mean Green-Red-Red would work, that’d surely be easier to do than a coalition with CDU as junior partner?
Read 5 tweets
18 Apr
I've been asked why I'm commenting on the CDU-CSU Söder-Laschet thing, rather than the Grüne chancellor candidate issue

I have said a few things about the Grüne issue, but it's much simpler and less controversial
The Grüne have a joint leadership - Habeck and Baerbock - but there can be only one Chancellor

The two of them will decide which one of them it will be, and it will be announced tomorrow
My money is on it being Baerbock, chances 90% to 10% I reckon

And if it is Baerbock, the amount of fuss about it within the party will be really minimal. If it's Habeck there will be more of a problem, but even then it can be overcome
Read 5 tweets
16 Apr
So where are we with #SoedervsLaschet #LaschetvsSoeder

At the beginning of the week we were supposed to know which would be CDU-CSU Chancellor Candidate by the end of the week... but we still don't know, and it's Friday

A thread to sum it up!
On Monday the CDU-Präsidium tried to bounce the CSU and Söder into conceding - by publicly throwing their weight behind Laschet

suedkurier.de/ueberregional/…
Norbert Röttgen - who lost to Laschet and Merz to become CDU party leader, but did surprisingly well, then argued that the decision ought to depend on who will do best in the election

spiegel.de/politik/deutsc…
Read 15 tweets

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