Listening to BBC Radio 4 Briefing Room with @DAaronovitch explaining the German Grüne and why Baerbock is Chancellor candidate. It interviews @fazbub and @chantalS_T. It has some interesting background, but I'm not sure it really explains what's going on
It makes the case the rise of the Grüne was a sort of counterweight to the rise of the AfD in 2015-2017. That's not really right I think. The programme doesn't really explain the headaches of other parties that help the Grüne.
Also I am not sure you can understand what the Grüne could do without asking where they'd manage to get agreement with coalition partners.
@SophiaBesch talking on foreign policy at the end of the programme is the clearest of the speakers.
And then @jeremycliffe is the final guest, explaining coalition options. This might have been best at the start of the programme.
Why I wonder did they not ask a Grüne politician to speak? Someone like @fbrantner for example.
Overall: if you listen to the whole thing it's good. The end part provides all the context, which makes understanding the earlier parts easier (if you're not a German politics nerd).
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
At one level, we know two comparatively minor things happened: only 1 export (250k AZ doses to Australia) was stopped as a result. And the mechanism has given us some statistics on numbers of vaccines exported since 31 January
But beyond that?
Would more AZ doses have gone from EU to UK had it not been introduced?
Turn your head away from some silly argument in a pub between a politician and a landlord in Bath for a moment
Today is *really important* for German politics as it will help determine Merkel's successor
So listen up...
It concerns these 3
A 🧵
Germany has a federal election on 26th September
Merkel is leaving the political scene. She is no longer going to be Chancellor...
Who's going to replace her?
🇩🇪 has a proportional election system. Chances of any party getting >50% of the seats are close to zero... But the party with the most seats after the election normally chooses who the Chancellor is
1. Is there any likely situation where no 2 party coalition would work?
2. If the GRÜNE were the largest party would GRÜNE-CDU/CSU be tried rather than Green-Red-Red?
On 1. I suppose CDU/CSU, GRÜNE and SPD all getting 20-23%, AfD 15, Linke and FDP 10 each, others 5 is not impossible, but is pretty unlikely...
On 2. if the GRÜNE did well enough to be the largest party, that’d mean Green-Red-Red would work, that’d surely be easier to do than a coalition with CDU as junior partner?
I've been asked why I'm commenting on the CDU-CSU Söder-Laschet thing, rather than the Grüne chancellor candidate issue
I have said a few things about the Grüne issue, but it's much simpler and less controversial
The Grüne have a joint leadership - Habeck and Baerbock - but there can be only one Chancellor
The two of them will decide which one of them it will be, and it will be announced tomorrow
My money is on it being Baerbock, chances 90% to 10% I reckon
And if it is Baerbock, the amount of fuss about it within the party will be really minimal. If it's Habeck there will be more of a problem, but even then it can be overcome
At the beginning of the week we were supposed to know which would be CDU-CSU Chancellor Candidate by the end of the week... but we still don't know, and it's Friday
A thread to sum it up!
On Monday the CDU-Präsidium tried to bounce the CSU and Söder into conceding - by publicly throwing their weight behind Laschet
Norbert Röttgen - who lost to Laschet and Merz to become CDU party leader, but did surprisingly well, then argued that the decision ought to depend on who will do best in the election