To understand a global pandemic we need global data.
But even more than one year into the pandemic some of the most basic international data on COVID is missing.
Just because there is no international organization that brings this data together.
A thread.
To make it concrete, let's consider one set of measures for which international data is missing.
Cases, hospitalizations, & deaths *by age* would be very useful measures for decision makers, for epidemiologists, and really for everyone who wants to understand what is happening.
For a disease like COVID – for which the severity of the outcome is so dependent on the age of the infected person –, these metrics are absolutely key.
(e.g. differences in the mortality rate accross countries are to a good part due to different age profiles)
Right now – as the vaccinations are rolled out by age – data by age would help us understand the impact that the vaccinations have on the pandemic.
We do this for Israel for example, but obviously it would be relevant for every country in the world.
For many countries *this data exists* – it's just that no institution brings the international data together on a regular basis.
It wouldn't require much work or much funding. Based on our experience here I think one dedicated person could do this job for the entire world.
That it doesn't take much funding or work is key.
I think better international data would be a cost-effective way to improve the understanding of the pandemic – and hopefully the response to the pandemic.
Look how this contrasts with scientific publications on COVID.
These are estimates for the number of publications up to early December last year. nature.com/articles/d4158…
(On top of it: Much of this research would likely also be better with better international data.)
There are many other crucial datasets that are missing.
COVID hospitalizations and ICU cases for example are brought together for European countries by the @ECDC_EU.
But no institution brings this data together for the rest of the world.
At @OurWorldInData we've done this for some international data.
Since last February we bring together the data on testing (cause only when you know how many tests are done can you make sense of the data on cases and deaths).
And this is case more broadly, much of the international data on COVID that does exist was published by very small teams of researchers and often volunteers.
I don't think this pandemic is going to be over very soon, and so if someone reads this and wants to take the initiative – a lot of good work can still be done.
And more broadly and for the future, I think it is important for the health of people around the world that large global health institutions do better.
To respond to global problems we need global data.
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Confirmed cases are always only a fraction of all cases as not every infected person is tested and diagnosed.
The question is, how large of a fraction?
The IHME model for India suggests that the number of total cases is 29-times higher than the number of confirmed cases.
As you’ve seen in the chart above the latest data from the model is for April 11.
If the ratio between confirmed cases and total cases has stayed at 29, then the 233,074 cases that India confirms now correspond to 6.76 million cases daily.
(233,074*29=6.76M)
All these epidemiological models, including the IHME model, are far from perfect and that's important to keep in mind.
Two months ago India confirmed 11,300 cases per day.
This shows the rise of confirmed cases since then.
A straight line on a logarithmic axis tells you that you are looking at exponential growth with a constant growth rate.
Now India confirms more than 200,000 cases a day.
This is how the rate of positive tests changed in that same period.
A strongly rising positive rate tells us that the testing efforts are not keeping up with the size of the outbreak.
This thread is more personal than most of the things I share here, but I’m at my limit with Jason Hickel.
I want to explain why I dislike him so much and how we got here.
This is a personal story over several years so it’ll take a bit of time.
Jason Hickel is an anthropologist who wrote many articles and tweets about me, my motivations, and my work in the last couple of years.
I’m sure there are good points among them, where he is right and I’m wrong. But some of his big claims against my work are false.
One such big claim he put forward in an article in The Guardian. It was about my work on global poverty and he claimed that it “couldn’t be more wrong” to say that global poverty has declined.
A new study that asks: How has extreme poverty changed in the last 2 centuries?
The authors estimate poverty in many ways.
Their main innovation is to rely on 'a cost of basic needs approach' based on Bob Allen’s recent work.
👇 thread
The authors write that in 1820 roughly three-quarters of the world "could not afford a tiny space to live, food that would not induce malnutrition, and some minimum heating capacity.”
As you see in the chart above, the huge majority of the world was extremely poor in the past.
Since 1820 the share in extreme poverty across the globe declined to 10%, "the lowest level ever achieved", according to this study.
But of course more recently the share in extreme poverty has unfortunately increased.