Tweet

Drew O.

22 Apr, 10 tweets, 3 min read

https://twitter.com/skinzfantrav/status/1385083584831098887

Lets quickly recap the 7 top 50 picks on that Alabama team and how exactly they've lived up to their draft billing:

Let's dive in.

https://twitter.com/skinzfantrav/status/1385083584831098887

Jerry Jeudy - Solid rookie season and yet the fantasy community is not sold. ADP Face Planter. Bad Sophomore comps. Hard pass for me.

Henry Ruggs - Finished 4th on the Raiders in receiving behind Darren Waller and wunderkinds Nelson Agholor and HUNTER RENFROW.

But yeah, I guess it was Alabama holding him back in college.

Irv Smith Jr, the Tight End, out produced Devonta Smith that year. he had 710 receiving yards.

In two years in the NFL he has accumulated 676 yards. Total.

Noah Fant nearly had that as a rookie.

But Irv was held back by Kyle Rudolph's 367 and 334 yards the past two years. 🤷‍♂️

Josh Jacobs has gone on to be an effective 3 down back in the NFL... except for that whole pass catching thing they wont let him do.

But maybe that's just a Raiders thing, they draft players from Alabama and then refuse to give them the ball.

He had 166 receiving yards as a rookie and then 238 last year. For a combined 404 yards.

Jalen Richard had 461 over that span, so I guess Jacobs was just held back by superior players yet again. Funny these Alabama guys keep getting held back by their teammates wherever they go.

@skinzfantrav

Im assuming Alabama Stan Trav (@skinzfantrav) was including Damien Harris in his 7 players drafted in the top 50...

In two years in the NFL Harris has accumulated.... 52 yards receiving.

Yup, really beginning to see why Devonta put up half the yardage that Jeudy did that year

In their NFL careers so far we have:

Jeudy - 856 receiving yards
Ruggs - 452
Irv - 676
Jacobs - 404
Harris - 52

Total NFL receiving yards - 2,440 in 8 seasons.

2440/8 = 305 receiving yards per NFL season.

Maybe the NFL got it wrong?

Interesting to note that the ONE guy that truly dominated at a young age is Jerry Jeudy and so far is the only one of those 7 top 50 picks that has shown signs of life in the NFL in the receiving yards department.

It just dawned on me that the 7th top 50 pick was probably Najee Harris not Damien Harris which would make more sense

Except Najee accounted for 7 receiving yards

That is 9 less than Jalen Hurts (the backup Quarterback) had on the season

But maybe Najee held back Devonta

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More from @DFBeanCounter

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

24 Apr

I talked about Amari Cooper on the podcast this week, but thought it would be fun to cover it here too.

Let me preface by saying Amari Cooper is one of the best 15 prospects we've seen in the past 20 years

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Commence Diving.

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And I have to assume it is because of this torrid stretch to begin the season.

Through the first four weeks Amari Cooper was THE WR1 overall...

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Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

24 Apr

I was working my draft guide and was thinking about what would have had to have changed for Devonta in order for him to qualify as Bulletproof.

Let's Dive In.

He'd have had to have declared for the draft last year and not have been held back by the likes of Henry Ruggs in his age 19 season.

Here are the flaws.

Senior
Age 22 rookie
Age 20 breakout age
Consistent excellence (didnt hit enough production benchmarks)

So here are all of the first round Coinflips (because we are assuming he CANNOT qualify for Bulletproof).

But these are ONLY the ones that DOMINATED throughout college. So this would be if Devonta had not been held back by Henry Ruggs in his early years.

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Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

23 Apr

@DLFootball

I updated my prospect process to "define" the process over the past several months

I imported the grades into my ADP trends database

I define a faceplanter as losing more than 12 spots in startup ADP from May to May per @DLFootball ADP

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Lets Dive In

2019 was a super weak class

2018 had some major star power.

Read 9 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

29 Jan

One of the most interesting debates on fantasy twitter is the film vs analytics war that wages on year after year.

I think, for the most part, everyone can agree that neither side has all of the answers. So then the question becomes "how to meld them together?"

Let's Dive In.

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Anyway, here it goes...

I start with analytics. Analytics is really good at figuring out who NOT to draft. Its not as good at figuring out who TO draft.

I essentially "cast my net" with analytics and then try to "fish within the net" with film.

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Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

28 Jan

So as you know by now, buying rookie face planters is typically a bad idea.

But what about at the NFL's most important position, Quarterback?

Let's dive in.

I use 1 qb adp because superflex startup adp doesnt go back very far. That means that good QB prospects can go in rounds 1-4 of dynasty rookie drafts. So I am not going to break it down that way for QB.

Instead we'll separate by first and second round NFL picks.

Here are the first round picks that face planted for ADP when comparing their startup ADP before and after their rookie years.

This is based on using May as the cutoff month.

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Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

27 Jan

The other day I had said that buying face planting rookie WR's was a bad idea...

But what about RB's?!

Let's dive in.

This is a look at all of the rookie RB's that went in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts since 2007 that lost more than 12 spots in startup adp after their rookie year.