I updated my prospect process to "define" the process over the past several months

I imported the grades into my ADP trends database

I define a faceplanter as losing more than 12 spots in startup ADP from May to May per @DLFootball ADP

Here's the last few classes

Lets Dive In
2019 was a super weak class
2018 had some major star power.
NINE bulletproof players in round 1 of 2017. That is absurd.
2016 was such a hilariously weak class.
2015 had some pretty some strange stuff happening. All of the bad players gained value and then with the exception of a fluke season by DeVante Parker they all went on to bust in epic fashion.
2014 was a special as it looked at the time. And gave us easily the most bizarre Generational prospect of all-time.
The things I learned...

1) Bulletproof+ is both bulletproof in terms of production AND yr1 value gains.

2) bad prospects gain value at a remarkable rate after yr1 to then come crashing down to earth shortly thereafter. IE, hope springs eternal.
Remember that face planting is basically a fantasy death sentence. That is a key part of my sophomore comps and plays a big role in my rankings on Patreon.com/BulletproofFF

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More from @DFBeanCounter

24 Apr
I talked about Amari Cooper on the podcast this week, but thought it would be fun to cover it here too.

Let me preface by saying Amari Cooper is one of the best 15 prospects we've seen in the past 20 years

But he hasnt exactly lived up to that billing

Commence Diving.
I put up this poll the other day and 49.2% of y'all think he's going to be a WR1 or better in 2021. Image
And I have to assume it is because of this torrid stretch to begin the season.

Through the first four weeks Amari Cooper was THE WR1 overall...

Dak Prescott just so happened to get injured in game 5 and Amari's season went off the rails thereafter. Image
Read 48 tweets
24 Apr
I was working my draft guide and was thinking about what would have had to have changed for Devonta in order for him to qualify as Bulletproof.

Let's Dive In.
He'd have had to have declared for the draft last year and not have been held back by the likes of Henry Ruggs in his age 19 season.

Here are the flaws.

Senior
Age 22 rookie
Age 20 breakout age
Consistent excellence (didnt hit enough production benchmarks)
So here are all of the first round Coinflips (because we are assuming he CANNOT qualify for Bulletproof).

But these are ONLY the ones that DOMINATED throughout college. So this would be if Devonta had not been held back by Henry Ruggs in his early years. Image
Read 21 tweets
22 Apr
Lets quickly recap the 7 top 50 picks on that Alabama team and how exactly they've lived up to their draft billing:

Let's dive in.
Jerry Jeudy - Solid rookie season and yet the fantasy community is not sold. ADP Face Planter. Bad Sophomore comps. Hard pass for me.
Henry Ruggs - Finished 4th on the Raiders in receiving behind Darren Waller and wunderkinds Nelson Agholor and HUNTER RENFROW.

But yeah, I guess it was Alabama holding him back in college.
Read 10 tweets
29 Jan
One of the most interesting debates on fantasy twitter is the film vs analytics war that wages on year after year.

I think, for the most part, everyone can agree that neither side has all of the answers. So then the question becomes "how to meld them together?"

Let's Dive In.
I am certain that everyone has their own way of doing this but I thought I'd share mine. If you do it a different way please share! I am always looking for a better way to do things

Anyway, here it goes...
I start with analytics. Analytics is really good at figuring out who NOT to draft. Its not as good at figuring out who TO draft.

I essentially "cast my net" with analytics and then try to "fish within the net" with film.
Read 12 tweets
28 Jan
So as you know by now, buying rookie face planters is typically a bad idea.

But what about at the NFL's most important position, Quarterback?

Let's dive in.
I use 1 qb adp because superflex startup adp doesnt go back very far. That means that good QB prospects can go in rounds 1-4 of dynasty rookie drafts. So I am not going to break it down that way for QB.

Instead we'll separate by first and second round NFL picks.
Here are the first round picks that face planted for ADP when comparing their startup ADP before and after their rookie years.

This is based on using May as the cutoff month.
Read 11 tweets
27 Jan
The other day I had said that buying face planting rookie WR's was a bad idea...

But what about RB's?!

Let's dive in.
This is a look at all of the rookie RB's that went in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts since 2007 that lost more than 12 spots in startup adp after their rookie year.
4/23 went on to hit a single top 12 season or more. 17%.

Historically this has not been a good bet to make. Don't make bad bets.
Read 18 tweets

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