I updated my prospect process to "define" the process over the past several months
I imported the grades into my ADP trends database
I define a faceplanter as losing more than 12 spots in startup ADP from May to May per @DLFootball ADP
Here's the last few classes
Lets Dive In
2019 was a super weak class
2018 had some major star power.
NINE bulletproof players in round 1 of 2017. That is absurd.
2016 was such a hilariously weak class.
2015 had some pretty some strange stuff happening. All of the bad players gained value and then with the exception of a fluke season by DeVante Parker they all went on to bust in epic fashion.
2014 was a special as it looked at the time. And gave us easily the most bizarre Generational prospect of all-time.
The things I learned...
1) Bulletproof+ is both bulletproof in terms of production AND yr1 value gains.
2) bad prospects gain value at a remarkable rate after yr1 to then come crashing down to earth shortly thereafter. IE, hope springs eternal.
Remember that face planting is basically a fantasy death sentence. That is a key part of my sophomore comps and plays a big role in my rankings on Patreon.com/BulletproofFF
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One of the most interesting debates on fantasy twitter is the film vs analytics war that wages on year after year.
I think, for the most part, everyone can agree that neither side has all of the answers. So then the question becomes "how to meld them together?"
Let's Dive In.
I am certain that everyone has their own way of doing this but I thought I'd share mine. If you do it a different way please share! I am always looking for a better way to do things
Anyway, here it goes...
I start with analytics. Analytics is really good at figuring out who NOT to draft. Its not as good at figuring out who TO draft.
I essentially "cast my net" with analytics and then try to "fish within the net" with film.
So as you know by now, buying rookie face planters is typically a bad idea.
But what about at the NFL's most important position, Quarterback?
Let's dive in.
I use 1 qb adp because superflex startup adp doesnt go back very far. That means that good QB prospects can go in rounds 1-4 of dynasty rookie drafts. So I am not going to break it down that way for QB.
Instead we'll separate by first and second round NFL picks.
Here are the first round picks that face planted for ADP when comparing their startup ADP before and after their rookie years.
The other day I had said that buying face planting rookie WR's was a bad idea...
But what about RB's?!
Let's dive in.
This is a look at all of the rookie RB's that went in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts since 2007 that lost more than 12 spots in startup adp after their rookie year.
4/23 went on to hit a single top 12 season or more. 17%.
Historically this has not been a good bet to make. Don't make bad bets.