Thread by @DFBeanCounter

The other day I had said that buying face planting rookie WR's was a bad idea...

But what about RB's?!

Let's dive in.

This is a look at all of the rookie RB's that went in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts since 2007 that lost more than 12 spots in startup adp after their rookie year.

4/23 went on to hit a single top 12 season or more. 17%.

Historically this has not been a good bet to make. Don't make bad bets.

If you are buying low on guys from the second round of dynasty rookie drafts I suspect you will be wildly disappointed as well.

Again, I know there are those of you that will read this and say, "But my favorite players different" and I get it. I want my favorite players to be different as well.

The only reasonable "buy lows" at the RB position in my opinion are ones with first round NFL draft capital.

If we arent talking about first round NFL picks, I'd say your favorite RB is probably toast.

From the 2020 class we have a couple players to discuss.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a super inflated original startup ADP to begin with.

Clyde's ADP as a rookie was 13th overall.

Saquon Barkley's was 6th.

Adrian Peterson's was 10th.

CEH was comically overdrafted.

Here were my thoughts on Clyde's rookie profile.

I am currently revamping my RB process and I think CEH is actually going to end up in the coinflip tier instead of the maybe tier FWIW

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1301023025345695745?s=20

So what does a possible ADP loss mean for CEH? I dont think much. I still think he has a reasonable shot at a top 12 season at some point in the future.

Considering his ridiculous rookie ADP I dont think its that shocking if he continues to fall.

But first round RB's tend to be fine regardless. So if you can buy low on CEH, I think I'd be into it. I dont think his ADP fall is as much of a "death sentence" as it is for some others.

Though he's still probably overpriced based on the Andy Reid workhorse narrative.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn on the other hand....

This guy was also comically overdrafted after landing in Tampa Bay. He was a fairly poor prospect.

In fact, I gave him a bust grade.

I was going to put in a "bust" gif but thought it might return some NSFW options so you get this instead

I dont have a full breakdown of Vaughn because tbh I never thought he was good enough to warrant one 😂

But one of the patrons asked why I had Akers and Vaughn ranked so incredibly differently given there were people on the tweeter saying they were the same. So I went through it in our patrons chat and took screenshots to put in our library on May 17

docs.google.com/document/d/1n5…

Needless to say I never thought he had a chance, and I certainly dont after his rookie season.

The third likely ADP faceplanter at he RB position is Anthony McFarland.

He was a day 3 pick to begin with so compounding that with a first year flop is... concerning

I know that if Conner leaves there will be a hive of analysts that say McFarland will take over.

At best you might see a shot of value and then you can hope to flip.

If you are hoping for meaningful production I think you are going to be disappointed.

I think another guy that *could fall is Zack Moss, though he isn't in a position to fall right now. He's actually gained 10 spots in ADP from May to right now.

I use May to May as the cutoff.

He's someone to monitor.

Anyway, this is another process that HEAVILY influences my dynasty rankings on patreon.

JOIN US.

patreon.com/DFBeanCounter