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Drew O.

28 Jan, 11 tweets, 3 min read

So as you know by now, buying rookie face planters is typically a bad idea.

But what about at the NFL's most important position, Quarterback?

Let's dive in.

I use 1 qb adp because superflex startup adp doesnt go back very far. That means that good QB prospects can go in rounds 1-4 of dynasty rookie drafts. So I am not going to break it down that way for QB.

Instead we'll separate by first and second round NFL picks.

Here are the first round picks that face planted for ADP when comparing their startup ADP before and after their rookie years.

This is based on using May as the cutoff month.

And here are the second round NFL picks.

If you are looking for top 12 qb's they are pretty damn tough to find in the bargain bin.

The entire list is Jared Goff.

Among the 2020 class, Herbert is a clear stud. Burrow is probably safe, as is Hurts. It appears to be over before it even began for Love.

The real question mark is Tua Tagovailoa.

He is right on the cusp right now. I think that if the Dolphins invest in his supporting cast he will see a considerable jump in ADP prior to the May cut-off.

His performance was solid as a rookie. Not good, but not worrisome either based on things that I look at.

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1351769987568918530?s=20

Here are my thoughts on his rookie year if you are interested.

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1351769987568918530?s=20

That being said, if the wisdom of the crowd shifts and he ends up on this face planter list I'll be forced to re-evaluate... 😂

It will be a hit to his projected outcome, but he still 'may' be worth it at whatever his new price is.

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1354408698089623555?s=20

If you missed the RB one, here it is.

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1354408698089623555?s=20

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1353887649971326976?s=20

If you missed the WR one, here it is.

https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1353887649971326976?s=20

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Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

29 Jan

One of the most interesting debates on fantasy twitter is the film vs analytics war that wages on year after year.

I think, for the most part, everyone can agree that neither side has all of the answers. So then the question becomes "how to meld them together?"

Let's Dive In.

I am certain that everyone has their own way of doing this but I thought I'd share mine. If you do it a different way please share! I am always looking for a better way to do things

Anyway, here it goes...

I start with analytics. Analytics is really good at figuring out who NOT to draft. Its not as good at figuring out who TO draft.

I essentially "cast my net" with analytics and then try to "fish within the net" with film.

Read 12 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

27 Jan

The other day I had said that buying face planting rookie WR's was a bad idea...

But what about RB's?!

Let's dive in.

This is a look at all of the rookie RB's that went in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts since 2007 that lost more than 12 spots in startup adp after their rookie year.

4/23 went on to hit a single top 12 season or more. 17%.

Historically this has not been a good bet to make. Don't make bad bets.

Read 18 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

26 Jan

So I do this thing every year called ADP trends. Basically looking at the ADP change for each player before and after their rookie years.

Face planters are bad bets. (lose 12 or more spots of ADP)

And hence that rookie you want to buy-low on is a very bad idea.

Let's dive in

Here is a list of WR that lost 12 or more spots since 2007 from the first round of dynasty rookie drafts.

#badbets

Now I get that you are going to tell me that player x is different because he was injured! And I totally understand the rationale. But ZERO of the guys that went on to hit had extensive injuries as rookies.

Read 17 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

3 Jan

People keep pointing to Terry McLaurin as this great example of a player that was held back in college because of his great teammates and that's why he didn't breakout in college..

Let's take a quick look at the studs holding him back his last two years in college..

2017 receiving yards leaders.

Feel free to stop me when I get to the studs

Parris Campbell - 584
KJ Hill - 549
Terry McLaurin - 436
Johnnie Dixon - 422
Binjimen Victor - 349
Austin Mack - 343

2018 receiving leaders

Parris Campbell - 1,063
KJ Hill - 885
Terry McLaurin - 701
Johnnie Dixon - 669

Read 4 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

3 Jan

It has been brought to my attention that there are a great many breakout age deniers #onhere or perhaps just some are uninformed.

Let's see what history can teach us about Devonta's chances, shall we?

Let's dive in.

As always, the first thing to look at is the overall hit rate.

I have 361 players in my database with a breakout age that were drafted in rounds 1-7 from 2003-2017.

The hit rate is:

Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%

So lets see if Breakout age can explain that

First we'll look at breakout age by age for the full sample from rounds 1-7 and then we'll start controlling for draft capital.

Up first - No breakout age.

Top 12 - 2/43 = 5%
Top 24 - 2/43 = 5%

Read 25 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

2 Jan

One of the things that I think is rather fascinating is the early declare aspect of WR evaluations.

As you know, Devonta Smith had the opportunity to declare last year but presumably the NFL said no thanks.

Let's dive in.

This is the overall hit rate, not accounting for draft capital. This is just everyone that has been drafted from rounds 1-7.

Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%

So lets start cutting it down.

Here are the early declares with no control for draft capital.

Top 12 - 32/110 = 29%
Top 24 - 45/110 = 41%

Read 16 tweets

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