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22 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
We've now had four big new climate goals announced

UK -68% below 1990
EU -55% below 1990
US -52% below 2005
JP -46% below 2013

Who is most ambitious?

Depends on the baseline…

1990 UK>EU>US>JP
2005 UK>US>EU>JP
2013 UK>US>EU>JP
2018 US>UK>EU>JP
For those that prefer ugly spreadsheet tables…
updated here

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Simon Evans Profile picture
23 Apr
The UK govt has formally issued draft legislation, making its 78% by 2035 climate goal into law

legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2021/978… Image
It does not (yet) legislate to include international aviation and shipping in the budget, but additional regulations on that will follow

legislation.gov.uk/ukdsi/2021/978… Image
for reference, here's Article 30 of the Climate Change Act under which international aviation and shipping will be included

legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/… Image
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
23 Apr
How big are the new climate pledges from the US, UK, EU, Canada & Japan?

I reckon they could cut emissions in 2030 by roughly an extra 2bn tonnes of CO2e

That's quite a lot…

…but still tiny compared with the 12-32GtCO2e "emissions gap" to 1.5 or 2C

carbonbrief.org/unep-net-zero-… Image
This is very much a back-of-the-envelope number and depends what you assume would have happened, before the new pledges.

We can expect to see more sophisticated estimates from @climateactiontr & @UNEP
@climateactiontr @UNEP Also – this assumes the new ambitions are turned into reality

That's very much a big "if"
Read 4 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
29 Mar
The world's electricity over the past 30yrs:

1990 🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭💦💦☢️☢️ (64% fossil)
2000 🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭💦💦☢️☢️
2010 🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭💦💦☢️
2020 🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭💦💦☢️🌄 (61%)

😭😭😭

Plus ça change? 🧵

(Data: BP / @EmberClimate)
Here's the same data in chart form…

Fossil fuels supplied 64% of the world's electricity in 1990 and that fell by just 3 percentage points over the following three decades to 2020 (61%)
But let's take a peak underneath the bonnet…

To begin, let's make this *even more depressing* by looking at amounts as well as percentages

Because fossil electricity supplies have *more than doubled* since 1990 – and that what matters for CO2

(even tho gas better than coal)
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
26 Mar
Wow OK, so the UK's land sector is now a source, not a sink of greenhouse gas emissions

Needs to be a sink if UK is going to reach net-zero…

What happened? 🧵
I noticed the switch because it helped make my annual estimate of UK emissions less accurate than usual

But I wasn't sure what was going on until now (and I suspect this still isn't the whole story)

Thanks to @mattadamw @stv_smth @david_joffe for pointers!
Read 15 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
25 Mar
Last week for @CarbonBrief I estimated UK emissions fell 10.7% last yr, taking them to 51% below 1990 levels

Today, BEIS says it was an 8.9% drop in 2020, bringing us to 49% below 1990 levels

Why are these numbers (slightly) different?

THREAD 🧵

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is… Image
TL;DR most of the difference between my estimate of UK emissions in 2020 & the official BEIS figure is due to revisions in the underlying energy & emissions data

For more detail, read on…

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is… Image
Overall, our estimates are similar. We both said the drop last year was the fastest in at least 30yrs, due to Covid

And I'd say 49% still counts as "halfway" (per our headline last week) – splitting hairs to say otherwise

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…
Read 12 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
18 Mar
My new analysis shows UK greenhouse gas emissions are now halfway to net-zero, down 51% on 1990 levels

Yet there's likely to be a rebound after Covid, showing the challenge of eliminating our remaining emissions

THREAD w all the details + caveats

1/n
carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…
Before I do the details…

Caveat A)

Numbers exclude intl aviation and shipping. Last yr saw 60% drop in intl aviation emissions (!) but sector is up since 1990. CCC says shd inc in net-zero goal

2/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…
Caveat B)

Numbers excl emissions due to imported goods and services

I don't have data to look at this – figures are uncertain + usually come out several years in arrears

Latest shows consumption emissions falling since 2007 + now lowest in 20yrs

3/
carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…
Read 17 tweets

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