Thread by @DrSimEvans

My new analysis shows UK greenhouse gas emissions are now halfway to net-zero, down 51% on 1990 levels

Yet there's likely to be a rebound after Covid, showing the challenge of eliminating our remaining emissions

THREAD w all the details + caveats

1/n

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Before I do the details…

Caveat A)

Numbers exclude intl aviation and shipping. Last yr saw 60% drop in intl aviation emissions (!) but sector is up since 1990. CCC says shd inc in net-zero goal

2/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Caveat B)

Numbers excl emissions due to imported goods and services

I don't have data to look at this – figures are uncertain + usually come out several years in arrears

Latest shows consumption emissions falling since 2007 + now lowest in 20yrs

3/

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…

Caveat C)

Yes, I know about UK biomass use, but most of it isn't what you think it is.

Only a quarter of UK bioenergy is imported from overseas. Drax is only a third of biomass electricity

4/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Caveat D)

Yes, net-zero is will be hard. Most progress so far has been invisible

Now need to tackle the oil in our cars, gas heating homes, food choices, landscapes, industry, farming etc etc

Tough choices. But chance to make a better world, too!

5/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Back to the details: Most of decline since 1990 is for genuinely good reasons

I reckon ~75% is due to:

⚡️less coal / cleaner power (40%)
🏭 controls on industrial + waste emissions (25%)
🔥 smaller fossil fuel supply industry (10%)

6/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Last year was a bit different, with emissions tumbling a record 11% during the pandemic - the fastest decline in at least 30yrs, and probably much longer

But UK emissions have fallen for 8 consecutive years and 15 of the last 20. Not just a one-off

7/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Last year's emissions cuts were mostly – but not only – due to Covid lockdowns

Very roughly…

🚗 cars in driveways (~60%)
🌇 warmer weather / closed shops (~15%)
🌬️ more windfarms & windier weather (~15%)

8/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Let's take each of those factors in turn

Covid lockdowns absolutely hammered oil demand, down 18% in 2020, with car traffic down 26% in the first 3/4 of the year (latest data)

Interesting to see vans/trucks less affected

9/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

The reduction in oil demand alone cost the Treasury a cool £5bn in lost fuel duty receipts (!)

(PSA: EVs will eventually do this too)

Lockdown one cut fuel use by 57% & receipts remained 24% down in January as Covid restrictions continued

10/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Gas demand accounted for around 30% of the overall drop in 2020 emissions & three factors stand out:

A) fewer "heating degree days" (yes, reflects global warming)
B) Covid cut electricity demand, closed shops
C) wind power had a good year

11/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

The transformation of the UK's electricity sector continues apace, with wind up a fifth last year and renewables outpacing fossil fuels for the 1st time ever

12/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

I love this chart

It shows how dramatically the UK's electricity sector has changed over the past century

13/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

BUT worth saying UK emissions likely to rebound in 2021 or 2022 as economy bounces back from Covid

We won't get to net-zero without structural change:

🚗 oil in cars
🔥 gas heating homes
🥩 food on plates
🏭 industry too

14/

HT @Peters_Glen for chart

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Still– it's amazing that UK CO2 emissions are now at their lowest levels since 1879, the year Edison applied to patent his lightbulb & Britain was at war with the Zulus

15/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

…and on a per capita basis, the UK's emissions are now just above the global average

Less than US or China – but still 3x India

16/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…

Finally, if you have questions I will try to answer here but I'd also really encourage you to read my full article, which has lots more nuance than it's possible to include on Twitter, even in a 17-tweet thread!

17/ends

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…