The world's electricity over the past 30yrs:

1990 🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭💦💦☢️☢️ (64% fossil)
2000 🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭💦💦☢️☢️
2010 🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭💦💦☢️
2020 🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭🏭💦💦☢️🌄 (61%)

😭😭😭

Plus ça change? 🧵

(Data: BP / @EmberClimate)
Here's the same data in chart form…

Fossil fuels supplied 64% of the world's electricity in 1990 and that fell by just 3 percentage points over the following three decades to 2020 (61%)
But let's take a peak underneath the bonnet…

To begin, let's make this *even more depressing* by looking at amounts as well as percentages

Because fossil electricity supplies have *more than doubled* since 1990 – and that what matters for CO2

(even tho gas better than coal)
Now…did you see the dip in the last chart?

That's where things start to get interesting

Because last year, coal generation fell by the largest amount on record (-350TWh, UK's annual demand)

And that broke a record decline set just a year earlier
Some of the 2020 picture is down to Covid – but that obviously doesn't explain 2019

So – there's a structural shift going on too

Can you see what it is?
Wind and solar started off small

But in 2020 they grew faster than ever before, adding a nearly UK-sized chunk of clean electricity (315TWh)

And they've seen record-breaking growth in almost every year since 2000
Put it all together and we see a different picture

The world's electricity system is being transformed at an accelerating pace

In a single decade, wind & solar have gained 8 percentage points of the global mix, up from 1.8 to 9.4%

And coal is down 6 points, from 40 to 34%
Where next?

The IEA says solar is *already* the "cheapest electricity in history"

It says renewables will meet 80% of the increase in demand over the decade ahead

And they will overtake coal as the world's top electricity source within 5yrs
<was delayed by 🥮>

Final thought – as ever, the world remains a very long way from the path towards 1.5 or 2C

That's true in the electricity sector, where progress is accelerating

And even more so for transport, industry, buildings etc

carbonbrief.org/unep-net-zero-…

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More from @DrSimEvans

26 Mar
Wow OK, so the UK's land sector is now a source, not a sink of greenhouse gas emissions

Needs to be a sink if UK is going to reach net-zero…

What happened? 🧵
I noticed the switch because it helped make my annual estimate of UK emissions less accurate than usual

But I wasn't sure what was going on until now (and I suspect this still isn't the whole story)

Thanks to @mattadamw @stv_smth @david_joffe for pointers!
Read 15 tweets
25 Mar
Last week for @CarbonBrief I estimated UK emissions fell 10.7% last yr, taking them to 51% below 1990 levels

Today, BEIS says it was an 8.9% drop in 2020, bringing us to 49% below 1990 levels

Why are these numbers (slightly) different?

THREAD 🧵

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is… Image
TL;DR most of the difference between my estimate of UK emissions in 2020 & the official BEIS figure is due to revisions in the underlying energy & emissions data

For more detail, read on…

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is… Image
Overall, our estimates are similar. We both said the drop last year was the fastest in at least 30yrs, due to Covid

And I'd say 49% still counts as "halfway" (per our headline last week) – splitting hairs to say otherwise

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…
Read 12 tweets
18 Mar
My new analysis shows UK greenhouse gas emissions are now halfway to net-zero, down 51% on 1990 levels

Yet there's likely to be a rebound after Covid, showing the challenge of eliminating our remaining emissions

THREAD w all the details + caveats

1/n

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…
Before I do the details…

Caveat A)

Numbers exclude intl aviation and shipping. Last yr saw 60% drop in intl aviation emissions (!) but sector is up since 1990. CCC says shd inc in net-zero goal

2/

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-is…
Caveat B)

Numbers excl emissions due to imported goods and services

I don't have data to look at this – figures are uncertain + usually come out several years in arrears

Latest shows consumption emissions falling since 2007 + now lowest in 20yrs

3/

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…
Read 17 tweets
9 Dec 20
Rocking baby so took the chance to read this excellent summary of mega new @theCCCuk net-zero- consistent climate advice for UK, by my @CarbonBrief colleagues.

Some v striking aspects beyond headline target recommendation of 78% cut by 2035.

My highlights in next tweets.

1/5
➡️proposed new 78% goal by 2035 is 2x as fast as old 80% by 2050
➡️bye-bye "net carbon account" (🙏🙏) you won't be missed (v impt but if it means nothing to you, count yourself lucky)
➡️advice offers several paths to net-zero, w/ UK hitting NZ as early as ~2042 (see chart)

2/5
➡️pathways include more significant behaviour change eg on diet
➡️avg annual net cost to 2050 seen 3x lower than in last yr's advice (~£16b vs ~£50b/yr, see chart, tho baby brain so could be reading wrong)
➡️costs (=investment!) seen yielding net GAIN for GDP overall

3/5
Read 6 tweets
18 Nov 20
NEW

UK govt has published 38pp doc on its 10-point climate plan, with numbers.

Adding them up, it looks like the new measures would only close 55% of the gap to meeting UK's 4th/5th carbon budgets…even before thinking about net zero ambition.

gov.uk/government/pub… Image
Here's my analysis of the plan from last night

Here's the latest government projections showing the ambition gap before the plan came out

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Nov 20
++NEW++

Boris Johnson 10point UK plan for "green industrial revolution" is out

by 2030
🚗petrol/diesel ban
🌬️40GW offshore
🔋"aim" for 5GW hydrogen
🏭4 CCS clusters

++
⚛️£ for big/small nuclear
🏠heat pump target, retrofit £
++more

Is it a lot? ✅
Enough for net-zero? ❌

1/
So how has UK been doing vs climate goals?

The story in two charts:

✅ CO2 down 1/3 in a decade
❌ off track against future carbon targets

Why?

UK ditched coal power but made little progress on transport, buildings etc etc

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-risks-e…

2/
There's been a growing "policy gap" between where UK is heading vs where it needs to be on climate

Basically cos UK hasn't had a credible attempt at a plan for years

In latest govt projections, the gap grew again & was larger than ever…

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

3/
Read 28 tweets

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