TL;DR most of the difference between my estimate of UK emissions in 2020 & the official BEIS figure is due to revisions in the underlying energy & emissions data
Numbers exclude intl aviation and shipping. Last yr saw 60% drop in intl aviation emissions (!) but sector is up since 1990. CCC says shd inc in net-zero goal
Rocking baby so took the chance to read this excellent summary of mega new @theCCCuk net-zero- consistent climate advice for UK, by my @CarbonBrief colleagues.
Some v striking aspects beyond headline target recommendation of 78% cut by 2035.
➡️proposed new 78% goal by 2035 is 2x as fast as old 80% by 2050
➡️bye-bye "net carbon account" (🙏🙏) you won't be missed (v impt but if it means nothing to you, count yourself lucky)
➡️advice offers several paths to net-zero, w/ UK hitting NZ as early as ~2042 (see chart)
2/5
➡️pathways include more significant behaviour change eg on diet
➡️avg annual net cost to 2050 seen 3x lower than in last yr's advice (~£16b vs ~£50b/yr, see chart, tho baby brain so could be reading wrong)
➡️costs (=investment!) seen yielding net GAIN for GDP overall
UK govt has published 38pp doc on its 10-point climate plan, with numbers.
Adding them up, it looks like the new measures would only close 55% of the gap to meeting UK's 4th/5th carbon budgets…even before thinking about net zero ambition.