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Rijo M. John Profile picture
@RijoMJohn
Apr 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Some epi models predict 8L-10L daily #COVID19 cases in India in the next 2-3 weeks. In all likelihood, India is already having that many daily infections. However, will India ever report that many daily new cases?

My guess: our reported cases will not go >5L to 6L!

why?

1/4
The daily growth of tests has been much lower than that of daily cases for the past 1 month.

The avg. TPR now is 18%. Our avg. daily testing now is 16L.

At the current TPR, it'd take 33L daily tests to report 6L cases, i.e., more than double the current daily testing.

2/4 Image
TPR has also been on a steady growth path & even if we assume the TPR to reach 20%-25% in the coming weeks, it'd need 32L to 40L daily testing for us to report 8L cases. I believe, it is nearly impossible at the current level of testing & its rate of growth.

3/4
At 20%-25% TPR, we cold well be reporting 5L daily new cases in the next 3 weeks time which only takes about 20L to 25L testing. This is a more realistic testing target in the next 2-3 weeks given our current level of testing & its growth.

4/4

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More from @RijoMJohn

Rijo M. John Profile picture
Dec 8, 2023
The schools in my area remain closed today because the Chief Minister of my state is traveling on a custom-modified BharatBenz luxury coach with many of his ministers for a public outreach program that purportedly aims to highlight the government's achievements to the public.
1/4 Image
For the past few days, I've been hearing announcements through loudspeakers mounted on moving vehicles about this grand bus tour with a cavalcade through our areas. Schools in respective areas will remain closed as it passes through all 140 assembly constituencies of Kerala.
2/4
While the opposition @INCKerala has been largely silent & content with trolling via social media, the court has emerged as a saving grace, commendably compelling the government to rescind many of its excessively absurd directives aimed at enhancing its outreach.
3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
Jun 30, 2022
"Where Mahalanobis and India led, the rest of the world has followed, so that today, most countries have a recent household income or expenditure survey. Most countries can only envy India in its statistical capacity" Wrote Prof. Angus Deaton, a Nobel laureate in economics.
+ Image
He was writing about India's National Sample Survey, established in 1950. Hindustan Times newspaper in 1953 hailed it as "the biggest and most comprehensive sampling inquiry ever undertaken in any country in the world".
+
Economists TN Srinivasan, Rohini Somanathan, Pranab Bardhan and another Nobel-winner Abhijit Banerjee have since argued that there is "no other instance of an entirely homegrown institution in a developing country becoming a world leader in a large field of general interest".
+
Read 7 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
Feb 4, 2022
*⃣Thread on #COVID19 deaths*⃣
Officially reported C19 deaths in India crossed half a million (500087) although many studies estimate the true number to be between 3-4 million.

This chart shows % share of reported deaths & compares it with the % adult population in each state.
1/
Some states stand out on this chart:
#Kerala with only 2.84% of adults has reported 11.3% of all deaths.
#Maharashtra with 9.7% adults reported 28.6% of deaths.
#Uttarpradesh with 15.7% of adults reported only 4.7% of deaths.
#Bihar w/ 7.8% adults reported just 2.5% of deaths.
2/
#Gujarat with 5.2% adults reported only 2.1% deaths.
#Rajasthan with 5.5% adults reported just 1.9% of deaths.
#Telangana with 3% adults reported only 0.8% deaths.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
Aug 26, 2021
All the focus is on #Kerala's #COVID19 cases as it contributed ~68% of new cases in India y'day.

Politically, it's become a major tool of attack against the state & its government.

This thread tries to make some sense of the COVID19 numbers from Kerala.

1/
Many are asking why Kerala is reporting so many cases while the rest of India seems to have flattened it.

Yet, I'm actually surprised why Kerala is reporting only so many cases when it should be actually reporting 40K+ daily cases already.

2/
The current rise in cases was inevitable with the somewhat irrational lockdown relaxations & increased mobility that is visible over the past several weeks. It is only the reduced testing that is still holding the reported cases well below 40K.


3/
Read 17 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
Aug 4, 2021
Prof. @MenonBioPhysics, @nebuer42, & I prepared a set of recommendations on #Kerala's #COVID19 management, part of which was appeared in today's @Malayla_Manoram.

It pertains to suggested changes in the current lockdown policy of the state, vaccinations, etc.
1/
Recommendations on lockdown.
2/
Recommendations on vaccination.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Rijo M. John Profile picture
Jul 30, 2021
This thread on why #Kerala’s #COVID19 numbers still not falling & my subsequent tweet on ICMR 4th serosurvey has exponentially increased the level of troll activity on my TL

I love data & let me dispel more misconceptions with data so the trolls can keep earning their bread.
1/
First of all, I feel pity for these trolls wasting their time on a state whose healthcare infra has never collapsed at any time during this pandemic.

Here's the current usage of health infra in Kerala. Don't you worry, the state will sail through even at 40K daily cases.
2/
One major argument against my original thread was that I used an old ICMR serosurvey. Yes, because a new one was not yet available. When it became available, it didn't change a thing. See the article I wrote deriving same conclusions using 4th survey.
3/
 science.thewire.in/health/why-is-…
Read 14 tweets

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