So @MLP_officiel has ostensibly abandoned her 2017 plan to leave the EU/Euro - “Frexit”. But if you go to the official website of her “Rassemblement National“, there's nothing in way of new policies. All the old ideas - & supposedly abandoned program of 2017 - is still there 1/
The referendum on leaving EU is still there. The repudiation of Euro to “re-establish a national currency adapted to our own economy as a tool of competitiveness” is still there.  Retirement at 60 is still there. Massive cuts in payroll taxes for small businesses still there 2/
Big, uncosted new investments in R&D are still there. The promise to enormously reduce inheritance taxes is still there. The promise of “re-industrialisation” through massive public investments by a “strategic state” is still there. “Intelligent protectionism” is still there 3/
Reserving public contracts for French businesses is still there. Maintaining the 35 hour week is still there. Le Pen's program was already a big mess in 2017 – a jumble of left-leaning state intervention & right-leaning tax cuts - but these ideas are even more incoherent now 4/
Because many - if not all of the above - depend upon leaving the EU Single Market & single currency – something @MLP_officiel has now officially abandoned. They are all based on “national preference” and the rejection of EU law 5/
All very odd. @MLP_officiel officials don't have good reasons to explain this glaring discrepancy. Two years since @MLP_officiel officially abandoned “Frexit”, she seems to have developed no new ideas to replace the core parts of her 2017 program 6/
I suspect it's because she's lazy, unwilling & unable to take on detail (remember Le Pen vs @EmmanuelMacron debate in 2017)? As @PedderSophie argued, the closer Le Pen gets to @Elysee the more scrutiny on her there will be. This will be one of her biggest weaknesses next yr
ENDS

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More from @Mij_Europe

12 Apr
Lots of media reports that UK & EU are edging closer towards a deal on the Protocol. I'm very sceptical. The gaps between the two remain substantive & substantial; indeed the press reports have been described to me as “surprising“. Short thread 1/
The gaps aren't only on SPS, where there's no meeting of the minds. There's well over 20 substantive issues to resolve & no agreement on whom the onus lies to fix them 2/
The EU wants a “roadmap“ from UK. HMG only agreed to a “work program“. The diff isn't semantics: the first implies all obligations fall on UK; the second it's a joint endeavour. The compromise “road plan” won't resolve this underlying problem 3/
Read 7 tweets
7 Apr
Lots of buzz in Paris/Fr today as @EPhilippe_LH publishes his book on his experiences as PM between May 17 & July 20 under @EmmanuelMacron. Lots already trailed in Fr press & Philippe has been teasingly non-committal about his Pres ambitions. People in Macron land are worried 1/6
Some close to Macron think Philippe may emerge as a rival (despite a gentleman's understanding between the two he won't compete with his former boss). Others think he's being coy to help Macron - subtracting attention from recently launched campaign of @xavierbertrand 2/6
I think Philippe will only run in very specific circumstances (one eg, he could emerge as the figurehead of a “dump Macron” move by establishment worried Le Pen will take second round) 3/6
Read 6 tweets
1 Apr
Although @EmmanuelMacron approval rating is down by 2 points to 39% in latest monthly Paris-Match Ifop poll, I think @Elysee will be pretty happy with these scores 1/4
parismatch.com/Actu/Sondage-P…
True, other recent polls show a similar modest fall. And all were taken before last night’s announcement of a “lockdown light” for whole of France. But numbers cd have been much worse - considering severity of new UK-variant driven surge in Covid cases & acute cases in Fr 2/4
Macron is paying, but not paying severely yet, for his decision to reject a third lockdown in late Jan. But a year from elections, he is still better placed than any French President this late in their term - for several decades 3/4
Read 4 tweets
26 Mar
The UK Govt led by @BorisJohnson isn't bothered about EU. “Global Britain” is about other parts of world eg US & Indo-Pacific. Its domestic agenda is about “levelling up”. Yet the very success of these initiatives depend on a more productive relationship with EU

Thread 1/
There are many eg's where influence & impact of Global Britain would be enhanced by a more collaborative dynamic with EU. Most obvious: Govt's desire to work closely with @JoeBiden. He's been clear he expects HMG to honour WA, TCA & not jeopardise GFA 2/
HMG also has strong interest in working with EU (& US) to edge up global climate standards. A political success at COP26 in Glasgow in Nov would be big vindication for the Global Britain Johnson wants to lead. Yet it can only realistically be achieved by working with EU 3/
Read 15 tweets
15 Mar
V interesting interview by @VJMallet & @DavidKeo in today's @FT. The French interior minister Gérald Darmanin sails close to the wind sometimes, but there’s nothing here which is incompatible with Macron’s balanced approach to radical Islam 1/

ft.com/content/4050f0…
Darmanin says that his approach is intended to prevent more French people from being tempted by Lepennism. Is that the same thing as running after far-right voters, as he & Macron are sometimes accused of doing? I don't think so 2/
His declared aim is to challenge Le Pen on her own ground to dissuade wavering voters from voting for the far right. Some may find that shocking. But why? 3/
Read 5 tweets
15 Mar
The EU Ambassador (“Coreper“) & Sherpa nexus has always been the key channel for getting stuff done in Europe. But HMG no longer sits in Coreper & @BorisJohnson no longer has a Europe Sherpa. All EU roads instead now lead to Frost - who sits in Cabinet. This isn't good 1/
It means Lindsay Appleby, HMG's new EU Ambo, has a much harder job in Bxl - less access to his EU peers than his predecessors; a more hierarchical set of relationships in London with just a direct line up to Frost 2/
The UK & EU are also currently arguing about the status of the EU delegation in London; this has further impacted access of HMG in Bxl. In short term, this will certainly aggravate the ability to find joint solutions to frictions on GB-NI border 3/
Read 5 tweets

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