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Jacob F Kirkegaard

15 Mar, 10 tweets, 8 min read

@PIIE

Hvad skal EU - og derfor DK - goere for at undgaa at den nuvaerende vaccine situation gentages i en fremtidig pandemi som naeppe er 100aar vaek? Det drejer sig om penge og om at EU har nok af dem fra start - mit forslag fra @PIIE + traad #DKpol #dkmedier piie.com/blogs/realtime…

@Spolitik

EU har allerede en af verdens stoerste pharma-sektorer og er verdens stoerste producent/eksportoer af vacciner, saa alle ingredienserne er her allerede. Den tilstraekkelige mobilisering kraever blot en mere offensiv EU politik end noget stoerre parti i DK @Spolitik @venstredk 2/9

har haft fantasi til i aartier - desvaerre! Enhver global pandemi vil altid give flaskehalse og alles-kamp-mod-alle saa snart en vaccine er udviklet. Vacciner er risikable og dyre at udvikle, hvorfor indkoeberen skal have evnen til at tage store finansielle risici saa tidligt 3/9

@EU_Commission

som muligt. Det havde USA med Operation Warp Speed (budget $18mia), UK/ISR allerede i foraaret 2020. MS - med DK's stoette - gav imidlertid kun @EU_Commission EUR2.7mia sidst i juni, hvortil dog skal laegges MS's betalinger for leverede vacciner. Naar det drejer sig om 4/9

@EU_Commission

at sikre uvaegerligt knappe vaccine-leverancer med det samme er det imidlertid "upfront cash" som taeller, og MS med DK's stoette gav IKKE @EU_Commission tilstraekkeligt med midler da det gjalt sidste sommer. Vaccine-situationen idag er derfor primaert grundet i MS inkl. DK 5/9

@Statsmin

"sparsommelighed" mens andre mere fremsynede lande brugte de penge der var noedvendige saa tidligt som muligt. INGEN futil "vaccine-tur" til ISR kan slette effekten af @Statsmin og de andre nationale EU ledere's manglende lederskab/fremsyn da det gjalt og risici skulle tages 6/9

@EU_Commission

Derfor foreslaar jeg at MS giver @EU_Commission en konditionel men direkte adgang til at udstede op til EUR20mia i ny faelles gaaeld, oeremaerket til EU's vaccine R&D og produktion. Adgang til pengene kommer naar WHO har erklaeret en global pandemi, og det forventes at denne 7/9

ogsaa rammer EU's befolkninger. En erfaren udefrakommende pharma/PE-leder ansaettes yderligere til at styre investeringerne. Det er naivt at tro at DK selv vil kunne staa for processen naeste gang - men EU kan sagtens hvis vi bare er villige til at bruge pengene med det samme 8/9

og har politisk fremsyn nok til at se at den europaeiske loesning er klart den bedste. VACCINER > NEDLUKNING! Man kan jo haabe at statsministerens parliamentariske grundlag har bedre doemmekraft end hende selv fremadrettet. END piie.com/blogs/realtime…

@MagnusBarsoe

@MagnusBarsoe
@ThomasBerntH
@LauritzenEuropa
@GramSwg
@OleJust2
@KarinEAxelsson
@MadsBrandstrup
@kraghclaus
@ClausVistesen
@helgejpedersen
@KennethPraefke
@mikaelmilhoj
@DavidTrads
@BosseStine
@MwiWind
@lykkefriis
@crbennike
@jakobnielsen
@LasOlsen_DB
@Jesper_Pet
@NilasHeinskou

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More from @jfkirkegaard

Jacob F Kirkegaard

@jfkirkegaard

17 Mar

@vonderleyen

@vonderleyen was earlier today kind enough to update EU vaccine supply data. This was actually very very encouraging, as it highlights that the EU27+NO+IS is on target to be able to vaccinate 70% of its 18y+ population by the END OF JUNE with the 4 currently approved vaccines 1/n

@AstraZeneca

Moreover, IF you assume the EU had adopted the UK/US "NO Exports stance" Q1 supply would have been 144mn (not 100mn) and assuming no export + @AstraZeneca contract compliance would yielded ~200mn in Q1 for the EU+NO+IS, or about double the actual 100mn. 2/n

@AstraZeneca

Crucially, actual Q2 supply (if you x2 J&J supply to make them comparable) will be 410mn doses, rising to 520mn if @AstraZeneca had adhered to its contract. EU exports in Q2 are obviously not known yet. 3/n

Read 7 tweets

Jacob F Kirkegaard

@jfkirkegaard

15 Mar

@PIIE

What lessons should the EU and its member states learn to prevent its current troubled vaccine rollout from being repeated in a future where pandemics seem likely to be more frequent? In a new @PIIE piece, I lay out why it is mostly about money! 1/7 piie.com/blogs/realtime…

In any pandemic where vaccines are quickly and successfully developed, it is invariable that supply constraints and a "zero sum" game develop among advanced economies desperate to inoculate their populations. Having, as the EU does, a large domestic pharma-sector is an 2/7

@EU_Commission

obvious important advantage, but arguably more important is the ability, which the @EU_Commission does currently NOT have, to take large financial/fiscal risks early in the pandemic to ASAP support R&D, scale up production capacity and secure vaccines. The US with Operation 3/7

Read 8 tweets

Jacob F Kirkegaard

@jfkirkegaard

8 Mar

DK's vaccinationshastighed synes stagnerende - igaar 16-17k/dag. Det er imidlertid ca. det tempo man maa forvente i marts, jf. sidste uges SSI vaccine leverance update, samt annonceringen af en 100k/dag "stoerre skala test" i de kommende uger. 1 hurtig 1/n ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…

@mikaelmilhoj

model viser at ca. 16.900/dag (+ en successfuld 100k/dag test) bruger de af SSI forventede vacciner vi faar i marts og indtil paaske. No great - men bedst tilgaengelige data @mikaelmilhoj? Inden man skriger paa handling fra @Statsmin og flere DK regeringsbesoeg hos 2/n

@vonderleyen

korruptionsanklagede ledere af hoejre-ekstreme koalitionsregeringer i valgkamp i ikke-vaccine producerende lande som ISR, saa gav @vonderleyen et interessant interview til TV i Mette F's "Best friend forever" @sebastiankurz's AT soendag med nogen 3/n orf.at/stories/320437…

Read 8 tweets

Jacob F Kirkegaard

@jfkirkegaard

8 Mar

@DrAlisonSmith

:-) - so time to update EU vacc data (again), since some new developments (and data) have emerged. MT still by a margin the most vacc'ing EU member, but HU has now moved into 2., ahead of DK, CY and NO. @DrAlisonSmith kindly showed me the NL dashboard 1/15 coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/vacc…

with Dutch data (implying I've been misreporting the nationally available Dutch weekly data by jab). "old" data from Feb 28 now included, though if you use the March 6th total# for NL of ~1.6mn, you'd get 9.2% of total pop, or a place between AT and ES. Consistent data 2/15

remains challenging. Some catchup among MS is happening, but divergence and vacc-speed remains far apart between top & bottom. Recent accelerations by HU, CY and NO show however that "convergence to the top" is possible. BG and LV similarly picked up speed in recent weeks. 3/15

Read 15 tweets

Jacob F Kirkegaard

@jfkirkegaard

8 Mar

Time to Update EU vacc data, where last week saw some noticeable developments. MT still by a margin the most vacc'ing EU member, but HU has now moved into 2., ahead of DK, CY and NO. BG, LV and (remarkably) NL CR LU remain bottom. Wealth and imminent elections matters not? 1/15

Some catchup among MS is happening, but divergence and vacc-speed remains far apart between top & bottom. Recent accelerations by HU, CY and NO show however that "convergence to the top" is possible. BG and LV similarly picked up speed, though NL and LU much less so (yet?). 2/15

More information is available from some MS for vacc-deliveries in March, allowing for rudimentary forecasting of vacc-speeds here MS until end-Q1. In DK, operating with essentially zero inventory (and a 100k/day large-scale test planned), no additional vacc-acceleration from 3/15

Read 4 tweets

Jacob F Kirkegaard

@jfkirkegaard

23 Feb

Updating EU vaccine data, two things stand out. 1) Good news = supply will quickly pick up now. 2) Far Less good new = no "convergence to the top" among EU MS, raising risk of lack of uniform rollout acceleration in coming weeks with higher supply. 1/11

MT remains by a margin the most efficient EU MS rollout (smallest pop MS likely benefit from lower threshold effects in supply = more vaccs/pop), followed by DK at 8.5%, high-jumper NO at 7.3% and PL at 7.2%. 2/11

At bottom BG = 1.7%, LT at 1.9%, CR at 3.5% and - remarkably for a rich (if frugal) country heading to polls soon - NL at 4.5%. LU (EU's richest member) at 4.6% shows money is not all (even if X-border worker effects play a role). 3/11

Read 12 tweets

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