1/ I'm going to elaborate a bit on this & why the relative @WHNSC@StateDept@jakejsullivan@SecBlinken silence on this publicly cld matter & potentially affect the Biden admin's other goals w/ India.
[FONOPgate - esp in comparison - was a storm in a teacup]
2/ USG (& GoI) can say the raw materials export situation is complex, & SII left a misleading impressing abt its impact before it clarified.
Regardless, what Indians will think is "we're dying & US is preventing our ability to get vaccinated"
3/ USG can say it's US job to take care of Americans first, & every country incl India has or has had export restrictions.
But Indians - & even Americans - wld hv found that more understandable a few months ago than today when US is much better off
4/ USG can say it's not ready to send vaccine stocks abroad yet (not just to India but other countries that asked first).
But what people abroad will notice that it's even sitting on AstraZeneca vaccines that aren't likely to be used in the US -- esp not anytime soon
5/ USG can say America is back & interested in shoring up alliances & partnerships
But what Indians are saying is that even Trump sent India ventilators.
6/ USG can talk about human rights and its importance, & take the moral high ground
But what Indians -- even non-Modi supporters are saying -- is that the US approach at the moment doesn't live up to that at all.
7/ USG can say that it's complex and
- there are technical issues involved
- we are doing X, Y and Z
But Indians then will ask, why aren't you talking about it then?
8/ USG can say that GoI hasn't asked for assistance.
But Indians will ask, have you offered? And why does this preclude a message of solidarity at the very least?
9/ USG can say Quad Vaccine Initiative! It'll expand Indian vaccine production capacity by end 2022!
But Indians will see that as irrelevant to their current crisis.
10/ USG can say convergence on China!
But w/o an India that's also back on its feet, it will not have the ability to play the role US envisions
And at this point, even the Chinese foreign ministry has issued a less tone deaf statement than the US
11/ This is not just on the administration.
Where are members of Congress?
Where is the GOP on this?
Will it desist from criticizing the admin about helping ferners if they do offer?
12/ And this is not just about India.
Can talk all about how China is bad. Can say - & it is true - that most countries hv resorted to nationalism re med supplies
But it is the US that says it is better than others. So don't be surprised when others hold it to a higher standard
13/ I'd just add, Americans as a whole have not been silent. There are many who are expressing solidarity, offering to help, amplifying asks, donating.
And (much maligned by GoI) American cos. such as Twitter & WhatsApp that hv been indispensable tools for a no. of Indians
14/ It is not sufficient for USG to communicate with the Government of India.
As US officials have often said, the US relationship is also with the people of India.
If not for humanitarian reasons, say & do something for strategic reasons.
15/ And I know USG can do better, be better.
One example -- both the messaging and the substance of the Quad vaccine initiative was almost pitch perfect.
17/ what we've heard in the past few days from GoI sources & from the SII CEO (and, given that his messaging has been all over the place, it's a good time for the media to get some clarity from him too + cross-check his claims)
18/ On the AstraZeneca supplies issue
(and how Canada, Mexico deal was worked out usnews.com/news/health-ne…)
19/ ps. I hope GoI is not hesitating asking for and/or accepting international assistance because of a desire to stick to its emphasis on atmanirbharta/self-reliance, or because of how it will look.
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US export restrictions aren't cause of India's COVID crisis & not clear if lifting them will solve immed prob (cuz affects Novavax prod). But they will hv an adverse effect down the line on global vaccination efforts & they're already being blamed – in some cases, instrumentally.
3/ This US export restrictions issue & India has come up in pressers. On March 12, separately NSA Jake Sullivan & FonSec Shringla were asked about it. It also came up in the WH press briefing yesterday.
Not many details other than GoI noting it'd been taken up bilaterally.
1/ Cuz of Quad, been some debate abt the extent of 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵🇺🇸 coop in 2004/Tsunami Core Group.
2005, Jt Secy (AMS) S. Jaishankar:
- TCG coordinated int'l reax
- daily 📞, 🇮🇳: FS
- initially 🇦🇺🇮🇳🇯🇵🇺🇸, then + 🇨🇦🇳🇱🇺🇳
- US-IND coord re Sri Lanka
- Indian liaisons in Thailand, PACOM
2/ I've covered Quad 1.0's origins in the Tsunami Core Group in my WOTR piece bit.ly/31062Xh
3/ This was then Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, the Indian lead on the Tsunami Core Group, on the group at a press briefing on Jan. 5, 2005 (worth reading in full for the broader response effort) mea.gov.in/media-briefing…
.@ryanl_hass: "Implicit in the structure of the [#Quad] agenda will be a recognition that the US & others will enjoy greater attraction & influence by delivering solutions to problems than by presenting opposition to China" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
.@ryanl_hass: "...If the coordinated efforts of the Quad countries spurs China to up its efforts to deliver solutions to regional challenges, that’s all to the better.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Noone believes the Quad has nothing to do w/ China; & denials are only seen as "the Quad doth protest too much."
But there is a nuance here that Ryan alludes to -- the Quad is not about containing China; it *is* in part about shaping China's behavior.