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23 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
SHORT THREAD on JAPAN / OLYMPICS:

Japan is going through a major new Covid wave and this potentially puts the Olympics later this summer at real risk... (and of course Japan's large population!) 1/4
The sequencing data for Japan is sparse, but it does seem as if B117 (the "Kent, UK" variant) has become dominant there over last couple of months and that this might be behind the recent increase. 2/4

reuters.com/business/healt…
The other thing is that Japan is being very slow to vaccinate compared to other high income regions - Just over 1% of its population has received one dose of Covid vaccine so far.

This leaves it more exposed to surges from B117 (vaccines work brilliantly against B117). 3/4
Japan is imposing further restrictions to try to get on top of this now.

Fingers crossed it will be enough to bring cases right back down again. 4/4

ft.com/content/a3d3a8…

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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
18 Apr
THREAD on VARIANTS, VACCINES & POTENTIAL FUTURES:

I’ve been looking at data on sequenced variants. I’ve also been thinking about our vax programme & India.

TLDR: the Indian variant needs to trigger surge testing in England. And India needs to be on red list. 1/23
Some dates: while over 60% of adults have had 1 dose of vax, we've got another ~15 weeks before *all* adults could have immunity from at least 1 dose.

And another 20+ weeks before all adults could be fully vaxxed. And we don't yet know what uptake will be in younger adults. 2/23
So what can variants do while we are vaxxing people?

We already know that B117 can infect some partially vaccinated people and (far far) fewer but still some fully vaccinated. edition.cnn.com/2021/04/14/hea… 3/23
Read 26 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
15 Apr
The latest PHE variant of concern update is out...

TWO KEY things:

1) B1351 ("South African") variant continuing to spread (as we've seen in the headlines!)

2) 77 cases (!) of the new B1617 "double mutant" variant discovered in India .

B1617 is worrying because... 1/3
It has some potentially worrying mutations NOT seen in SA, Kent or Brazil strains.
forbes.com/sites/williamh…

This variant *might* escape both T-cell and antibody action. India going through a big surge - mix of B117 & new B1617 (location dependent)
science.thewire.in/health/sars-co… 2/3
As I tweeted yesterday, India should be on the red list (as should many other countries that currently aren't btw) *and* Johnson should *not* go on a trip to Delhi this month! madness!

Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
15 Apr
THREAD on VACCINATION & EQUITY in ENGLAND:

I know I've tweeted about this before, but now we can look at how gaps by deprivation and ethnicity change with age groups and what that might mean...

TLDR: widening gaps but access and communication will be key I suspect 1/5
By deprivation:
Vax coverage gaps *widen* markedly as we move to young ager groups. This is not just a time effect - coverage has flattened off for all these age groups.

Access (able to leave work to get vaccinated, travel, internet access) & communication likely issues 2/5
By ethnicity:
Much larger gaps for all age groups by ethnicity but less impact by age.

Different but overlapping reasons driving ethnicity gaps compared to deprivation gaps? 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
14 Apr
THREE TWEETS:

1. The situation in India is very bad and worsening.
theguardian.com/world/2021/apr……

It is frankly insane that Bangladesh and Pakistan are on the UK travel red list countries but India is not.

gov.uk/guidance/trans…
2. Globally we are back in a pandemic that is as bad as it has been and no sign of peaking yet.

Deaths are trailing cases by a few weeks as expected but they are also rising steeply - this isn't just more testing or ok because we have vaccines & better treatments.
3. Out of control covid anywhere is a danger everywhere.

We need to address vaccine inequality ASAP. This is urgent - morally for global fairness & self-interestedly to stop future UK waves.

We'll be covering this in Friday's @IndependentSage
briefing - join us!
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Apr
THREAD on cases in the UK:

TLDR things going in right direction overall but some areas of concern for deprived communities & in schools. 1/19
Overall cases in the UK have fallen over last week after a long flat period. Note that tests have fallen too though (mainly lateral flow device (LFD) tests as schools are on holiday). 2/19
The ONS infection survey with data to 3 April - which tests random sample every week - reports new cases going *up* in England, flat in Wales and NI & going *down* in Scotland. 3/19
Read 19 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
9 Apr
Three charts to highlight vaccine impact in England... Hospitals: For almost all the second wave hospitalisations were highest in the over 65s - but at the end of February the under 50s (unvaccinated) overtake over 65s in admissions... This is good news on vax impact! 1/3
Deaths: REACT released its latest report this week. In it they overlaid actual deaths onto infection trends adjusted for the time lag between infection & death and scaled for case fatality rate. Since Jan deaths have dropped off the infection line - more vaccine impact! 2/3
Deaths *and* Hospitals: Using published case, hospital and death data we see similar trends as this beautiful plot from @jburnmurdoch shows.

PHE estimates that vaccines have saved 10,000 lives so far! assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…… 3/3
Read 4 tweets

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