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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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24 Apr, 8 tweets, 5 min read
1 million #COVID19 **deaths** projected in India 🇮🇳 by August 2021. The model even assumes vaccines to will bring it under control by May 17th (peak deaths).

God help us. God help India.

(Projections by the world renowned epidemiology center @IHME_UW)
covid19.healthdata.org/india?view=tot…
2) the worse case is 1.04 (95% CI 840k-1.25 mil) by August 1st.

Even with universal masks and vaccine rollout, it will likely be 878k (95% CI: 728k-1.07 mil).
3) How many projected global #COVID19 deaths? 5 million or so by August 2021.
4) And what will be driving global trends next month? India 🇮🇳- it will decide how high global cases and deaths will rise.

Also extraordinary— IHME modeling senior researcher @AliHMokdad’s group assumes a very low efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine against #B1351 & #P1! Damn.
5) If you don’t believe the projection - then will you believe the hospital crisis in India? In even among the wealthiest hospitals in Delhi— they are at basically zero oxygen left. When the anchor asks the hospital director what that means, the doctor just replies “it’s over”.
6) Sometimes we need to face the brutal reality before we change. So here is the reality in many public hospitals where people die on the streets.

Now we need to sober up and act to change. @narendramodi - it’s your move.
7) Here is now the world is doing in vaccines... not well.

Global COVID-19 vaccinations:

(Partially) vaccinated:
▓░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
6.80% (+0.11)

Fully vaccinated:
░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
2.84% (+0.07)

To reach 60% at current rate:
966 days
8) So why can’t Biden WH send US vaccines immediately abroad? Because the current vaccines are from Trump WH Operation Warp Speed contracts that specifically prohibit their use outside the Us.

Only the new Biden WH ordered vaccines can be shipped abroad for use—coming in May.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Apr
📍More younger people are being admitted to hospitals with the coronavirus than at any other time in the pandemic. Michigan hospitals are now admitting about twice as many #COVID19 patients in their 30s and 40s as they were during the fall peak. Thread 🧵 nytimes.com/2021/04/25/us/…
2) younger adults, many of whom only recently became eligible for vaccines, now make up a higher share of total hospitalizations. But the number of people in their 30s and 40s hospitalized with Covid-19 nationally has also increased somewhat since March, says CDC.
3) Hospitalizations among younger people have been up most notably in the Great Lakes states, with rises seen as well in the Mid-Atlantic.
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Apr
“If [deaths] continues like this, in 4-5 days, we will have to cremate bodies on the road.”

India needs to vaccinate 10 million per day to flatten the curve (India not even close).

I’m now worried India will vastly exceed 1 mil deaths by August. #COVID19
2) India is not vaccinating fast enough. If you squint, you can see India 🇮🇳 is at just 1.6% vaccinated fully. Horribly slow pace. Image
3) Here is hope—US is sending India urgent supplies.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Apr
HUGELY UNDERCOUNTING DEATHS—India is either sloppy in miscounting #COVID19 deaths, or they are criminally covering up overwhelming deaths. All signs & reporting points either one or the other—“It’s a complete massacre of data”. Real deaths 2x-5x higher.🧵
nytimes.com/2021/04/24/wor… ImageImage
2) Interviews from cremation grounds across the country, where the fires never stop, portray an extensive pattern of deaths far exceeding the official figures. Nervous politicians and hospital administrators may be undercounting or overlooking large numbers of dead, analysts say.
3) ““It’s a complete massacre of data,” said Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan who has been following India closely. “From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported.”
Read 11 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
24 Apr
I’m sorry—but @narendramodi’s authoritarian government can goto hell if they dare try to silence the true human suffering.

🔥HEADLINE: “India asks Twitter to take down some tweets critical of its #COVID19 handling” reut.rs/3axrjgj Image
2) The Indian government asked social media platform Twitter (TWTR.N) to take down dozens of tweets, including some by local lawmakers, that were critical of India’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, as cases of COVID-19 again hit a world record.
3) Twitter has withheld some of the tweets after the legal request by the Indian government, a company spokeswoman told Reuters.

The government made an emergency order to censor the tweets, Twitter disclosed on Lumen database, a Harvard University project.
Read 10 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
24 Apr
“There are next to no ICU beds [left] in a city of 20 million" — Delhi hospitals are overwhelmed and collapsing without any oxygen left. 🧵

BBC journalist @yogital reports. #COVID19 #CovidIndia
2) When an anchor asks the executive director of Batra Hospital what it means that there’s zero oxygen... he replies “it’s over”.
3) I agree with @PrasadKasibhat1 - US needs to step up fast.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
24 Apr
SOS—“Our oxygen supply is over. There is no oxygen in the tank. We are only able to supply oxygen to patients in ICU. [The Delhi authorities] are not able to supply us oxygen”: Dr Bankata, Batra Hospital, Delhi, India 🇮🇳 sending SOS to the world. #COVID19
2) Keep in mind Delhi has some of the best hospitals in all of India. Most of the hospitals sending Sos and getting in TV are wealthy private hospitals. Public hospitals for the poor... you can imagine.
3) Again, Batra Hospital is one of the premiere private hospitals in Delhi for the rich. Here is the reality for the non-rich... it’s been long over for the public hospitals for the lay public....
Read 16 tweets

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