Le Monde has a big deep-dive poll of 10K people by Sopra-Steria & Ipsos today on first round of Pres elections – the first of a series over the next year. V good results for Macron – btwn 25 & 29% in first round, depending which of three possible centre-right candidates run 1/3
.@MLP_officiel is 26 - 28%. @xavierbertrand does better than @vpecresse – 16 as against 11% - but there is still no sign of a big bounce for his early declaration. The Left is scattered but totals 30% - higher than in other recent polls. Suggests a single left-wing candidate 2/3
Could hope to challenge Macron & Le Pen for a place in 2nd round but chances of a single left-wing candidate being agreed are close to zero – as Paul Taylor says in Politico. Overall, this is a very encouraging snapshot for Macron but a long way to go.. 3/3
+1: In 2nd round, the poll shows Macron winning 57-43 against Le Pen – higher than recent smaller polls. Interestingly, it also suggests that Macron would narrowly defeat Bertrand in the unlikely event that they were the two 2nd round runners off. Bertrand would crush Le Pen
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So @MLP_officiel has ostensibly abandoned her 2017 plan to leave the EU/Euro - “Frexit”. But if you go to the official website of her “Rassemblement National“, there's nothing in way of new policies. All the old ideas - & supposedly abandoned program of 2017 - is still there 1/
The referendum on leaving EU is still there. The repudiation of Euro to “re-establish a national currency adapted to our own economy as a tool of competitiveness” is still there. Retirement at 60 is still there. Massive cuts in payroll taxes for small businesses still there 2/
Big, uncosted new investments in R&D are still there. The promise to enormously reduce inheritance taxes is still there. The promise of “re-industrialisation” through massive public investments by a “strategic state” is still there. “Intelligent protectionism” is still there 3/
Lots of media reports that UK & EU are edging closer towards a deal on the Protocol. I'm very sceptical. The gaps between the two remain substantive & substantial; indeed the press reports have been described to me as “surprising“. Short thread 1/
The gaps aren't only on SPS, where there's no meeting of the minds. There's well over 20 substantive issues to resolve & no agreement on whom the onus lies to fix them 2/
The EU wants a “roadmap“ from UK. HMG only agreed to a “work program“. The diff isn't semantics: the first implies all obligations fall on UK; the second it's a joint endeavour. The compromise “road plan” won't resolve this underlying problem 3/
Lots of buzz in Paris/Fr today as @EPhilippe_LH publishes his book on his experiences as PM between May 17 & July 20 under @EmmanuelMacron. Lots already trailed in Fr press & Philippe has been teasingly non-committal about his Pres ambitions. People in Macron land are worried 1/6
Some close to Macron think Philippe may emerge as a rival (despite a gentleman's understanding between the two he won't compete with his former boss). Others think he's being coy to help Macron - subtracting attention from recently launched campaign of @xavierbertrand 2/6
I think Philippe will only run in very specific circumstances (one eg, he could emerge as the figurehead of a “dump Macron” move by establishment worried Le Pen will take second round) 3/6
True, other recent polls show a similar modest fall. And all were taken before last night’s announcement of a “lockdown light” for whole of France. But numbers cd have been much worse - considering severity of new UK-variant driven surge in Covid cases & acute cases in Fr 2/4
Macron is paying, but not paying severely yet, for his decision to reject a third lockdown in late Jan. But a year from elections, he is still better placed than any French President this late in their term - for several decades 3/4
The UK Govt led by @BorisJohnson isn't bothered about EU. “Global Britain” is about other parts of world eg US & Indo-Pacific. Its domestic agenda is about “levelling up”. Yet the very success of these initiatives depend on a more productive relationship with EU
Thread 1/
There are many eg's where influence & impact of Global Britain would be enhanced by a more collaborative dynamic with EU. Most obvious: Govt's desire to work closely with @JoeBiden. He's been clear he expects HMG to honour WA, TCA & not jeopardise GFA 2/
HMG also has strong interest in working with EU (& US) to edge up global climate standards. A political success at COP26 in Glasgow in Nov would be big vindication for the Global Britain Johnson wants to lead. Yet it can only realistically be achieved by working with EU 3/
V interesting interview by @VJMallet & @DavidKeo in today's @FT. The French interior minister Gérald Darmanin sails close to the wind sometimes, but there’s nothing here which is incompatible with Macron’s balanced approach to radical Islam 1/
Darmanin says that his approach is intended to prevent more French people from being tempted by Lepennism. Is that the same thing as running after far-right voters, as he & Macron are sometimes accused of doing? I don't think so 2/
His declared aim is to challenge Le Pen on her own ground to dissuade wavering voters from voting for the far right. Some may find that shocking. But why? 3/