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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
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24 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Unfortunately another day where #Covid19Ireland positive swabs are significantly up, todays 511 are 119% of last Saturdays and this makes 6 days in a row to show an increase on the same day last week. Taking us over 1000 a day by early June /1 Image
There have been 3215 positive swabs this week which is 116% of last week. Projecting the average swabs by day with that 116% increase has us over 1000 on 1st June
531 wk1 - 1st May
614 wk2
710 wk3
820 wk4
948 wk5
1096 wk6 - 1st June
1267 wk7
1465 wk8
1694 wk9
/2
The 116% increase in swabs compared with last week is a significant disimprovement as that week was 95% of previous. A 116% week on week increase while not welcome would be manageable & would be overtaken by vaccination IF its on schedule in May. /3 Image
Day 20 of the 42 'vulnerable period ahead' days could have us in a much worse position, around 1400 cases was feared by NPHET on March 31st so its good to be under 1/2 that & increasing at a slower rate but does speak for caution with any further relaxation before mid May /4 Image

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More from @andrewflood

Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
27 Apr
Listening to the vaccine misinformation put out unchallenged by IBEC on RTE this morning . While suggesting forcing people back into offices early would be good for their mental health was jaw dropping you do not get 80% of benefit from vaccination with 20% 1st dose /1
Majority of hospitalisations have been under 65s. as are 60% of ICD admissions. Perhaps IBEC only count deaths but a pandemic that only infects those under 65 could still kill a couple of 1000 directly & deny other healthcare to many /2
The reopening has to be cautious and in pace with vaccination until we are heading for 90% fully vaccinated. The north has nearly 50% dose 1, most measures still in place but still only has a slow decline in new cases - we can learn through observing them /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
26 Apr
The news about Jigsaw closing is dominating my timeline tonight - in the next couple of days I’ll try & put together a thread from the early Seomra days onwards looking at the intersections of dance & radical politics that keep that heart beating for so long Image
When 'we' first rented the building I shot a walk through video as it was being cleaned & painted - you'll get a sense from this of the rounds of internal redesign over the years -one measure of the level of volunteer labour poured in 🧵2
Volunteer labour was what built Seomra - no one drew a wage, there was no state funding & none was ever sought. It was that aspect that defined the dance floor even if few of those dancing knew that, it funded many radical political projects including the space itself 🧵3 Image
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
26 Apr
#Covid19Ireland positive swab data for yesterday & today a concern but slightly better than end of last week
462 +swabs Sunday was 116% last Sunday
380 today is 104% last Monday
Were it not for vaccine rollout accelerating this would be a problem within a couple of months /1 Image
Average of 451 pos swabs over last 3 days is 114% same days last week. That projects as
513 wk1 - May 3rd
583 wk2
663 wk3
754 wk4
857 wk5
974 wk6 - June 7th
1108 wk7
1259 wk8
1432 wk9
/2
There was a small increase in testing across both days however as the north is demonstrating more tests does not mean more cases in any linear way - their testing increased 180% on previous week today but cases detected were 90%
/3
Read 9 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
23 Mar
Todays swabs are not good news, Tuesday is the low of the week so that 520 is 137% of last Tuesday's swabs continuing a suggested that rate of increase is accelerating & heading now for 4,000 cases a day by June /1
546 positive swabs on average over last 3 days are 121% of same days last week - if that continues
663 wk1
805 wk2
977 wk3
1187 wk4
1441 wk5
1750 wk6 - May 4th
2125 wk7
2581 wk8
3134 wk9
3806 wk10 - June 1st
4622 wk11
5613 wk12
6817 wk13
/2
Sunday & Mondays swabs only became available this morning, I look at them in this thread. Comparing these 7 days withy previous 7 reactions slower to change, thats showing these 7 days as 108% last 7 now, up from 105 yesterday
Read 14 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
23 Mar
Sunday & Mondays swab data is now available, confirming numbers of positive swabs are rising & potentially the rate of rise is increasing
Sunday 611 positive swabs, 4.11% positivity, 97.6% of last Sunday
Monday 506 positive swabs, 3.98% positivity, 148% of last Monday
/1
598 positive swabs on average over the last 3 days - a 117% rise on the same days last week, That rate would have us on 2800 a day by June 1st
698 wk1
816 wk2
953 wk3
1113 wk4
1300 wk5
1518 wk6 - May4
1773 wk7
2071 wk8
2419 wk9
2825 wk10 - Jun1
3299 wk11
/2
Last 7 days 3956 positive swabs against 3755 of the 7 before - 105% of last week. Thats less alarming a rate of increase - next 2 days should show which applies
wk1593
wk2623
wk3654
wk4687
wk5721
wk6757 - May4
wk7795
wk8835
wk9877
wk10921 - Jun1
wk11967
/3
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
19 Feb
Last nights NPHET upload included 4 now deleted slides illustrating that as vaccine is rolled out Ireland will remain vulnerable to significant surges in cases, the worst projection being more than Dec/Jan wave, peaking at over 10k per day. They assume vax complete by October /1
Slides are headed 'A Vulnerable period ahead' & illustrate a possibility of repeated surges & lockdowns, assuming 58,800 vaccinations per week. 85% efficacy green line has just two future surges & lockdowns, another (0 efficacy?) just repeats /2
The most alarming one where R value is assumed to rise to 2 has a surge so enormous it vanishes off the top of the graph as it passed 10,000 cases. Looks to be a peak around 18k. Presumably these are 'look lads, despite vaccination you can still really feck this up' warning /3
Read 8 tweets

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