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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
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23 Mar, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Sunday & Mondays swab data is now available, confirming numbers of positive swabs are rising & potentially the rate of rise is increasing
Sunday 611 positive swabs, 4.11% positivity, 97.6% of last Sunday
Monday 506 positive swabs, 3.98% positivity, 148% of last Monday
/1
598 positive swabs on average over the last 3 days - a 117% rise on the same days last week, That rate would have us on 2800 a day by June 1st
698 wk1
816 wk2
953 wk3
1113 wk4
1300 wk5
1518 wk6 - May4
1773 wk7
2071 wk8
2419 wk9
2825 wk10 - Jun1
3299 wk11
/2
Last 7 days 3956 positive swabs against 3755 of the 7 before - 105% of last week. Thats less alarming a rate of increase - next 2 days should show which applies
wk1593
wk2623
wk3654
wk4687
wk5721
wk6757 - May4
wk7795
wk8835
wk9877
wk10921 - Jun1
wk11967
/3
Twitter removed the spaces so here that is as a image. I do these projection to show how the rate of increase is whats important as is illustrated by the huge difference in 10 weeks between 105% & 921 a day and 117% & 2800 a day.
The north of Ireland on the other hand has seen cases continuing to decline & perhaps the decline accelerating. Presumably because they have vaccinated 3.5 times as many people. Some general calculations on vaccine herd immunity protection here /5
Crudely the north started to diverge around the 15th. Allow 11 days for start of effect of vaccination brings us to March 4th when they had 29.% first dosed, about 3 times our current level & still some time in our future. Graph via @illustratethis that do daily comparisons /6
Todays swabs just published and also not good news being 137% of last Tuesday

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More from @andrewflood

Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
23 Mar
Todays swabs are not good news, Tuesday is the low of the week so that 520 is 137% of last Tuesday's swabs continuing a suggested that rate of increase is accelerating & heading now for 4,000 cases a day by June /1
546 positive swabs on average over last 3 days are 121% of same days last week - if that continues
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/2
Sunday & Mondays swabs only became available this morning, I look at them in this thread. Comparing these 7 days withy previous 7 reactions slower to change, thats showing these 7 days as 108% last 7 now, up from 105 yesterday
Read 14 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
19 Feb
Last nights NPHET upload included 4 now deleted slides illustrating that as vaccine is rolled out Ireland will remain vulnerable to significant surges in cases, the worst projection being more than Dec/Jan wave, peaking at over 10k per day. They assume vax complete by October /1
Slides are headed 'A Vulnerable period ahead' & illustrate a possibility of repeated surges & lockdowns, assuming 58,800 vaccinations per week. 85% efficacy green line has just two future surges & lockdowns, another (0 efficacy?) just repeats /2
The most alarming one where R value is assumed to rise to 2 has a surge so enormous it vanishes off the top of the graph as it passed 10,000 cases. Looks to be a peak around 18k. Presumably these are 'look lads, despite vaccination you can still really feck this up' warning /3
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
19 Feb
836 positive #Covid19Ireland swabs which is 85% of last Friday. Positivity below 5% for first time in a while at 4.9%. Still looking at a very long (3 months) reduction in cases to get us under 100 per day /1
Average positive #Covid19 swabs over last 3 days was 863, thats 88% of same days last week, that rate projected
760 wk1
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164wk13
/2
Drastic reduction in rate new cases falling at now attributed to rising proportion of #B117 - 90% of cases in last two weeks. Older variants reduced 35%+ a week, B117 reducing at around 15%, thats difference between 2 month lockdown & 5 month lockdown to get under 100 a day /3
Read 9 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
19 Feb
Weekly deaths bulletin for northern Ireland has 2691 #Covid19Ireland deaths to February 12th. This weekly NISRA count is more exhaustive that the Department of Health daily announcements & running total. It had 1985 deaths at that date, 26% less /1
The future NISRA minimum number of total deaths for yesterdays can be reprojected by adding the 36 DoH deaths since Feb 12th to the 2691 NISRA total for the 12th to give 2727. The likely total is 2706 which is 1454 #Coronavirus deaths per million in northern Ireland /2
NISRA provide a calculation of excess deaths (those above the 5 year average) which is 2,475 since the start of the pandemic, 546 of those in 2021. Worth noting in passing this is a higher ratio than the CSO in the south which may reflect south capturing more covid deaths? /3
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
18 Feb
816 #CovidIreland positive swabs are 95% of last Thursday so very slow rate of reduction continues which means under 100 cases a day is month away. #B117 variant seems to be cause of slowdown with 25% of close contacts being infected now as against 12%. 5.26% positivity /1
Average of 842 positive swabs over last 3 days, this is 91% of same days last week. Week on week reductions at that rate runs into June to go under 100
766 wk1
698 wk2
635 wk3
579 wk4
527 wk5
480 wk6
437 wk7
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362 wk9
330 wk10
300 wk11
273 wk12
249
/2
HSE report of number of close contacts of confirmed cases remains pretty static so this isn't the cause of the slowing down but a much higher proportion of these now test positive probably due to B117. Note NPHET give a lower adult only figure on Thursday evening /3
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
17 Feb
938 positive swabs, up[ ass usual on Tuesday but 86% of last Wednesday, continuing the pattern of very much reduced rate of decrease. Positivity at 5.5% slight improvement on yesterday but still too high. At this rate 14 weeks to get under 100 a day /1 Image
Average positive swabs of last 3 days is 785, 87% of the same days last week. At that week on week rate
686 wk1
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525 wk3
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401 wk5
351 wk6
307 wk7
268 wk8
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179 wk11
157 wk12
137wk13 - 19th May
/2
This rate of decrease is again similar to that of Northern Ireland which for the last couple of weeks has also had a very similar 7 day incidence rate - perhaps for once we won't be in a situation with radically difference rates each side of the border /3
Read 8 tweets

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