Thread by @andrewflood

Todays swabs are not good news, Tuesday is the low of the week so that 520 is 137% of last Tuesday's swabs continuing a suggested that rate of increase is accelerating & heading now for 4,000 cases a day by June /1

546 positive swabs on average over last 3 days are 121% of same days last week - if that continues
663 wk1
805 wk2
977 wk3
1187 wk4
1441 wk5
1750 wk6 - May 4th
2125 wk7
2581 wk8
3134 wk9
3806 wk10 - June 1st
4622 wk11
5613 wk12
6817 wk13
/2

Sunday & Mondays swabs only became available this morning, I look at them in this thread. Comparing these 7 days withy previous 7 reactions slower to change, thats showing these 7 days as 108% last 7 now, up from 105 yesterday

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1374343760528736263

Taking that current 7 days being 108% of previous 7 days rate and projecting forward gives 1300 cases a day by June
633 wk1
684 wk2
740 wk3
800 wk4
865 wk5
935 wk6 - May 4th
1011 wk7
1094 wk8
1183 wk9
1279 wk10 - June 1st
1383 wk11
1495 wk12
1617 wk13
/4

Last nights NPHET press conference had a 9% week on week increase but the change between week 9 & week 11 was +29%. The concern has to be this is the increase that came from everything around the return to in person teaching even if that transmission is not happening in schools/5

This slide for wk10 is too early to show impact of phase 1 of schools opening transmission properly but still the case when you remove households those 2 education categories outbreak percentages are greater than workplaces & comparable to extended family visits /6

Useful to also see that testing in schools are increased substantially so at least some of the age specific increase is probably cases that would previously have been missed /7

https://twitter.com/rwallirl/status/1374373670370471940?s=20

The GP referral data for Monday is very alarming. I've circled previous Monday's & this Monday is twice or more that of every previous Monday in March for Clinically Likely Covid19. @gpbuddy has proved a very accurate advance warning of significant change in recent months /8

The scale of then xmas disaster had 2 causes
1. The decision to open 'restaurants' against public health advice at 3 times the cases
2. But 60% of the consequences was failure to act quickly after it became clear Dec16 that cases were rising. If the data is bad act fast

Restaurants were left open for 9 more days & no call made to cancel xmas plans. Both of those would have been enormously unpopular in late December but would probably have saved 1300 lives and 5000 hospitalisations as well as a 3 month lockdown leading to where we are now

To be fair to Holohan he broke ranks on Dec & tweeted that restaurants were not safe. That resulted in the restaurant lobby, Fianna Fail politicians and the media calling on him to be muzzled. Then in late January they claimed 'no body warned us' /14

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1346448850387668994

If you are new to the swab figures and wondering why there were only 371 cases today (106% of last week) this thread explains the relationship between positive swabs and case notifications.

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1368517410953830400?s=20

There was a daily substantial under report today of 150, typically 130 of those would get notified as cases and added in the following days.

Paul Reid reporting a substantial increase in swabs collected Monday but not the doubling from the GP referral data - this would put us more in line for 750+ swabs this afternoon

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1374599426061271042