It's not that I don't think what people in Circle Purple hear matters: it does!
But the last 6 months of insular discussion within Circle Green, about Circle Pink, is a symptom not a solution.
So the Green Lantern Theory of the Presidency (coined by @BrendanNyhan & beautifully explained by @ezraklein👇in 2014) wishfully holds "that the president can achieve any political or policy objective if only he tries hard enough or uses the right tactics" vox.com/2014/5/20/5732…
The Green Lantern theory of political messaging, coined by me here, holds that "we" or "the Democrats" can determine what political narrative the median voter hears & trusts: just by winning some notionally unitary argument over which message is best & then... picking up a phone?
You will already have spotted the 2 problems with the theory: 1) it's not a unitary argument. Green circle debate re messaging does not in fact determine language/action in the Pink circle (which is a lot more diverse+dispersed than Green NY/DC believes)
Like, how did the partisan breakdown of college-educated white voters evolve in Lycoming County over the past 3 elections? Yeah, sure, I have that for you no problem 😳😳 !!!! targetearly.targetsmart.com/historic.html?…
So reverse coattails are up for debate again, & I do actually have some thoughts. But I am afraid they are going to frustrate all parties in this debate equally! You're better off just muting this thread right now tbh [1/17,000]
Here's the NYTimes piece folks are responding to today, which reports on the results of a study funded by RunForSomething nytimes.com/2021/04/16/us/…
Here is the public write-up of the study in question itself👇. If there is a more detailed write-up out there, I'd love to be pointed to it? Bc as it stands the structure of the comparative analysis here leaves me very confused (on which, more below...) runforsomething.net/wp-content/upl…
This👇 (from @StanGreenberg) matches what I've seen since last summer in right-leaning social media spaces. And it pushes to me ask aloud—as a real question, not a rhetorical one—Why aren't we talking how 'Antifa' cost the Democrats votes? No, really, why? democracycorps.com/republican-par…
Put differently, what are the stakes & consequences of taking a summer of protest understood by so many voters as having been driven by "Antifa"—& instead talking as if race+policing entered public debate driven & shaped by a handful of activists messaging "defund the police"?
You're gonna say but Lara, Antifa isn't a real thing, not in the way Greenberg's respondents are talking about it👇. To which I say, yes: correct. That seems like an important thing to be reckoning with?
I literally pay for a NYMag subscription just to read @EricLevitz (really!) so am not dunking but truly asking: did I miss the data that enshrined "Hispanic voters polarized by education in 2020" as confirmed fact rather than loose hypothesis? nymag.com/intelligencer/…
It's clear Hispanic voters on aggregate in 2020 voted *more like* non-college non-Hisp white voters & *less like* college educated nHw than they had in 2016: but of course that's not the same as the claim that *among* Hispanc voters it was non-college who swung hardest fr 2016-20
And the specifics of where Hispanic vote shifts (visible everywhere nationally, agreed) were *strongest* are very hard to square w/"educational polarization" as descriptor. So, eg👇, pro-Trump swing esp strong in FL, & esp strong among Vzlans & Colombians nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Another wk & the pace of party reg changers has barely slowed: 4,646 voters changed party reg in PA last wk, bringing YTD changers to over 39,000. While in first 6 wks of 2021 big trend was GOP to Other, this wk continued last wk's trend: folks came home to parties, just new ones
(for excessively long previous threads on topic, including important caveats re uneven data reporting, see👇)
Regions in blue quadrant👇 saw net losses to GOP & net gains to Dems. White quadrant saw net losses to both: distance above green line reflects frequency of loss from major parties to Other. Almost everywhere has seen rate of movement to Other slow in last 2 wks (SCPA is holdout)
It seems nationally there's some political stuff going on today & tomorrow, whatev, but here in Pittsburgh we are all only #onhere for the sudden news that we have a contested mayoral primary ahead: & all the reasons that's Actually a Good Thing (whoever wins!). Eg, 👇
For my part I am just on Team Democracy, & from that point of view am really hopeful this contested race may make progress in rectifying the severe voter registration deficit that COVID-19 falling in presidential year 2020 caused in Pittsburgh's most marginalized neighborhoods👇