Like, how did the partisan breakdown of college-educated white voters evolve in Lycoming County over the past 3 elections? Yeah, sure, I have that for you no problem 😳😳 !!!! targetearly.targetsmart.com/historic.html?…
Or, look at @DebCiamacca's district, where portion of both college-educated whites & registered Dems among final voters was steadily up since 2016, yet the portion of modeled Dem voters *fell*: Huh. But also, yeah...
How bad was Democrats' pandemic-election voter registration deficit? In PA, among modeled GOP voters, the # of first-time voters in 2020 was 8,000 voters lower than in 2016. Among Dems, it was *200,000* voters lower
Related: according to @TargetSmart data for Pennsylvania the absolute number of modeled Dem voters under 30 *fell* by 56,000 voters—over 10%—fr 2016 to 2020. While the absolute # of modeled Republican voters under 30 *rose* by 37,000—over 10%—in 2020 vs 2016 🚨🚨
Nor is this just an urban story: Even if you assume the decline of 39,000 in voters under 30 in urban PA is a big chunk of Dems' 2020 youth deficit, you've got ~17,000 left to explain. Looks like lots of young suburban registration-or-persuasion targets out there right now 👀.
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So reverse coattails are up for debate again, & I do actually have some thoughts. But I am afraid they are going to frustrate all parties in this debate equally! You're better off just muting this thread right now tbh [1/17,000]
Here's the NYTimes piece folks are responding to today, which reports on the results of a study funded by RunForSomething nytimes.com/2021/04/16/us/…
Here is the public write-up of the study in question itself👇. If there is a more detailed write-up out there, I'd love to be pointed to it? Bc as it stands the structure of the comparative analysis here leaves me very confused (on which, more below...) runforsomething.net/wp-content/upl…
This👇 (from @StanGreenberg) matches what I've seen since last summer in right-leaning social media spaces. And it pushes to me ask aloud—as a real question, not a rhetorical one—Why aren't we talking how 'Antifa' cost the Democrats votes? No, really, why? democracycorps.com/republican-par…
Put differently, what are the stakes & consequences of taking a summer of protest understood by so many voters as having been driven by "Antifa"—& instead talking as if race+policing entered public debate driven & shaped by a handful of activists messaging "defund the police"?
You're gonna say but Lara, Antifa isn't a real thing, not in the way Greenberg's respondents are talking about it👇. To which I say, yes: correct. That seems like an important thing to be reckoning with?
I literally pay for a NYMag subscription just to read @EricLevitz (really!) so am not dunking but truly asking: did I miss the data that enshrined "Hispanic voters polarized by education in 2020" as confirmed fact rather than loose hypothesis? nymag.com/intelligencer/…
It's clear Hispanic voters on aggregate in 2020 voted *more like* non-college non-Hisp white voters & *less like* college educated nHw than they had in 2016: but of course that's not the same as the claim that *among* Hispanc voters it was non-college who swung hardest fr 2016-20
And the specifics of where Hispanic vote shifts (visible everywhere nationally, agreed) were *strongest* are very hard to square w/"educational polarization" as descriptor. So, eg👇, pro-Trump swing esp strong in FL, & esp strong among Vzlans & Colombians nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Another wk & the pace of party reg changers has barely slowed: 4,646 voters changed party reg in PA last wk, bringing YTD changers to over 39,000. While in first 6 wks of 2021 big trend was GOP to Other, this wk continued last wk's trend: folks came home to parties, just new ones
(for excessively long previous threads on topic, including important caveats re uneven data reporting, see👇)
Regions in blue quadrant👇 saw net losses to GOP & net gains to Dems. White quadrant saw net losses to both: distance above green line reflects frequency of loss from major parties to Other. Almost everywhere has seen rate of movement to Other slow in last 2 wks (SCPA is holdout)
It seems nationally there's some political stuff going on today & tomorrow, whatev, but here in Pittsburgh we are all only #onhere for the sudden news that we have a contested mayoral primary ahead: & all the reasons that's Actually a Good Thing (whoever wins!). Eg, 👇
For my part I am just on Team Democracy, & from that point of view am really hopeful this contested race may make progress in rectifying the severe voter registration deficit that COVID-19 falling in presidential year 2020 caused in Pittsburgh's most marginalized neighborhoods👇