I literally pay for a NYMag subscription just to read @EricLevitz (really!) so am not dunking but truly asking: did I miss the data that enshrined "Hispanic voters polarized by education in 2020" as confirmed fact rather than loose hypothesis? nymag.com/intelligencer/…
It's clear Hispanic voters on aggregate in 2020 voted *more like* non-college non-Hisp white voters & *less like* college educated nHw than they had in 2016: but of course that's not the same as the claim that *among* Hispanc voters it was non-college who swung hardest fr 2016-20
And the specifics of where Hispanic vote shifts (visible everywhere nationally, agreed) were *strongest* are very hard to square w/"educational polarization" as descriptor. So, eg👇, pro-Trump swing esp strong in FL, & esp strong among Vzlans & Colombians nymag.com/intelligencer/…
55% of Venezuelans in the US have college degrees: it is, by far, the highest rate of any Latin American origin group. Colombians are also far above the median: at 33% w/ a bachelors' degree they are just behind Argentines & tied for third w/Panamanians pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019…
Similarly & relatedly FL has, by far, the Hispanic population with the highest level of college attainment. Were Latino voters polarizing by education the pro-Trump Hispanic swing should have been *weakest* in FL: & stronger (=more pro GOP) in AZ than TX👇 edtrust.org/wp-content/upl…
On separate question of how "socialism!" played see interesting data here👇: again, overall picture is inconsistent with argument that prior beliefs re socialism were somehow antecedent driver (rather than post hoc explanation) of Colombian+broader shift
OK have dug deep into the Pew time machine & partially answered my own Q: yes polling fr 2016 suggests educational polarity among Latino voters reversed in 2020. Interesting! And makes both the GOP FL success story, & the AZ Dem results, even more striking pewresearch.org/hispanic/2016/…
You won't be shocked to hear I think there's a longterm local infrastructure & relational organizing story we need to take on board here...
This Oct 2020 report fr @JaxAlemany on Latino outreach in PA is definitely worth revisiting: incl quote from @MariaTeresa—"Progressives have a tendency to pack their bags and wait until the next cycle", + Matt Schlapp sounding like he's read his Alinsky👇 washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
wait whoa this just in from @dhopkins1776 & the plot thickens. Panel data fr 2016-18 shows Hispanic respondents with less education moving *toward* the Democrats in those years, while those w more education shifted toward Republicans 👀
More interesting data incoming on this question. CCES heard from (thanks to @A_agadjanian). If there's a multi cycle trend of educational polarization among Latino voters here, you sure have to squint hard to see it?
Like, how did the partisan breakdown of college-educated white voters evolve in Lycoming County over the past 3 elections? Yeah, sure, I have that for you no problem 😳😳 !!!! targetearly.targetsmart.com/historic.html?…
So reverse coattails are up for debate again, & I do actually have some thoughts. But I am afraid they are going to frustrate all parties in this debate equally! You're better off just muting this thread right now tbh [1/17,000]
Here's the NYTimes piece folks are responding to today, which reports on the results of a study funded by RunForSomething nytimes.com/2021/04/16/us/…
Here is the public write-up of the study in question itself👇. If there is a more detailed write-up out there, I'd love to be pointed to it? Bc as it stands the structure of the comparative analysis here leaves me very confused (on which, more below...) runforsomething.net/wp-content/upl…
This👇 (from @StanGreenberg) matches what I've seen since last summer in right-leaning social media spaces. And it pushes to me ask aloud—as a real question, not a rhetorical one—Why aren't we talking how 'Antifa' cost the Democrats votes? No, really, why? democracycorps.com/republican-par…
Put differently, what are the stakes & consequences of taking a summer of protest understood by so many voters as having been driven by "Antifa"—& instead talking as if race+policing entered public debate driven & shaped by a handful of activists messaging "defund the police"?
You're gonna say but Lara, Antifa isn't a real thing, not in the way Greenberg's respondents are talking about it👇. To which I say, yes: correct. That seems like an important thing to be reckoning with?
Another wk & the pace of party reg changers has barely slowed: 4,646 voters changed party reg in PA last wk, bringing YTD changers to over 39,000. While in first 6 wks of 2021 big trend was GOP to Other, this wk continued last wk's trend: folks came home to parties, just new ones
(for excessively long previous threads on topic, including important caveats re uneven data reporting, see👇)
Regions in blue quadrant👇 saw net losses to GOP & net gains to Dems. White quadrant saw net losses to both: distance above green line reflects frequency of loss from major parties to Other. Almost everywhere has seen rate of movement to Other slow in last 2 wks (SCPA is holdout)
It seems nationally there's some political stuff going on today & tomorrow, whatev, but here in Pittsburgh we are all only #onhere for the sudden news that we have a contested mayoral primary ahead: & all the reasons that's Actually a Good Thing (whoever wins!). Eg, 👇
For my part I am just on Team Democracy, & from that point of view am really hopeful this contested race may make progress in rectifying the severe voter registration deficit that COVID-19 falling in presidential year 2020 caused in Pittsburgh's most marginalized neighborhoods👇