"The idea of net zero has licensed a recklessly cavalier 'burn now, pay later' approach which has seen carbon emissions continue to soar." Important article for all climate folks. I've never believed in CCS (too costly) or BECCS (not enough land). theconversation.com/climate-scient…
As the authors write: "If we want to keep people safe then large and sustained cuts to carbon emissions need to happen now. That is the very simple acid test that must be applied to all climate policies."
As I have argued, limiting warming to 1.5 °C is still possible. But it requires more than the gradual changes explored in Integrated Assessment Models. It will be disruptive - but less so than suffering 2 °C or even more warming. realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
For example, it will involve retiring fossil infrastructure (cars, coal power stations...) well before their regular replacement time, stopping all fossil fuel subsidies and quickly implementing a realistic price on carbon emissions. nature.com/articles/nclim…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Stefan Rahmstorf 😷

Stefan Rahmstorf 😷 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @rahmstorf

30 Apr
Das Bundesverfassungsgericht hat die Tatsache anerkannt, dass wir zur Begrenzung der #Erderhitzung nur noch ein begrenztes #Emissionsbudget zur Verfügung haben. Was hat es mit diesem Emissionsbudget auf sich? Das habe ich 2019 im Spiegel erklärt: spiegel.de/wissenschaft/m…
Das #Emissionsbudget beruht auf der wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnis, dass das Ausmaß der globalen Erwärmung in guter Näherung proportional zu den kumulativen Gesamtemissionen ist - siehe die berühmte Nature-Ausgabe von 2009 mit Beiträgen u.a. von Malte Meinshausen vom PIK. Image
Grund dafür ist die sehr lange Lebensdauer von CO2 in der Atmosphäre - die z.B. dazu führt, dass wir wahrscheinlich schon durch die bisherigen Emissionen die ansonsten in 50.000 Jahren fällige nächste Eiszeit verhindert haben! pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles/n…
Read 9 tweets
8 Mar
Zur Erinnerung: Im Umweltgutachten 2020 setzte sich der Umweltrat der Bundesregierung für ein transparentes #CO2budget ein, das sich am Pariser Abkommen orientiert. PM eines gewissen #Nuesslein dazu: die Klimapolitik dürfe sich "nicht im klimabudgetären Klein-Klein verlieren".
Dazu versuchte #Nuesslein die Wissenschaftler zu disreditieren: ihre Argumente zeugten "von der Angst mancher Klimaexperten, medial nicht mehr stattzufinden." Auch Ausbremsen von Klimaschutz und Diffamierung von Experten ist gefährlicher Lobbyismus! cducsu.de/presse/pressem…
Das Ausbremsen von Klimaschutz ist für uns alle viel folgenreicher als jede persönliche Bereicherung.
Mein Kommentar damals dazu: spiegel.de/wissenschaft/m…
Read 4 tweets
4 Mar
Why I think that the 'cold blob' in the North Atlantic cannot be explained by wind changes (a question raised in the @nytimes) - a thread. Keep in mind that we're talking about the long-term evolution, not short-term variability. @PdeMenocal nytimes.com/interactive/20…
1. Halldór Björnsson of the Icelandic weather service has shown that short-term temperature fluctuations correlate with the heat exchange through the sea surface, but that this does not explain the longer-term development of the ‘cold blob’ over decades. realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
2. What we observe is a specific cold/warm "fingerprint", which is highly specific for an AMOC slowdown. I haven't seen any study that can explain this by wind changes. The physics behind this is well-understood ocean dynamics (vorticity conservation). realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
Read 8 tweets
26 Feb
Frisch erschienen: Unser neues Paper in Nature Geoscience erhärtet die Belege für eine einzigartige Abschwächung des Golfstromsystem (Atlantische Umwälzströmung, 𝗔𝗠𝗢𝗖) ! @NatureGeosci
Thread. 1/12
Erstautorin Levke Caesar (Maynooth University) hat eine Reihe von veröffentlichten AMOC Rekonstruktionen aus Proxydaten (v.a. aus Tiefseesedimenten) zusammengestellt, die bis 1600 Jahre zurück reichen. Sie zeigen Strömungsgeschwindigkeit, Wassermassen, Wärmetransport an. 2/12
Diese Daten zeigen übereinstimmend eine klare Abschwächung im 20. Jh; in den letzten Jahrzehnten ist die Strömung am schwächsten. In 9 der 11 Datenreihen ist dies statistisch signifikant. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
25 Feb
Just out: our new paper affirming the unprecedented slowdown of the Gulf Stream System (aka Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, 𝗔𝗠𝗢𝗖) in Nature Geoscience! @NatureGeosci A thread. 1/11
Lead author Levke Caesar compiled a range of different, published proxy data reconstructions of the AMOC - thanks to all their authors for sharing them. The longest ones go back 1600 years! They represent different AMOC facets: flow speed, water masses, heat transport. 2/11
These data consistently show an AMOC decline in the 20th Century, with the weakest AMOC state of the whole series in the last decades. This finding is statistically significant in 9 of the 11 time series. 3/11
Read 13 tweets
17 Feb
Two competing effects influence our northern winters:

#1 Global warming.

#2 Increasing polar air outbreaks due to stratospheric polar vortex disturbances.

In the long run #1 wins - our winters are getting warmer. 1/🧵 Image
That's expected as #2 just happens occasionally, and polar air is also getting warmer.

Some people point to long-term warming trends to cast doubt on whether #2 is even real, but that is a non-sequitur. It just means #1 wins in the long run. 2/🧵 Image
That disturbed stratospheric polar vortex states are linked to polar air outbreaks and thus cold extremes either in Eurasia or the US is shown by data analysis: nature.com/articles/s4161… 3/🧵
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!