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29 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
‘1 in 1,000 cases traced to outdoor transmission’ has now been reported around the world as research from Ireland

To correct record: this isn’t a research study & isn’t valid

Here’s why... 1/
npr.org/sections/healt…
basis of ‘1 in 1,000’ is 262 cases in 42 outbreaks
*only from outbreaks where >2 infected, & not all cases
*only from places that ~may~ be outdoors (21 construction, 20 sport & 1 in community)

& this 262 is compared to ~total~ 232,164 cases recorded in Ireland (to 24 Mar 21) 2/
Meanwhile this ~research~ has flown around the world, & risks influencing people’s behaviour & public policy 3/ ImageImageImageImage
it’s a fast moving situation & media are under pressure... but we all have ethical responsibilities when speaking publicly in a health emergency 4/

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More from @Orla_Hegarty

Orla Hegarty Profile picture
1 May
[Thread] Solving the #housing crisis means facing facts

#1 Planning Permission is not a barrier to housing in Dublin, there are over 40,000 ‘ready-to-go’ permissions for houses & apartments in Dublin Q2 2020

Just 2,000 homes were built in 2019, about 5% of available permissions Image
#2 Increasing supply alone won’t make housing affordable

‘additional 1% housing stock expected to lower house prices by 1.5% to 2%, all else equal’ -Economist @ianmulheirn

So by supply alone, Dublin would need 150,000+ new homes to become affordable housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… Image
Housing is an asset, the value of that asset can rise & fall in the market. The amount of housing supply is a small part of pricing

Economist @DrCameronMurray calls this asset pricing ‘not supply mountain’ Image
Read 9 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
24 Apr
[Thread] 🇮🇳 #India Prevention

#Covid19 is mostly caught by breathing infected air, not from hands

😷 Wear well-fitting masks everywhere indoors

🍽 Eat & drink outside & at a distance

🪟💨 ventilate rooms/vehicles, keep airflow moving at all times, open doors & windows 1/
🌀turn off or limit use of air-con units that recirculate cool, dry air

💦 avoid low humidity in air-con rooms (showers & cooking add moisture)

🛏 avoid shared bedrooms, partly open windows & doors for night airflow

🚙 🚌 open windows, turn fans to full fresh air & mask 2/
Why is air-conditioning higher risk for #Covid19?

🥶 virus survives longer in cool, dry air
🐪 nose mucus dries out & people are less protected
💨 less fresh air is brought in (to save energy)
📦 rooms/cars are sealed, & so virus is trapped & builds up like invisible smoke 3/
Read 10 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
10 Apr
Yet again, #Covid19 in #construction misreported @TheBusinessRTE

35 construction outbreaks in last 4 months (while sector mostly closed) of which 18 are currently ongoing & 4 are new construction outbreaks w/e 3 April

Let’s be open about the risks so that we can eliminate them
As with many other sectors, #Covid19 ‘risk’ to construction companies & employers ≠ #COVID19 risk to Ireland from that sector

When sectoral employers say they are “safe” they mean within their specific legal H&S obligations as employers, & this is small part of the full picture
employer H&S responsibilities stop at the gate & generally only extend to their own employees.. not sub-contractors, service providers, ‘bogus’ self employed etc.. or to transport, commuting, shopping, lodgings & other risks to a community that arise from activity in that sector
Read 5 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
10 Apr
Absolutely unbelievable that Chair of ‘@WHO Infection Prevention & Control Research & Development Expert Group for #COVID19’ does NOT recommend higher grade masks because “there are harms such as acne, eczema, conjunctivitis” (53 mins) #TransmissionMatters ucalgary.yuja.com/V/Video?v=3323…
Dr Conly has previously expressed concern that higher grade masks are “more costly, require fit testing, necessitate additional time & resources, do not provide an adequate fit in individuals with beards, & may provide a false sense of security” #COVID19 aricjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
(clip here) higher grade masks not recommended by WHO infection control expert because of risk of “acne” @WHO @DrMikeRyan #TransmissionMatters #Covid19
Read 4 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
9 Apr
Every supermarket reply says cleaning when ~there’s 1 in 10,000 chance of virus from surfaces~

Not mention of infected air, which is how #Covid19 actually transmits

1 year into a pandemic! @Aldi_Ireland @lidl_ireland @dunnesstores @TescoIrl @SuperValuIRL irishmirror.ie/lifestyle/safe…
‘risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection via fomite transmission route is low, & generally less than 1 in 10,000, which means that each contact with a contaminated surface has less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of causing an infection’
CENTRE FOR DISEASE CONTROL (USA) cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
my spot check showed that most supermarkets likely have good air quality already.
They can demonstrate low risk to their customers & staff (H&S) with a €200 carbon dioxide CO2 meter
Read 4 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
5 Apr
‘dogma that increasing housing supply will unlock issues is becoming increasingly jaded in face of overwhelmingly evidence

Not once in recent history has supply improved affordability, & constant erosion of affordability lies at the heart of the problem’ irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Economist @DrCameronMurray supply/demand analysis suggests that ‘constraints* on density increase optimal rate of supply by reducing return to delaying development’

*constraints meaning stable Planning policy, not lowering standards or raising height caps
‘The policy lessons are (1) the relationship between demand growth & optimal supply rate limits ability for market supply to reduce prices & (2) increasing the cost to delaying housing development is primary way to increase market rate of housing supply’ osf.io/7n8rj/
Read 7 tweets

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