Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #housing

Most recents (24)

1/ For the last 12 months or so, I've been banging on about the housing market being in a bubble.

I believe that there is a substantial dislocation between the price and the intrinsic value of housing.

In this thread I will outline my case.

#housing #RealEstate #investing
2/ My valuation assumes:

A) Intrinsic value of housing comes from rent you could charge (or don't charge yourself)
B) Rents cannot grow faster than economy forever
C) Economy will grow at risk-free rate
D) No growth reinvest required

How has this model performed historically?
3/ I have plotted Real Price and Rent Indexes for Amsterdam and the Gov Bond Rate, going back to 1620.

Buying in 1619 and selling in 1986, netted you nothing in real capital gains. But, in the 35 years since, prices are up 559 per cent. Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct #Inflation released by Stats SA is at 5.0%, unchanged from Sep. #Food & #non-alcoholic beverages; #housing, #utilities; #transport; and #miscellaneous goods & services were the major drivers. Global inflation going up. Inflation no longer transitory, maybe persistent (1/N)
#Core inflation at 3.2%, still very low. #Goods inflation at 7.1%, with #none-durable goods at 8.6%! Services inflation is at 3.0%. #administrered prices (taxes!) rising by a whooping 11.2% (2/N)
CPI inflation excluding administered prices is at 3.8%, way below the #SARB @SAReserveBank mid-point of 4.5%. So, if the SARB hikes tomorrow, which i do not think it should and it will, its fighting inflation caused by the government (3/N)
Read 5 tweets
Over the last few months I’ve spoken with dozens of real estate & mortgage industry executives, trying to gauge what impact (if any) #crypto is having on the #housing market. Here’s what I’ve concluded. (1/) realestateconsulting.com/bubblicious-cr…
The number of home buyers w/documented crypto accounts has risen from ~0% one year ago to between 5% & 10% today. Platforms such as @coinbase $COIN were noted most often in my conversations, with $BTC & $ETH common plays. (2/)
It's more difficult tracking the % of home buyers using crypto gains towards the down payment on a home purchase. Most mortgage lenders & home builders estimate ~5% or less. However...(3/)
Read 12 tweets
Current macro policies should avoid hard landing in the property market while boost the overall economic vitality,pointed out by Zhang Bin, Zhu He and Zhong Yi at CF40 in the working paper How to Prevent the Risk of Hard Landing in the Real Estate Market.1/6
The paper argues China’s #economy still faces great downward pressure in the short term. In particular,risk of hard landing in the #housing market should be prevented. Its threat to financial system is limited,but it will take a heavy toll on the real economy.2/6
To avoid such hard landing, #liquidity crisis of real estate companies should be prevented so as to ensure their cash flows. Specifically, three measures need to be adopted.3/6
Read 6 tweets
🌎 THREAD 💵
On Finance Day at #COP26 , I wanted to share key messages coming from international dialogues I held with @LeaderGCC, @WEF, @OSF, and other international experts (1/6)

#InvestinCities #ClimateAction #BristolClimateAction
In a rapidly urbanising world, cities hold the key for achieving ambitious climate action and development goals, from #decarbonisation and nature’s recovery to resilient, prosperous and inclusive societies that leave no one behind. (2/6)

#InvestinCities #ClimateAction
Cities need long-term, patient capital that lets them plan and then make the necessary investments in key systems such as water and sanitation, public transport, #housing, and #energy. (3/6)

#InvestinCities #ClimateAction
Read 6 tweets
On Monday the #EZLN came to Dublin to meet our movements.

You could tell the story of Dublin’s #SocialMovements through class:

they met working-class community groups, housing activists, migrant members of the new Irish working class, trade unionists and many shades of left. Welcome to Dublin
But you could also say that we talked about #patriarchy and violence against women, #racism and colonialism, land and ecology, autonomy and rebellion. For the #EZLN as in actual communities, these are not separate struggles:

Read 42 tweets
When people “object” to #housing.. look closely at the housing..
*deregulated space standards
*deregulated fire safety
*deregulated building heights
*deregulated ventilation & daylight
*deregulated amenities Image
relying on smoke seals on *one* door to stop a kitchen fire filling the corridor with smoke ..& compromising the escape of up to 10 families.. & the building is not designed for ladder rescue, if the corridor isn’t safe… Image
More than 40 families on this floor will be sharing 4 lifts with the families on 8 other floors

3,000+ people will be living on 5 hectares (14 acres)

Planning permission granted, ready-to-go in Dublin 7

Sales prices €450,000+
or “affordable” with public subsidy at €350,000
Read 4 tweets
In July of 2021, the @CDCgov announced a decrease in US life expectancy of 1.5 years, the biggest one-year decline since #WWII. Even before COVID-19, however, the US has seen several years of declining life expectancy in the past decade. #ph260720 #COVID
cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom…
Meanwhile, we see a widening gap in medical care between those with high and low status, leading to much larger declines in life expectancy for black and brown populations during #COVID19. How do you think these gaps came to be? #ph260720 #Healthcare
#hospitals continue to #Innovate and improve their medical care, following charters to improve health and care for the needy. However, they often fail to address the non-medical needs of their community, the “social determinants of health” #ph260720 #CommunityHealth
Read 13 tweets
The number of children infected with #Covid-19 is less among all other age group in the global population. How about the #psychological, #social impact in on #children? Researches suggests social and psychological impact in this group were mostly severe.
To find some answer and have idea let's take a closer look at the researches and figures provided by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), which shows the magnitude of the pandemic’s #impact on #children. Image
As families lose their sources of #income and home environments are turned upside down due to the socioeconomic impacts of Covid-19, #children find themselves more vulnerable to #poverty and likely to be deprived of their basic needs. Image
Read 26 tweets
#Housing #Budget2022
Headline: “a budget package for 2022 of just under €6bn”
gov.ie/en/press-relea…
CAPITAL (“on-off” investment, new-build & purchases) €4.1bn
- €2.6bn Exchequer
- €1.5bn LDA (Land Development Agency) & HFA (Housing Finance Agency)

CURRENT (on- going spending, leases, rent supports, etc) €1.4bn
“11,820 new homes to be added to supply of social housing through build, acquisition & leasing, with focus on new build (9,000 homes)”
..unclear how many direct build (good value for money), acquisition (vfm in low demand locations only), & leasing (very poor vfm)
Read 5 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 10/09/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/10/09/dai…
Mortality, Length of Stay, and Healthcare Costs Associated With Multidrug-Resistant Bacterial Infections Among Elderly Hospitalized Patients in the United States

academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…

#elderly #MultidrugResistantBacteria #InfectionPrevention #consequences #StudyReport
Read 8 tweets
My🧵of the day: An important piece of House Financial Services’ #BuildBackBetter is funding for tribal housing. Tribal nations wouldn't be eligible for many of the other major investments in this bill, so keeping the $2B for these programs is critical for #EquitableRecovery
Inadequate funding for tribal #housing programs has meant American Indians & Alaska Natives living in tribal areas cannot access the housing supports they need. This funding would help decrease overcrowding, repair older homes, & improve climate resiliency.
Tribal #housing programs allow tribal nations to build & rehabilitate affordable housing, provide rental assistance to low-income American Indians & Alaska Natives living on tribal lands, & other housing & community development projects that meet a tribe’s unique needs.
Read 7 tweets
Lee Rowley is the new Construction Minister, making him the 9th Construction Minister in the last 5 years and the UK currently averages 1 construction minister every 7 months...
#ukconstruction #construction
... Looking over the longer-term, Lee Rowley is also the 20th Construction Minister in the last 20 years, averaging 1 every 13 months. The lack of stability in the position is a long-term problem but it has clearly got worse in the last 5 years...
#ukconstruction #construction
... Unfortunately, government views the Construction Minister position as a 'stepping stone' position whereby, if you succeed then you get promoted to a higher-profile position or if you fail you get relegated (back) to the backbenches....
#ukconstruction #construction
Read 10 tweets
New 🧵and paper! The $75 billion #housing voucher expansion in #BuildBackBetter legislation would be the biggest step in decades toward ending #homelessness & housing instability. cbpp.org/research/housi…
Overall, the expansion would fund about 750,000 vouchers after a five-year phase in & help 1.7 million people live in safe, stable #housing. Here are our estimates of who that would help in every state: cbpp.org/research/housi…
As they move toward finalizing legislation, policymakers should recognize the impact any reduction in the voucher funding would have.
Read 11 tweets
🇨🇦 With Canada's ruling Liberals projected to form a minority government, here's a look at how voters decided their vote and what they had to say 👇More #Elxn44 coverage: twitter.com/i/events/14313… 1/9
♻️ Emily Wynn, a first-year student at Ryerson University, said action on #climatechange is what guided her vote for #Elxn44. After a summer of record-breaking weather, climate change action was the top issue this election, data shows reut.rs/3zCqmx3 2/9
🏞 For many Canadians, 2021 is the year the climate crisis hit home. John Moore said his message is to make the world know that Ontario and Canada care about the environment #Elxn44 reut.rs/3zCqmx3 3/9
Read 7 tweets
In August we saw #inflation growth moderate further, for the second consecutive month, at least relative to the impressive rate of growth in #prices witnessed around mid-year.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) came in at 0.10% month-over-month and 3.98% year-over-year, which was considerably less than the consensus forecast and was driven higher by #shelter components.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a solid 0.27% month-over-month and came in at 5.20% year-over-year.
Read 11 tweets
This is hard to write but it is true for many. What I’m about to say is a harsh reality of what people go through.

What I am about to say is also the reason why a lot of people don’t ask for help.

People do not ask for help because of the fears and stigmas that exist.

#hope
Here Is Something to think about,

What if you were a #singleparent with a #child

You work full time for $15.00/hr

You take home roughly $960.00 per paycheck (bi-weekly after taxes)

#singleparent #parenting #Blessed #grateful #calgary #calgarylife #alberta #yyc

@EveryAlbertan
Your bills per month:

$1,000 or more for rent
$150 or more for cable/internet
$250 or more for utilities
$150 per month for car insurance

So let’s do the math

You bring home about
$1,920.00 a month

Your bills average about $1,500(give or take)

@GrannyGTArp @BallerGearCA
Read 25 tweets
The possible inclusion of the #Left party in a German government will certainly not “spook markets”. /thread
As per my thread below, the #Left has moderated its demands on economics, welfare policies and taxes. Still leftist, but not extreme. /2
But will that not lower Germany’s #growth? Maybe, medium to long term. Raise unemployment a bit? Maybe. (The #Left income tax plans create 300k jobs, acc to ifo institute). /3 ifo.de/publikationen/…
Read 14 tweets
The #Left party in Germany put together a government programme for the first weeks of a hypothetical #SPD-led coalition with the Green and them. Some fun stuff in there. /thread
The #labour market programme is a stronger version of SPD and Green ideas, but nothing the 3 parties could not compromise on. Min wag: Left 13 Euros, the other two 12 Euros. That sort of thing. /2
Welfare same: higher basic welfare (#Hartz IV) rates, end to welfare sanctions and a generous basic income for kids (bit more generous than SPD and Green proposals). /3
Read 13 tweets
Thread: As @annymoliva explains, the Supreme Court’s decision ending the #EvictionMoratorium is devastating for millions of families. Here’s more about the federal investment needed to make sure we don’t repeat the same mistakes next time.
The impending #eviction crisis was avoidable. Rigorous research shows that #housing vouchers are highly effective at reducing #homelessness, housing instability, and overcrowding and at improving other outcomes for families and children. cbpp.org/research/housi…
Yet 3-in-4 households who qualify for rental assistance don't receive any because of limited funding. And the lucky families that do get a #housing voucher had to wait over two years on average. cbpp.org/research/housi…
Read 7 tweets
Thread: Millions of renters at risk of eviction are grappling with the news that they are no longer protected by the @CDCgov #EvictionMoratorium. The @USSupremeCourt decision last night makes clear that Congress must act before another nation-wide eviction ban can be issued.
Congress should act now, and states & localities can also take steps to prevent & delay #evictions.

Federal lawmakers can make sure this preventable crisis never happens again by sharply expanding #housing vouchers in upcoming recovery legislation. cbpp.org/research/housi…
Here is a link to a tool for finding rental assistance in your community. And below are some steps state and local officials should take. consumerfinance.gov/coronavirus/mo…
Read 14 tweets
🧵1/7 The #CRISPresearch team developed recommendations for @IndyChamber to advance inclusive economic growth in Indy. They focused on economic development, housing, access to economic opportunity, & community equity. Read the thread below from the report: policyinstitute.iu.edu/news-media/sto…
🧵2/7 Any region hoping to achieve full #EconomicInclusion & prosperity must address institutional disparities. That includes recognizing the negative impact legacies of racist and/or exclusionary policies had on residents & taking steps to correct those errors. #CRISPresearch
🧵3/7 #CRISPresearch analysts recommend developing plans to create wealth-building opportunities for people in groups that have historically been kept on the margins of the economy. To do that, leaders first need to assess & eliminate policies that reinforce economic disparities.
Read 7 tweets
#housing Homeowners better contact their services. Investors are pushing a new program called ALM. Basically, if you don't reach out to them, they will modify your loan. Better to call them than not have options later down the line. Just my 2 cents, do as you please...
Servicers*
I wish I had the reach on Twitter to let more people know about this. Everyone who bought a house in this market is about to be pissed when they get a letter in the mail saying their term was stretched out to 30 years (i.e 15 & 20 year mortgagees). Please be diligent #homeowner's
Read 4 tweets

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