Am prompted to do this 🧵 following @BEERG sharing of Gove 19 April’16 speech, @kevinhorourke observation on interests & ideas & @CER_Grant observation that historians will ponder the weakness of economic interests in Brexit negs at @InstituteGC yesterday @BrigidLaffan
1. Seems to me that @BorisJohnson has delivered on the @michaelgove 2016 speech in one important sense-not the sunny uplands of Brexit but the working out of what Brexit was to this clique who drove the Leave campaign @BrigidLaffan
2. That was a total rejection of the #EU model of internationalisation, its governance regimes, institutions, regulatory frameworks, its ideals & the political, economic & legal order it represents. @BrigidLaffan
3. This was evident in tone of Brexit negs, for example @DavidGHFrost dismissal of EU as ‘your organisation’ @MichelBarnier & refusal to recognise nature of EU re. Diplomatic states. Treating it an as IO despite the fact that there were U.K. MEPs in @Europarl_EN@BrigidLaffan
4. Evident also in refusal of a chapter on foreign & security policy & the preference for bilateral relations particularly the key capitals post Brexit. @BrigidLaffan
5. #UK negotiating strategy was driven by anything but the EU aka @pmdfoster wonderful long read on the negs. Core principle was to prove you can do a deal with EU without its laws. Not smart-of@course you can but it will be a thin thin deal @BrigidLaffan
6. The desire to by pass & diminish EU as a polity will not serve @BorisJohnson or U.K. in the short or medium term. EU is both the member states & the collective. You can’t have one without the other. @BrigidLaffan
7. There will be no strategic relationship unless London comes to terms with the EU & begins to understand what it means to its near neighbours. Not just Brussels or bureaucracy but the way this part of the world handles the challenges of 21st century @BrigidLaffan
8. Brexiteers might prefer it were other but #EU is going nowhere & London needs a strategy for dealing with it as it is-a hybrid political system with market power. It will prove easier for Irish business to go around U.K. than it will for U.K. to avoid coming to terms with EU
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Extensive U.K. discussion on #EU27 approach to #Brexit. Began with @anandMenon1 & @jillongovt who suggested 1 reason for hard Brexit is ‘defensive’ EU. Now @Mij_Europe has a poll offering the ‘defensive’ option. @NashSGC has thread explaining why EU defensive-SM. @BrigidLaffan
1. EU must defend the gains of integration both polity & market power. This is not ‘defensive’ as in anxious but defending achievements @BrigidLaffan
2. Membership has to matter or why would states submit to mutual vulnerability. If the #Brexit argument is to throw off constraint why would the 27 allow an imbalance between rights & obligations especially for a large state @BrigidLaffan
1. Unity stemmed from existential nature of #Brexit-first country to leave EU, a vote of no confidence in the Union & the hard Brexiteers led by Farage wanted destruction of the Union @BrigidLaffan
2. #EU27 had to protect the polity & the market against UK’s departure. Membership has to matter-if a former member could retain lots of rights while outside the club the internal equilibrium of the Union would be jeopardised. @BrigidLaffan
Thread on EU too defensive claim from @anandMenon1 & @jillongovt in #Brexit negs. EU27 had something to defend & continues to have. What. 1. The share polity, Union. 2. Collective achievements-SM & shared policies. 3. Quality of membership. @BrigidLaffan
2. U.K. a was champion of outouts/opt ins. Had bespoke membership but that was not enough to keep UK in. Post ref-U.K. never set out a clear landing zone for post membership relationship that had worked through the trade-offs. @BrigidLaffan
3. U.K. set down redlines on SM, CU & Court that narrowed the possible deal that EU could agree without undermining its core principles & balance of rights & obligations which is critical to future of EU. @BrigidLaffan
Very pessimistic @TheEconomist editorial on #EU this issue. Fully agree with the failings/challenges identified but editorial distorts the Union’s history in two ways. 1. Says that EU has had a ‘sense of direction’ in the past & this time EU has lost its way. @BrigidLaffan
1. At the end of the 1970s following the two oil crises, EU had many common problems but no agreement on direction/solutions. Found that direction in SEA & single market. In fact @TheEconomist was also very concerned by EU capacity to govern. @BrigidLaffan
2. Treaty change which the editorial suggests was continuous was in fact episodic. First major treaty change post Rome took almost 30 years-treaty change not the EU norm for much of its history. We should expect treaty change to be episodic. @BrigidLaffan
Short thread on Irish election #GE2020 for my non-Irish followers. 1. #FF the party that informed Peter Mair’s ‘cartel party’ will not be a cartel party again. It will never regain its pre-crash standing. 2. SF emerged as the largest party in vote terms. @BrigidLaffan
The performance of #SF was a surprise given their 2019 EP & local elections performance but they managed to frame a manifesto that really resonated with the electorate @BrigidLaffan
The election was not about BREXIT but domestic issues-housing & health were the top two. Irish voters not concerned about jobs or the economy for the first time in 10 years. @BrigidLaffan
@BBCnews & @SkyNews & the multiple correspondents tasked with reporting/commenting on #Brexit you have a tendency to frame & report on optics not substance. Short thread on why yesterday was a very bad day for #UK@BrigidLaffan
1. GAC ministerial meeting met in Brussels yesterday. UK left an empty chair. Message-we won’t waste our resources on what concerns you even though it was a discussion about ‘rule of law’. Not smart when PM is going to Lux to meet #Juncker. @BrigidLaffan
2. Commission President Juncker & @MichelBarnier were cordial but clear in the post meeting statement. It is U.K’s ‘responsability’ to come forward with ‘legally operational solutions’. Despite the spin there are no such solutions on the table. @BrigidLaffan