1. Unity stemmed from existential nature of #Brexit-first country to leave EU, a vote of no confidence in the Union & the hard Brexiteers led by Farage wanted destruction of the Union @BrigidLaffan
2. #EU27 had to protect the polity & the market against UK’s departure. Membership has to matter-if a former member could retain lots of rights while outside the club the internal equilibrium of the Union would be jeopardised. @BrigidLaffan
3. London was adept at fashioning coalitions across the EU-building coalitions. There was a real fear that it would try to divide & conquer & weaken the Union from the outside. @FCDOGovUK did a planning exercise on vulnerabilities of member states to Brexit. @BrigidLaffan
4. The Hungarian regime is a serious threat to the EU but the cases are very different. #Brexit was about leaving the club, the dominant arena in Europe for managing deep interdependence. There could be no special status for former member states, just third country status
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Thread on EU too defensive claim from @anandMenon1 & @jillongovt in #Brexit negs. EU27 had something to defend & continues to have. What. 1. The share polity, Union. 2. Collective achievements-SM & shared policies. 3. Quality of membership. @BrigidLaffan
2. U.K. a was champion of outouts/opt ins. Had bespoke membership but that was not enough to keep UK in. Post ref-U.K. never set out a clear landing zone for post membership relationship that had worked through the trade-offs. @BrigidLaffan
3. U.K. set down redlines on SM, CU & Court that narrowed the possible deal that EU could agree without undermining its core principles & balance of rights & obligations which is critical to future of EU. @BrigidLaffan
Very pessimistic @TheEconomist editorial on #EU this issue. Fully agree with the failings/challenges identified but editorial distorts the Union’s history in two ways. 1. Says that EU has had a ‘sense of direction’ in the past & this time EU has lost its way. @BrigidLaffan
1. At the end of the 1970s following the two oil crises, EU had many common problems but no agreement on direction/solutions. Found that direction in SEA & single market. In fact @TheEconomist was also very concerned by EU capacity to govern. @BrigidLaffan
2. Treaty change which the editorial suggests was continuous was in fact episodic. First major treaty change post Rome took almost 30 years-treaty change not the EU norm for much of its history. We should expect treaty change to be episodic. @BrigidLaffan
Short thread on Irish election #GE2020 for my non-Irish followers. 1. #FF the party that informed Peter Mair’s ‘cartel party’ will not be a cartel party again. It will never regain its pre-crash standing. 2. SF emerged as the largest party in vote terms. @BrigidLaffan
The performance of #SF was a surprise given their 2019 EP & local elections performance but they managed to frame a manifesto that really resonated with the electorate @BrigidLaffan
The election was not about BREXIT but domestic issues-housing & health were the top two. Irish voters not concerned about jobs or the economy for the first time in 10 years. @BrigidLaffan
@BBCnews & @SkyNews & the multiple correspondents tasked with reporting/commenting on #Brexit you have a tendency to frame & report on optics not substance. Short thread on why yesterday was a very bad day for #UK@BrigidLaffan
1. GAC ministerial meeting met in Brussels yesterday. UK left an empty chair. Message-we won’t waste our resources on what concerns you even though it was a discussion about ‘rule of law’. Not smart when PM is going to Lux to meet #Juncker. @BrigidLaffan
2. Commission President Juncker & @MichelBarnier were cordial but clear in the post meeting statement. It is U.K’s ‘responsability’ to come forward with ‘legally operational solutions’. Despite the spin there are no such solutions on the table. @BrigidLaffan
#Brexit beyond current crisis. Question. If we assume that the #HMG & U.K. need a deal with EU27 at some stage, how does what PM Johnson is doing affect this. @BrigidLaffan
1. #HMG has increased risk & uncertainty for all of Europe but has not put a single document with credible solutions on the table. David Frost & Steven Barclay have got to Burssels saying we want a deal but no solutions. @BrigidLaffan
2. @BorisJohnson has just now prorogued parliament which heightens U.K. crisis & signals to EU27 that political turmoil is gripping U.K. There is no incentive for EU27 to do anything other than keep channels open. @BrigidLaffan
Now that peak Brexit approaches & London has ratcheted up blame game, let’s review how UK has handled Brexit. Brexit negs will be used as a case study. UK political elite especially those in power will be judged to have made an appalling mess of same @BrigidLaffan
1. No attempt was made to find a domestic accommodation following a narrow Leave win given the scale of what Brexit implied. @BrigidLaffan
2. PM opted by October 2016 for a hard Brexit & by January Lancaster had boxed herself in by setting out incompatible preferences-@rdanielkelemen trilemma. @BrigidLaffan