@thattai I am glad to see decent language now unlike your earlier posts. I hope you can make this a habit. Your argument, as I understand it, is not that the model went wrong in March, rather that policy makers were misled by it. If yes, your argument is based on flawed premise.
https://twitter.com/thattai/status/1388487287592296452
Policy makers do not make decisions based on one input. They collect them from multiple sources. While we did give our feedback to them last month, and it was received graciously, they were skeptical about our predictions. Seemingly they had better inputs. 😊
As for our model, it adopts a very different approach to parameter estimation. An approach that is becoming ubiquitous: use data. If one argues that it needs to be improved, I will readily agree. However, to retire? That is truly bizarre!
Our model needs time for a phase to stabilize (as explained at multiple places) but once it does, the predictions have been fairly accurate. For example, on 24th April, we predicted a range for peak value and period of new infections for India. And it continues to hold.
Other models that I have come across make very different predictions. But maybe I am not fully aware. Since you appear to be, please share if the models that you are aware of, make similar predictions or not.
Then it is a simple matter of waiting out for a few days and see which one comes closer to reality.😊What do you say? If we do not get it right, we will get back to work to improve the model further. And if we do, I hope you will get back to your research with renewed vigor!
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