Alastair Thompson Profile picture
May 2, 2021 19 tweets 9 min read Read on X
The interconnections between global weather systems is becoming a trend of a fascinating voyage of metereological discovery that started in The #WestSahara in March, moved focus to #Ethiopia and #ArabianStorms in April and has now widened to include Europe and India.
Around lunch I did a wrap up thread about #EuropeanStorms activity caused by Round 1 of the #WestAfricaWaterPlume.
And to see what happened in Round 1 yesterday, this thread is the best place to start.
The events in Europe yesterday resulted in a fairly large #ArabianStorms event in the #MiddleEast this afternoon which was not forecast.

It started midway between a line of storms across Iran and a strengthening rain laden stream crossing Yemen.
Here's a closeup of the storm's early formation. Which to me looks delightfully whimsical.
Four hours later the #ArabianStorm complex covered an area around the size of Italy. In the top left of the image you can see what most likely helped it to grow so fast. Incoming moisture coming in hot from the north.
Here is another view of this, the storm Gulf storm is bottom right. The moisture is part of the right hand plume identified in yesterday's thread - which spun north towards southern Germany whilst making a sharp turn southwards - initially making landfall in Egypt.
Here's a view of this rapidly turning easterly arm of the #WestAfricaWaterPlume from last night.

Since then the #WestAfricaPlumeEvent has evolved considerably,
Here we see the picture from mid afternoon today. The #WestAfricanWaterPlume has become a multitude - with the strongest river in the far west. Many of the plumes are only becoming visible once they get close to the Mediterranean.
This animation shows the plumes in greater detail.
The plumes seem to operate in bursts, and the significant ones are those at the far right. This picture shows the scene as of 30 minutes ago.

The main feature is the big area of clear air in a roughly square box from the Adriatic Coast to Greece heading North East.
Compare the position of the storm in the attached tweet - the one over France [] from 24 hours ago, with where it is now. About to be pushed across the Baltic into #Sweden.

That storm is doing a consistent 100kmph. As is the main body of the plume.
The next three animations follow the progress of the main plume bulldozer, which is proceeding almost precisely as forecast for today.

Here we see 9am to 12pm.
This animation picks up from 12pm and takes us through to 3pm.
And this one to 5.15pm.
The leading edge of what I am calling the Polish Storm is now over the Baltic. And as its development and position was well forecast we can perhaps see where it is going...

This forecast has the storm near Moscow tomorrow night & an Atlantic storm in the UK at the same time.
This images are the CMC (left) and ECMWF (right) precipitable water forecasts for 6pm tonight. They are both very good.
And here are the two forecasts for 6pm tomorrow. Unfortunately the low systems being produced by these bursts of African water are fairly consistently bringing cold Arctic air South.
We shall see what happens tomorrow I guess :)

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More from @althecat

Mar 29
This is an interesting line of questioning here from Journalist @samhusseini which perhaps points to the substantive legal sophistry underlying the U.S. position on Gaza, in particular wrt the legality of wholesale slaughter y Israel of Gaza’s civilian population with U.S. supplied weapons .

@samhusseini tries to get answer from @StateDept’s Matthew Miller
(again) , he has been seeking an unambiguous answer repeatedly on this question as to « whether the U.S. govt accepts that the 4th Geneva Convention rules apply in the Gaza Conflict.
Meanwhile the rule of international law seems to be catching up on the Israeli-US « axis of sophistry » as we can see here in an new additional ICJ ruling on the Gaza Genocide complaint which coincides with the passage of a binding UNSC Resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in the conflict.
The most effective « Canary in the coal mine » in this drama from well before its initiation has been Francesca Albanese @FranceskAlbs.

Listen to her now.

Why? Because this crisis now stands on a knife edge. A window of hope for peace is now a little ajar, thanks to the combined weight of the UNSC ceasefire resolution and the progressing ICJ proceeding.

Albanese’s commitment, determination and enlightened investigation of the « Gaza War Palestine File » is peerless.

Her work began long before October 7th and this current obscene assault on the UN Charter, the rule of law and the « rules based order » which now engulfs the entire globe 🌍 in it’s implications.

This war, and Netanyahu’s impending attack on a concentrated starving population of well over 1 million souls is unprecedented, in its illegality as well as its possible consequences.

The entire world 🌍 is watching and praying and chanting and making offerings for peace. A peace that one man, an indicted financial and political criminal as well as a war criminal under investigation by the ICC over his role in both the settlements & the Great March of Return.

Read 5 tweets
Feb 22
An interesting report on Egypt 🇪🇬 ‘s response/practice when it comes to the shifting sands in international financial trading as a result of BRICS and the rise in the importance of the Yuan in particular for settling trade transactions.

At a practical level nations anticipating a loss in US dollar liquidity are increasingly hedging their bets on trade financing and broadening the quantity of trade in currencies other than the USD.

At a macro global level there is a high level of risk associated with these changes, principally because of the astronomical amount of US debt and deposits denominated in the USD.

The report shows that Egypt 🇪🇬 - a close U.S. ally is simultaneously seeking to be pragmatic about the threat this poses to its own economy by this expanding phenomena.

I have long considered that this « great unwinding » of the USD is the greatest threat to international economic conditions of my lifetime. I expect central bankers are having conniptions all over the planet at the moment.

Made in Egypt, sold in dollars goo.gl
Here is the original report I am referring to here. (See Quoted tweet).

What is happening now in global finance dwarfs the GFC of 2008 and its predecessor crises, the Asian Flue in the late 29th Century and the Dot Com Crash of the early 2000s.

The US Federal Reserve played a critical role in righting the great ship of global finance in those cases by providing liquidity. It is unclear whether they will be either willing or able to do so in the coming crises. Europe and China together need to consider how they can cooperate to address this coming crisis.

Critically the causes of this crisis are different and the War in Gaza is extremely important in relation to concerns about the Dollar and is driving the hoarding of USD liquidity by the super rich which is most probably one of the drivers of what is happening here.
P.S. India 🇮🇳 and OPEC likely also have an important role to play in addressing this coming crisis.

The simple truth is that USD Hegemony is unravelling and the impact of this is and will continue to be extremely destabilising globally in a manner unprecedented in the post WWII era.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 8
Lots of People have been raving to me about this amazing piece from @JohnJCampbell in the early summer. Just read it and OMG! Is it good or what.

NZ’s politics as we begin 2024 are febrile in a manner significantly beyond anything I have ever seen thanks to the bonkers agenda set out by the coalition govt that should not have been allowed to happen.

If you haven’t read this yet do so.1news.co.nz/2023/12/30/joh…
Justifiably the bit in the piece on former pm, Labour Leader @chrishipkins is excoriating, albeit in the relatively understated personal rhetorical tone in which @JohnJCampbell has achieved mastery.

“Labour’s vote almost halved in three years and their leader is talking about “vibe”.
“People don’t vote on a left-right continuum. They vote on the vibe of the campaign”, Chris Hipkins declared.
I’m not suggesting a hair shirt – Labour should be taking stock not doing penance. But some acknowledgement that they arrived at an election campaign without an actual campaign, might be useful.
If you’re having a sausage sizzle and you don’t have any sausages, that’s not a vibe issue. It’s that the central ingredient isn’t there.
Audrey Young asked Chris Hipkins what sort of Leader of the Opposition he wants to be. He talked about “highlighting how we would do things differently, and charting a different course”, which echoes David Lange’s belief that if you want to be elected you have to look like a government in waiting.
But then Chris Hipkins said, “you won’t see much of that in the first few months, because we need to take stock and we need to the opportunity to reflect and refresh.”
Good God. The first few months? (Is Labour on sabbatical?) By that stage the Government will be insisting that everyone called Wiremu change their name to William.”
Although it’s still early 2024 - and therefore not yet the time for such things - at least not for the political caucuses in NZ most of whom are at the beach most probably - it’s past time for a debate over @nzlabour Party leadership to begin imo. Chris Hipkins cannot remain in his leadership position. This is untenable and blocks the kind of cross party thinking/alliance on the left that is needed.

This far right extremist govt did not need to happen - a TPM/Green/Labour/NZF coalition would have had a majority of 7 - but @ChrisHipkins unilaterally (in another captains call) blocked this.

Had the left contested this post election by engaging with NZ First in discussions the divisive policy trajectory we are currently on might have been at least softened if not averted. A wide ranging public debate over the direction of NZ’s next Govt would have taken place and some of the extremism present in what we now see would have been watered down.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 23, 2023
GAZA CHRISTMAS CARTOON THREAD:

Martin Rowson @Guardian on Christmas in Gaza – cartoon

THREAD theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
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2.
Christmas Gaza- Times of India
#GazaChristmas timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cartoons/line-…
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3.
Cartoon Movement - Christmas in Gaza
Many More At The Link >> cartoonmovement.com/cartoon/christ…



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Read 16 tweets
Dec 13, 2023
#COP @UNFCCC Exec Sec Simon Stiell is about to make a brief statement outside the Plenary and take questions from media.
Part 1
Part 2
Read 8 tweets

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