Thread by @Jason

1/Been getting a ton of questions from founders about the $4b Clubhouse valuation

Here's how to do the math.

-- CH will make ~$10 a year per users
-- With 5-10m users that's $50-100m in revenue
-- 10x revenue is $250m to $1b in value

so why $4b?? read on ...

2/When a startup is growing fast in a hot market people give credit for 2-5x their performance in order to "get the deal"

That surges CH's valuation to $500m to $5b--in this case it landed at $4b

This makes no sense... unless you invested in Facebook, Uber, or Google!

So..

3/How do you get in on a valuation like this as a founder?

a) you need to grow VERY fast (50%+ a month)
b) you need to have big brand names on your cap table
c) you need to a competitive marketplace/bubble
d) you don't want revenue because it pins the valuation to reality

4/CH has secured the bag, so they have a decade to grow into the valuation with their war chest.

Wish them luck! Will look choppy for a year or two, but they're smart cats and I think they will return capital.

5/Also, investors get their money out, so even if they raised $250m, if the company gets sold for $250m the investors get out even... which means they get a free option on it becoming Facebook or Uber or Google or Airbnb.

any questions?