POV: this is the last presidential election in the history of the United States
.@notkavi huh looks like that data update we added in really did make this a lot more interesting
i do not want to hear any more complaints from any of you about this bot not producing interesting enough scenarios

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More from @lxeagle17

2 May
Model update -- @bot_2024 V3.0 is out! @notkavi and I have completely rebuilt it to use more generic data across elections and better model partisanship and turnout on a demographic level, which should give us more interesting and realistic coalitions for 2024. Details in thread! Image
This model projects 2024 demographics from the available 2012, 2016, and 2020 demographic data. It then takes in county-level demographic data for 2012, 2016, and 2020 and uses it to construct underlying demographic features for the electorate.
We use pretty interesting demographic features commonly available across the 2012/2016/2020 electorates, such as CVAP with racial breakdown, poverty, income, religion, and education. That also helps us get more information about what's happening with the underlying electorate.
Read 11 tweets
25 Apr
Come on. Not every nation has the resources to do what the United Stares can. As a world leader, it’s incumbent upon the USA to help those in need, especially because their safety and ours are so intertwined.
India, Brazil, and other poorer nations literally do not have the resources to fund and purchase 600M extra doses and leave them sitting in ultra-cold storage. This is where countries need a hand up more than ever.
Screenshot cuz it’s gone.
Read 4 tweets
21 Apr
Strange to see the replies to @bot_2024. Some insist 2024 could be an R+2 year, but then dismiss the possibility of a D+10 year in the same breath. But both basically consist of parties getting electoral reversion with one demographic while accelerating their gains with another.
There's more evidence for Hispanics reverting than there is for white suburbanites doing so, but it's still not prudent for Democrats to toss Hispanic reversion around as a given. It's not! That's why Biden's approval rating staying high with Hispanic voters is so important.
With regards to white suburbanites and the GOP, I honestly don't think the GOP has shown that they're intent on doing anything but doubling down on the Trump electoral strategy any time soon. So no, I don't find that scenario likely right now unless they nominate Charlie Baker.
Read 4 tweets
13 Apr
What happens if you project the 2020 electorate onto a midterm?

Here's the 2020 electorate for a variety of swing states projected across the last 4 midterms. The blue wave of 2006 being worse in a geographic projection than the 2010 red wave shows the realignment quite starkly.
Geographic projections miss the individual voter shift, but are a correlate of that effect, so it's an okay first-order approximation. Dem midterm edge among educated voters is clearest in Georgia, where the GOP base relies disproportionately on non-college whites.
Additionally, the explosive growth of metro areas in Georgia, Texas and North Carolina, combined with population loss in the rurals, might actually show an overly-friendly GOP edge in the older midterm years in those states.
Read 6 tweets
12 Apr
Lot of misconceptions about who HR-1 benefits with higher voter turnout.

Here's a simple regression of how a county's turnout change from 2012 (as a % of 2012 votes) correlates with 2020 Democratic margin (weighted by votes cast). Not *at all* clear that the GOP is hurt by this.
I'm sharing this with caution because of ecological fallacy risk; we don't know who is the surge voter from this regression. I'm just trying to see if there's an obvious correlation about which party gains with higher turnout in presidential years benefits. I can't see any.
This is actually suggesting that there is an ever-so-slight correlation between higher turnout and a small Republican lean, but I really don't feel comfortable drawing that conclusion given that the granularity of the data points is only at a county level. Use this with caution.
Read 5 tweets
11 Apr
To summarize how bad of a candidate Rick Santorum is, he's one of the very few politicians who managed to turn incumbency into a large disadvantage.
How this man thought he could ever run for President and win, I truly do not know, but never doubt the hubris of a DC politician surrounded by lobbyists.
nothing in particular sparked this tweet I just think any time is a good time to laugh at Rick Santorum
Read 4 tweets

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