THREAD
#Myanmar is NOT becoming 'like Syria' and is not 'descending into chaos'
No doubt, Myanmar is facing a catastrophic emergency of immense proportions and requires urgent support.
But...
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #May4coup #MyanmarCoup
#Myanmar is NOT becoming 'like Syria' and is not 'descending into chaos'
No doubt, Myanmar is facing a catastrophic emergency of immense proportions and requires urgent support.
But...
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar #May4coup #MyanmarCoup
https://twitter.com/cvdom2021/status/1389469511779164169
Myanmar is NOT taking in thousands of 'foreign fighters' from Afghanistan or other protracted int'l war zones.
Myanmar is NOT seeing millions of dollars of funding handed to all sides of the conflict by regional and global powers, nor international Islamist networks
Myanmar is NOT seeing millions of dollars of funding handed to all sides of the conflict by regional and global powers, nor international Islamist networks
Myanmar is NOT being taken over by ISIS
Myanmar is NOT prone to sectarian violence between communities (despite a few elite-orchestrated anti-Islamic attacks in '12-13 and '16-17).
Myanmar has almost NEVER seen communities of different ethnicities fight each other directly.
Myanmar is NOT prone to sectarian violence between communities (despite a few elite-orchestrated anti-Islamic attacks in '12-13 and '16-17).
Myanmar has almost NEVER seen communities of different ethnicities fight each other directly.
Myanmar's armed groups have NOT suddenly emerged due to state failure + proxy warfare
They HAVE been there for decades (some cases since before independence) and have well-formed political agendas and social bases
Most of the dividing lines of conflict ARE well established.
They HAVE been there for decades (some cases since before independence) and have well-formed political agendas and social bases
Most of the dividing lines of conflict ARE well established.
Myanmar IS in crisis because an elected government that won a landslide was suddenly put in jail (didn't happen in Syria).
Myanmar IS developing a pretty unified opposition movement including the elected government and dozens of key armed groups and political parties.
Myanmar IS developing a pretty unified opposition movement including the elected government and dozens of key armed groups and political parties.
Myanmar's primary new conflict is pretty two-sided. It is:
A widespread national uprising led by a diverse National Unity Government (NUG), using general strikes, protests, boycotts & assymetrical warfare
vs
A closed military clique using only extreme violence & coercion
A widespread national uprising led by a diverse National Unity Government (NUG), using general strikes, protests, boycotts & assymetrical warfare
vs
A closed military clique using only extreme violence & coercion
NUG has offered the 20+ ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) a Federal Democratic system of gov't as long demanded.
In response 7-8 EAOs are co-developing a joint political roadmap while at least 6 are providing NUG sanctuary, logistical assistance or training.
In response 7-8 EAOs are co-developing a joint political roadmap while at least 6 are providing NUG sanctuary, logistical assistance or training.
We will likely see many months or years of unconventional warfare,
..with NUG and allies defying SAC full control, stretching military & multiplying the costs of clinging to power
If successful, bases will be easier to take, defections will increase, generals will be isolated
..with NUG and allies defying SAC full control, stretching military & multiplying the costs of clinging to power
If successful, bases will be easier to take, defections will increase, generals will be isolated
If not successful, then we can expect decade+ of:
- Exile/prison for tens of thousands of dissidents
- Capacity drain from gov't due to purge of suspected enemies
- Outpouring of conflict refugees
- Omni-present intelligence - checkpoints, teashops etc.
- End of free media
- Exile/prison for tens of thousands of dissidents
- Capacity drain from gov't due to purge of suspected enemies
- Outpouring of conflict refugees
- Omni-present intelligence - checkpoints, teashops etc.
- End of free media
Any assumption that decreased state control would lead to an eruption of localised conflicts would be misplaced.
Intra and inter-ethnic conflicts have been generated and sustained due to Tatmadaw divide&rule strategy.
Tatmadaw has not been holding the country together.
Intra and inter-ethnic conflicts have been generated and sustained due to Tatmadaw divide&rule strategy.
Tatmadaw has not been holding the country together.
While certain locales remain at high risk, e.g. Rakhine State and northern Shan State...
... and some militias and border guard forces will be unpredictable, amid lowered revenues and reduced backing from military...
... nothing could drive these conflicts more than SAC rule
... and some militias and border guard forces will be unpredictable, amid lowered revenues and reduced backing from military...
... nothing could drive these conflicts more than SAC rule
Among other major EAOs:
- Around 6 have tried to remain neutral to retain ceasefire territories (incl. at least 3 that met SAC)
- 2 or 3 continue insurgencies independently, actively weakening SAC but refusing to endorse NUG
If NUG wins, many will accept its federal deal
- Around 6 have tried to remain neutral to retain ceasefire territories (incl. at least 3 that met SAC)
- 2 or 3 continue insurgencies independently, actively weakening SAC but refusing to endorse NUG
If NUG wins, many will accept its federal deal
Similarly, regional powers, the business community, and multiple militia leaders are essentially sitting & watching.
They have little incentive to back the arrogant, inward-looking and incompetent SAC but are not big risk-takers either.
Most will likely go with the flow
They have little incentive to back the arrogant, inward-looking and incompetent SAC but are not big risk-takers either.
Most will likely go with the flow
In summary, Myanmar is not descending into this 👇
This is a revolution, waged by a vast network of individuals & organisations who have agency, purpose and meaning.
The key factors that have driven Syria into intractable chaos do not exist in Myanmar.
This is a revolution, waged by a vast network of individuals & organisations who have agency, purpose and meaning.
The key factors that have driven Syria into intractable chaos do not exist in Myanmar.
https://twitter.com/NoContextHumans/status/1386616882795630592
Myanmar's central emergency is the total war being waged by the isolated military against its own people.
The Myanmar people need concerted and pro-active diplomatic, humanitarian and political support.
Nothing will be less stable and more chaotic than continued junta rule.
The Myanmar people need concerted and pro-active diplomatic, humanitarian and political support.
Nothing will be less stable and more chaotic than continued junta rule.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
