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After RCSS collectors allegedly seized equipment from the #Myanmar military, it retaliated with two symbolic bouts of shelling near the RCSS HQ area. The RCSS has viewed this as a direct message implying ‘we can attack your HQ’. 2/9
The coordinated nature of the attacks, from two separate locations, and the fact that they were so close to the border with Thailand, suggests that senior commanders were involved. And the RCSS have considered this a major infringement on the terms of the NCA. 3/9
This after 2 years of political deadlock, as the military has blocked Shan-wide ‘national dialogues’, which form a crucial part of the negotiated dialogue ‘framework'. Meanwhile, RCSS has expanded into northern Shan, is fighting with other armed orgs and is taxing heavily. 4/9
It also comes despite an RCSS delegation joining Union Day celebrations and holding side talks with government negotiators in NPT just days ago. Meanwhile, the other major EAO in the NCA process, the KNU remains skeptical and dismayed at the current state of negotiations. 5/9
At best, this represents a downward spiral of distrust, which has made all sides more skeptical of the others, leading to a constant cycle of defensive actions that are perceived as offensive. 6/9
At worst, the formation of a tentative China-backed truce between the military and the United Wa State Party and its allies in the north, has encouraged the Tatmadaw to pivot back to the southeast and to intentionally spark new conflicts there. 7/9
The latter is in line with the Tatmadaw’s 3-decades-old strategy of keeping ceasefires with the majority of groups, and rotating military offensives from group-to-group depending on who looks like they might be getting too big for their britches. 8/9
In either scenario, conflict is escalating in southeast Myanmar. Displacement of, and violence against, civilians is likely to increase. This cycle of suffering will be Myanmar’s never-ending reality without serious commitment from those in power to a political settlement. END
