This morning, we're releasing a major change in our COVID-19 model (➡️covid19.healthdata.org). We're now incorporating excess mortality to approximate the total COVID-19 death rate worldwide.
Our understanding of the magnitude of COVID-19 to date has been much worse than what we have been thinking. 🗓️ We are also extending our COVID-19 projections out to September 1, 2021 (they previously went out to August 1, 2021).
With this total COVID-19 mortality adjustment, these are the countries that we estimate currently have the highest total COVID-19 deaths .vs. reported COVID-19 deaths: Image
This map reflects what we estimate to be the total COVID-19 death rate through May 3, 2021: Image
What kind of statistical methods are we using to calculate total COVID-19 mortality? Dr. Murray explains:
Reported COVID-19 mortality is strongly related to how much testing a country has done. So total COVID-19 mortality includes predicted ratios, and we've used these kinds of statistical methods in our annual #GBDstudy.
Key takeaways on our new modeling approach outlined below. 📺 To watch the full video of Dr. Murray discussing total COVID-19 mortality, visit: bit.ly/IHME-Episodes Image
Our press release on this major update to our modeling methods ⬇️ healthdata.org/news-release/c…
Detailed description of our new excess mortality methods ⬇️ healthdata.org/special-analys…
COVID-19 is a larger cause of a death in the United States than the 1918 influenza pandemic, says IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. The total population size of the US was much smaller back then, so it's not the same rate. ➡️covid19.healthdata.org
In addition to incorporating total COVID-19 mortality, we've also extended our projections out to September 1 (they previously went out to August 1). Dr. Murray shares key model insights 📈🌍🌏🌎⤵️

COVID-19 model📊covid19.healthdata.org
Full video 📺 bit.ly/IHME-Episodes
COVID-19 is the #1 cause of death in the world this week. We are observing about 30,000 deaths per day and estimate that 21% of people globally have been infected as of May 3. healthdata.org/sites/default/… Image
We are expecting 9.4 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19 by September 1, 2021 at the global level, according to our model. That’s an extra nearly 2.5 million deaths from now until September 1.

COVID-19 model 📊 covid19.healthdata.org
Full video 📺 bit.ly/IHME-Episodes

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @IHME_UW

29 Jan
📄📌PRESS RELEASE: Our new COVID-19 forecasts show the possibility of a spring spike in United States deaths if variants spread widely and people let down their guard.

Details in the thread ⤵️
Our #COVID19 forecasts, which you can find in the link below, now incorporate two new virus variants:

B.1.351 (first detected in South Africa)
B.1.1.7 (first detected in the UK)
covid19.healthdata.org/global
In a worst-case scenario, with widespread transmission of the B.1.351 variant and mobility returning to pre-pandemic levels in the vaccinated, the US is predicted to see approximately 654,000 total deaths by May 1.
Read 18 tweets
23 Oct 20
Our #COVID19 model and our methods are now publicly available in @NatureMedicine. Congratulations to our team, who have been working around the clock on this.

Read the #openaccess article: bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
🚨IMPORTANT🚨 The Nature Medicine article is best used as a guide to our forecasting methods. Our most up-to-date view on the pandemic is reflected in our public model, which currently extends to Feb 1.

View the latest update: covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
Our forecasts are helping national and state-level decision-makers make more informed decisions on how to confront the pandemic at the local level.

Our US #COVID19 model was published today in @naturemedicine: bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
Read 9 tweets
11 Sep 20
Thank your feedback, questions, and critiques on our #COVID19 model. We’ve updated our FAQ, and are working to incorporate more feedback into our model and affiliated resources, including our Estimation Updates blog.🧵The following is a thread addressing recently asked questions:
What does our model say about expected new #COVID19 cases?

We are forecasting surges of new cases in Kansas, Missouri, New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia in the next week or two. Image
Where do we expect fall #COVID19 death surges?

We currently projects surges in deaths on Jan 1 (if 95% public masking is not adhered) in these states: AL, AZ, AK, CA, DE, CO, KS, IN, IA, MD, MT, NE, NM, NV, NY, NH, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, UT, VA, WA. Image
Read 22 tweets
7 Jul 20
What’s new this update?
◾ ️208,255 #COVID19 deaths in the US through November 1, 2020
◾️ More than 45,000 lives could be saved if 95% of people wear masks in public

View the latest projections ➡️ covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-… Image
“We can now see the projected trajectory of the epidemic into the fall, and many states are expected to experience significant increases in cases and deaths in September and October,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray

Press release📣healthdata.org/news-release/n… Image
“Mask mandates delay the need for re-imposing closures of businesses and have huge economic benefits.” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.

Press release📣healthdata.org/news-release/n…
Read 7 tweets
11 Jun 20
Our director, Dr. Christopher Murray, will be presenting our #COVID19 Projections for the Middle East and North Afrca in a webinar hosted by
@ghi_aub
that will begin shortly. We will be live-tweeting his discussion.
We started modeling COVID-19 in March to predict the surge in hospital patients. We've tried to expand our model to answer many questions.
We produce a reference forecast; what we think is most likely to happen. We use the modeling framework to address a long list of alternative scenarios.
Read 26 tweets
23 Apr 20
NEW: Our 4/22 model release involves updated estimates for previously included locations in the US and Europe, and a more in-depth examination of the results.

We also have #COVID19 predictions for Puerto Rico and by province in Canada.

🆕healthdata.org/covid/updates

(Thread)
As we add new locations to our production pipeline, we will focus on producing estimates for locations that have reported a minimum of 50 cumulative deaths to date.
For example, in today’s release we show results for four Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec) that have met the threshold, but not for other provinces. ➡️covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Read 23 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(