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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
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23 Oct, 9 tweets, 8 min read
Our #COVID19 model and our methods are now publicly available in @NatureMedicine. Congratulations to our team, who have been working around the clock on this.

Read the #openaccess article: bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
🚨IMPORTANT🚨 The Nature Medicine article is best used as a guide to our forecasting methods. Our most up-to-date view on the pandemic is reflected in our public model, which currently extends to Feb 1.

View the latest update: covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
Our forecasts are helping national and state-level decision-makers make more informed decisions on how to confront the pandemic at the local level.

Our US #COVID19 model was published today in @naturemedicine: bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
We focused on 3 scenarios that will determine the course of #COVID19 in the US: easing mandates, a reference scenario (what is likely to happen), and universal mask use. Under all 3, we’ll likely continue to face a public health challenge well into 2021. bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
Our findings indicate that universal mask use – an affordable and low-impact intervention – can save lives. While 95% mask use seems high, places where it’s been implemented have seen a decline or halt in transmission in many places around the world. bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
It’s hard to overstate the life-saving benefit of increasing mask use in the coming months. US residents will need to choose: wear a mask, or risk stringent and economically-damaging mandates – or, in the absence of either, an even higher death toll. bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
Our #COVID19 projections will be extended to March 1, 2021 in early November.

For the most up-to-date projections on the pandemic, we recommend consulting our public #COVID19 Projections visualization tool: covid19.healthdata.org
We want to express our utmost appreciation to @naturemedicine for their fast turn around on getting this article published.

Read the #openaccess article: bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
More #COVID19 resources:
🆕healthdata.org/covid/updates
🔎healthdata.org/covid/faqs
⬇️healthdata.org/covid/data-dow…
📣healthdata.org/covid/press-re…

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More from @IHME_UW

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
11 Sep
Thank your feedback, questions, and critiques on our #COVID19 model. We’ve updated our FAQ, and are working to incorporate more feedback into our model and affiliated resources, including our Estimation Updates blog.🧵The following is a thread addressing recently asked questions:
What does our model say about expected new #COVID19 cases?

We are forecasting surges of new cases in Kansas, Missouri, New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia in the next week or two. Image
Where do we expect fall #COVID19 death surges?

We currently projects surges in deaths on Jan 1 (if 95% public masking is not adhered) in these states: AL, AZ, AK, CA, DE, CO, KS, IN, IA, MD, MT, NE, NM, NV, NY, NH, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, UT, VA, WA. Image
Read 22 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
7 Jul
What’s new this update?
◾ ️208,255 #COVID19 deaths in the US through November 1, 2020
◾️ More than 45,000 lives could be saved if 95% of people wear masks in public

View the latest projections ➡️ covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-… Image
“We can now see the projected trajectory of the epidemic into the fall, and many states are expected to experience significant increases in cases and deaths in September and October,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray

Press release📣healthdata.org/news-release/n… Image
“Mask mandates delay the need for re-imposing closures of businesses and have huge economic benefits.” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.

Press release📣healthdata.org/news-release/n…
Read 7 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
11 Jun
Our director, Dr. Christopher Murray, will be presenting our #COVID19 Projections for the Middle East and North Afrca in a webinar hosted by
@ghi_aub
that will begin shortly. We will be live-tweeting his discussion.
We started modeling COVID-19 in March to predict the surge in hospital patients. We've tried to expand our model to answer many questions.
We produce a reference forecast; what we think is most likely to happen. We use the modeling framework to address a long list of alternative scenarios.
Read 26 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
23 Apr
NEW: Our 4/22 model release involves updated estimates for previously included locations in the US and Europe, and a more in-depth examination of the results.

We also have #COVID19 predictions for Puerto Rico and by province in Canada.

🆕healthdata.org/covid/updates

(Thread)
As we add new locations to our production pipeline, we will focus on producing estimates for locations that have reported a minimum of 50 cumulative deaths to date.
For example, in today’s release we show results for four Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec) that have met the threshold, but not for other provinces. ➡️covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Read 23 tweets
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Profile picture
26 Mar
#BREAKING: Researchers from @IHME_UW find demand for beds in US hospital intensive care units is likely to far exceed capacity for #COVID19 patients as early as the second week of April. Press release➡️bit.ly/IHME-COVID19
“The trajectory of the (#COVID19) pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of @IHME_UW.
Health systems can help address excess #COVID19 demand by:

✅Postponing elective procedures
✅Increasing # of beds above licensed capacity
✅Establishing emergency field hospitals
✅Reducing staff-to-patient ratios.
Read 13 tweets

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