India set a new daily record of over 414,000 cases, nearly 4,000 reported deaths. While cases are not growing as rapidly as recently, they are still not declining significantly.
Implementing very strong restrictions would result in cases declining rapidly.
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The number of known infections of the Indian variant in Poland has reached 16. Three cases of the Brazilian variant were found in the southern region of Silesia. Poland tightened quarantine rules for people traveling from selected countries.
New cases in Poland (left axis, blue curve) have declined recently but are still very high.
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New cases in Italy have declined to 30% of peak, under 10,000 cases per day. However, the rate of decline could be much more rapid and the benefit would be great if there was a focus on refining stopping transmission
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New cases in Spain are at a seven day average of 6,300 cases per day. Here again, the benefit of achieving a more rapid decline makes a huge difference.
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I just had a chance to read this book review, and the description of societal/institutional failure is spot on. One modification I would make is inserted below
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Michael Lewis' 'The Premonition' Is A Sweeping Indictment Of The CDC npr.org/2021/05/03/991…
"Much has been written about how the pandemic came to be, but not so well known are the details about how it was able to spread so quickly in the United States.
"Author Michael Lewis has written a new book, The Premonition, that fills in those blanks.
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"And it is a sweeping indictment of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)
"Lewis, also author of Liar's Poker, Moneyball, The Blind Side and The Big Short, says a public health doctor in California named Charity Dean is one of the people who saw the real danger
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India's new cases and deaths are lower than the peak in past few days, reported cases are down from 402,110 cases to 392,562; 370,059; 355,828; 382,691.
We want to see a strong and sustained decline.
The decline is happening as restrictions are being increased.
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Increasing restrictions are visible in a "sringency index" but the restrictions are not as strong as earlier.
Achieving a rapid decline is the best ways to save lives and livelihoods. Restoring economic activity doesn't work well when balancing tradeoffs.
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The 7 day average of Brazil's cases has declined since the end of March going from over 77,000 to 59,000, a very slow decline.
Brazil's over 400,000 total deaths are second only to the US, with over 576,000 deaths. US also has most reported cases: over 32 million.
How safe will it be to have the olympics in Tokyo?
Six torch staffers diagnosed with COVID-19. All of them assisted with traffic control and wore masks.
India reported over 400,000 new cases, over 3,500 new deaths (both likely under-reported)
US will deny entry to most foreigners who have stayed in India within last 14 days, starting May 4
However, there is no quarantine for returning Americans, as from China Jan 31 2020.
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Simultaneously, the US is sending oxygen tanks to India to help medical care. International cooperation is essential for better outcomes for all. It would be wise to invest more in helping all countries eliminate Covid.
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France has reported its first confirmed case of the Indian Covid variant.
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