I just had a chance to read this book review, and the description of societal/institutional failure is spot on. One modification I would make is inserted below

1/

Michael Lewis' 'The Premonition' Is A Sweeping Indictment Of The CDC npr.org/2021/05/03/991…
"Much has been written about how the pandemic came to be, but not so well known are the details about how it was able to spread so quickly in the United States.

"Author Michael Lewis has written a new book, The Premonition, that fills in those blanks.

2/
"And it is a sweeping indictment of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)

"Lewis, also author of Liar's Poker, Moneyball, The Blind Side and The Big Short, says a public health doctor in California named Charity Dean is one of the people who saw the real danger

3/
"..of the virus before the rest of the country did.

"No one should have to be as brave as Charity Dean was as a local public health officer. To do her job, she had to be brave in a way that brought tears to my eyes,"

4/
"And when I first met her, I realized I had a character because all over her house were like these Post-it notes reminding her to be brave, like ... 'courage is a muscle memory' or 'the tallest oak in the forest was once just a little nut.'

5/
"She had all these kind of inspirational things. And when you get into the story of what Charity Dean ... had to do on the ground, your hair stands up on the back of your neck."

6/
"Lewis writes about how Dean tried and tried to get the state officials around her to look at the data and act to make sure the virus didn't spread. She put it all on the line, her reputation, her job.

7/
"And across the country, there was another group of doctors led by Carter Mescher trying to do the same thing at the federal level.

"It was incredible to me that there was this kind of secret group of seven doctors — they called themselves the Wolverines

8/
"— who were positioned in interesting places in and around the federal government, who had been together for the better part of 15 years and who had come together whenever there was a threat of a disease outbreak to help organize the country's response," Lewis says.

9/
"According to Lewis' reporting, the CDC basically had two positions on the pandemic early on. Early on it was that there was nothing to see here — that this is not a big deal. It's being overblown.

10/
"And then there was this very quick pivot when it started spreading in the U.S. and the position became it's too late and there's nothing we can do.

11/
"...the tragedy that became the American coronavirus pandemic was a perfect storm of the reaction of the president at the time,. the long history of politicization of the CDC and the lack of a public health care system all coming together.

12/
The piece I would add is that underlying "politicization" is regulatory capture -- the pervasive influence of "special" interests.

13/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

7 May
India set a new daily record of over 414,000 cases, nearly 4,000 reported deaths. While cases are not growing as rapidly as recently, they are still not declining significantly.

Implementing very strong restrictions would result in cases declining rapidly.

1/
The number of known infections of the Indian variant in Poland has reached 16. Three cases of the Brazilian variant were found in the southern region of Silesia. Poland tightened quarantine rules for people traveling from selected countries.

reuters.com/world/europe/p…

2/
New cases in Poland (left axis, blue curve) have declined recently but are still very high.

3/
Read 5 tweets
5 May
India's new cases and deaths are lower than the peak in past few days, reported cases are down from 402,110 cases to 392,562; 370,059; 355,828; 382,691.

We want to see a strong and sustained decline.

The decline is happening as restrictions are being increased.

1/
Increasing restrictions are visible in a "sringency index" but the restrictions are not as strong as earlier.

Achieving a rapid decline is the best ways to save lives and livelihoods. Restoring economic activity doesn't work well when balancing tradeoffs.

2/
The 7 day average of Brazil's cases has declined since the end of March going from over 77,000 to 59,000, a very slow decline.

Brazil's over 400,000 total deaths are second only to the US, with over 576,000 deaths. US also has most reported cases: over 32 million.

3/
Read 7 tweets
4 May
More people diagnosed with COVID in past 2 weeks than in first 6 months of pandemic

India and Brazil account for more than half of last week’s cases.

1/

nydailynews.com/news/national/…
How safe will it be to have the olympics in Tokyo?
Six torch staffers diagnosed with COVID-19. All of them assisted with traffic control and wore masks.

2/

reuters.com/lifestyle/spor…
Brazil exceeded 400,000 COVID-19 deaths at the end of the country's deadliest month of the pandemic.

More have died in the first four months of this year than in all of 2020. The death toll jumped from 300,000 to 400,000 in the past five weeks alone.

3/
npr.org/sections/coron…
Read 4 tweets
3 May
Project reveals asymptomatic spread in schools

"A pilot project in the Omaha Public School district detected new SARS-CoV-2 infections which wouldn't have been detected otherwise...

1/

unmc.edu/news.cfm?match… via @TwitterAPI
"indicating that infection and case rates in schools are much higher that what's being reported

"Infection rates detected..were two-and-a-half times higher for staff and nearly six times higher for students than what was routinely observed.

2/
"Additionally, the project found almost 10 times the cases per population than what was observed through community testing in the surrounding county.

"This data shows the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in school-aged children is being dramatically underestimated,"

3/
Read 5 tweets
1 May
India reported over 400,000 new cases, over 3,500 new deaths (both likely under-reported)

US will deny entry to most foreigners who have stayed in India within last 14 days, starting May 4

However, there is no quarantine for returning Americans, as from China Jan 31 2020.

1/
Simultaneously, the US is sending oxygen tanks to India to help medical care. International cooperation is essential for better outcomes for all. It would be wise to invest more in helping all countries eliminate Covid.

2/
France has reported its first confirmed case of the Indian Covid variant.

3/
Read 6 tweets
25 Apr
#ZeroCovid New Zealand hosts a 50,000 fan concert, the biggest event since the pandemic began

1/

nypost.com/2021/04/25/500…
Washington state cases increasing rapidly: 4th "wave"
abcnews.go.com/US/washington-…

2/
Japan has not declared it is canceling Olympics despite their third wave

3/
forbes.com/sites/tommybee…
Read 7 tweets

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