Q: Cons say big wins coz "we're delivering on the people's priorities" -- but in truth #Covid19 has delayed most delivery, and folk get that, bar the vaccine, which was huge tick.

So Q: come 2024? Do cons need delivery? Or will culture war and a smattering of pork cut it? /1
I don't know the answer to this. Is the success of fueling "a narrative" fuelling the idea that politics is now decoupled from delivery -- i.e it's enough to talk about the "people's priorities" in a bullish way that folk identify with, because they don't actually expect much./2
Because deliver is going to be hard -- fiscal recovery from the pandemic is going to crimp spending if @RishiSunak has his way; #brexit (the big winner) is a drag on industry in Red Wall areas, the NHS has huge backlogs from Covid...i.e there are lots of challenges /3
@RishiSunak The 'levelling up' agenda -- vague to the point of vacuity -- is perhaps a symptom of a fundamentally propagandistic approach to politics which puts value/identity foremost precisely because delivery is so hard, and takes longer than single cycles/4
@RishiSunak Actually on these results @BorisJohnson must be a very fair bet for two terms or even more, but does he and his party/team really have the political courage and tenacity to deliver over the longer term on stuff where they do have ambition? Skills, HE/FE, Net Zero, Science/R&D? /5
@RishiSunak @BorisJohnson I've recently been reading the Jeremy Heywood biography...it's amazing how entrenched and long-standing so many of the big issues are: social care, university costs, the skills agenda (particularly for the bottom 40%), productivity.../6
@RishiSunak @BorisJohnson So do you seek to deliver real change, over time -- or essentially run pork- barrel gimmicks, like Freeports, which the OBR say will make zero difference to growth, displacing activity (which may be the point) rather than creating wealth /7
@RishiSunak @BorisJohnson The #Covid19 pandemic postponed the reckoning on a lot of questions and -- despite glitches and the chumocracy charges -- the vaccine (which is a massive coup) wiped that slate clean. But Covid also squeezes space for delivery ahead of 2024. Does that matter? I really dunno. ENDS

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More from @pmdfoster

3 May
🚨🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🐟🐟🐟⛴⛴🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨NEW: remember how Govt said #brexit would lead to sustainable fishing? Mmmm 🤔 now fishing NGOs accuse govt of reneging on those promises. This doesn’t look good. Stay with me/1

on.ft.com/3ueGkv4
First those pledges. When the Fisheries Bill was tabled in Jan @MPGeorgeEustice and Theresa Villiers promised fishing policies that would be "sustainable", protect our "wonderful blue belt" and based on "*health of our fish stocks* not vested interests"/2

gov.uk/government/new…
@MPGeorgeEustice But now me and @jimbrunsden learn that in negotiations in Brussels the UK is pushing for "flexibility" to transfer catches of Haddock, Hake, Monkfish from the better-stocked North Sea to the areas West of Scotland - Area VIa in this chart /3
Read 10 tweets
29 Apr
As @scotfoodjames @scotfooddrink have pointed out the money-quote in the EFRA report on #Brexit and ongoing seafood/fish exporter woes (well-documented) is that cross-party group of MPs are calling for UK to do a vet deal with the EU. It would be a start, but not a magic bullet/1
@scotfoodjames @scotfooddrink As @MPGeorgeEustice told cmme the govt won't do "dynamic alignment" required for a Swiss-style deal, so we're left with long-failed UK arguments for "pragmatism" which EU doesn't really feel it needs to entertain. We'll wait, let Brits come begging, is what I hear /2
@scotfoodjames @scotfooddrink @MPGeorgeEustice Difficulty for UK is that the upsides from these trade deals really don't much exist for agrifoods -- really hard to see how RoW trade accounts for losses caused by cutting our noses off to spite our face with the EU. See latest @Foodanddrinkfed numbers./3
Read 6 tweets
27 Apr
🚨🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧🍾🍾🍾🍾🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨🚨🚨NEW: English sparkling wine (aka ‘Brexit Juice’, as some called) producers feeling the #brexit pinch — transport, labelling and customs issues adding frustration and costs. Want govt to do more to help. /1

on.ft.com/3aJcpU6
No need to labour the point these days, but the biggest issue is still groupage -- smaller exporters struggling to get freight companies to take single or double pallets. They'd prefer to run back to EU empty than risk hassle of being stopped, per @Wine_GB /2
@Wine_GB The industry accepts that Brexit means Brexit but wants the govt to do more to help, says @wstauk boss @WSTA_Miles lowering excise duty rates, making it easier to import equipment by getting rid of tariffs and consolidating more tariff codes /3
Read 10 tweets
26 Apr
NEW: Survey by @BritainThinks for @GreenAllianceUK finds Brits ready to see the 'greening' of the tax system -- but experts @ChiefExecCCC @jbuckland13 @timbolord warn the govt needs move early & carefully on issues like road pricing to avoid backlash/1

ft.com/content/ced2b0…
@BritainThinks @GreenAllianceUK @ChiefExecCCC @jbuckland13 @timbolord Road pricing is obvious example -- the shift to electric vehicles will cost the Treasury £30bn a year in lost fuel duties — equivalent to a 6p rise in income tax -- so the money has to come from somewhere, and as @timbolord says, when explained this way, become easier /2
@BritainThinks @GreenAllianceUK @ChiefExecCCC @jbuckland13 @timbolord It's also possible to phase in slowly, as @jbuckland13 advises, to compensate for lost revenues that will also taper away over time -- and it can be advertises as a fairer approach, with higher rates on city/congested driving than rural areas where cars are essential/3
Read 8 tweets
19 Apr
🚨🚨🇪🇺🇬🇧💉💊💉💊🇬🇧🇪🇺🚨🚨 So. Drug industry sounding alarms over cost of #brexit red tape on supplies to Northern Ireland, warning of “sharp curtailment” of treatments to patients from Jan 1 2023 without a fix. @SarahNev and me in @FT Stay with me /1 on.ft.com/3gnuRp4
@SarahNev @FT First the quick backstory.

The NI Protocol requires drugs going from GB into NI to follow EU rules - see the list in Annex 1 (20) of the Protocol...just a taster here, but it's a long list /2

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
@SarahNev @FT There was a grace period to give businesses time to adapt agreed to run to Dec 31 2021, but presenting the Protocol to Parliament in Dec last year, the govt seemed committed to business adjusting to requirments on batch testing & import requirements. /3

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 10 tweets
7 Apr
🚨🚨NEW: rare Labour intervention on #brexit debate - Rachel Reeves @RachelReevesMP tells me in @FinancialTimes that “arrogant” Tory govt is “disturbingly relaxed” about hit to exporters/SMEs from new red tape as @OBR_UK spells out costs. Stay with me/1

on.ft.com/327nRVb
@RachelReevesMP @FinancialTimes @OBR_UK So Labour have generally shied away from #brexit consequences debate -- politically too many minds are made up, so it's a lose-lose issue - but back in March, after Budget, Reeves wrote to OBR noting lack of impact assessment by @RishiSunak
of #Brexit /2

@RachelReevesMP @FinancialTimes @OBR_UK @RishiSunak The OBR chair Richard Hughes replied to Reeves on March 29, setting out in detail it's assessments to date on impacts of #Brexit - which it reckons at 0.5% short term to GDP in 2021 and 4% productivity hit over longer term (15 years) /3
Read 17 tweets

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