I assume that every single rational human being on earth who is somehow intelligent enough to understand the current shitshow Trump and Netanyahu created is not exactly what everyone expected
No, the regime in Iran will not collapse anytime soon
No, Pahlavi won’t save you
Yes, Iran will continue to fight back
Yes, civil war will start
Yes, IS and AQ will exploit this chaos
Yes, we entered another war that might last a decade or more destabilising the entire Middle East
Yes, thousands of innocent people will get killed
Yes, tens of thousands of refugees will have to find a way out of this
the most poisonous reactions I received on this post came from Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Ireland, the US, Brazil, India, France, ...
Must say it's been a highly amusing day scrolling through all of these
Now the IS bay'a storm seems to be over we can compare the Bay'a campaign of 2019 with that of 2022. 1. In 2019 The Islamic State published pledges of allegiance from 15 countries vs. 13 in 2022 2. In 2019; significantly more pledges from Iraq and Syria, now Africa leads 1/
4. Gone since 2019: Bangladesh, Tunisia, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Azerbaijan 5. New since 2022: Sahel, India and Central-Africa (Congo & Mozambique) 6. Most surprising: no more Bay'a from Tunisia. Bangladesh, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan had small cells, so no surprise they're gone 3/
All feedback welcome. It’s just a vague idea for now but I think it would be worth the time looking into this
this for example is a rather simplistic attempt to compare The Islamic State with the Nizari-Isma'ili (aka the Assassins) atheistpapers.com/2015/08/06/sic…