A few observations regarding the trend towards strong HODLing...
1) No way are we entering a bear market. That's obvious this week from price action, but not so obvious 2 weeks ago when the sky was falling.
2) Coins moving to corporate treasuries likely making an impact.
3) Grayscale Investment Trust now accounting for 3.5% of the supply only allows for inflows of BTC into cold storage (paper is traded, no coins move).
4) Leverage markets that grew in size from 2017 may have had a part to play also. Lots of coins used moved in order to trade them, with leverage less coins need to move for the same amount of speculation.
5) In the early days of Bitcoin, it was used as a currency (Silkroad era) so makes sense coins moved between more liquid hands.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This revisit of lower price has created incredibly strong price validation for Bitcoin about $1T cap. 14% of the supply last moved above $1T cap.
This is a key line in the sand imprinted into BTC's price discovery, an area of immense support.
Anyone thinking we are going into a prolong price correction needs to know about the rate of new users coming into the network per day. We're in the middle of a bull market with a hockey stick of new adoption, especially in the last 2 weeks.
Coins continue to move to very strong holders (the Rick Astleys of this world). And moving at all-time-high rates.
Chinese miners went offline 3hrs into the difficulty adjustment.
The difficulty adjusts every 2 weeks to match the natural increase in hash rate from miners. This keeps block times to a steady 10 mins. If you're going to slow the network down, this is the best window to do so.
9.5hrs into the difficulty adjustment, 9000 BTC was deposited into Binance, this provided enough selling pressure to drop the Bitcoin price below $59k support, forcing the $4.9b of liquidations.
It's an interesting timing of events.
We have 11 more days before the next difficulty adjustment corrects for any loss in miner hash rate. Note the hash rate is already returning to the network.
This is an addendum to my price crash post mortem thread:
We just saw the single largest 1-day drop in mining hash rate since Nov 2017. The hash rate on the network essentially halved, causing mayhem in BTC price as it crashed.
The power outage in Xinjiang (which powers a significant amount of the BTC mining network) was known before the BTC price crash. Here's local news on 15th April.
9000 BTC was sent into Binance, read that as a sell off of those coins.
I'd note that Binance serves volume from Asia more than the West. It's likely this was sent in from a whale with closer knowledge to happenings in China.